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2015 pre-season testing thread!!!

Discussion in 'Formula 1' started by BrightLampShade, Jan 31, 2015.

  1. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    And so it begins...

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    Hopes and dreams for another day before reality kicks in

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  2. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Great stuff. Finally we can start piecing the puzzle together for 2015.

    I think there are a few pointers that we can expect. I usually like to have a small speculative bet on the title winner before the season begins, so with that in mind, I look for key things like this:

    Solid Starts
    Mercedes have already performed 19 laps on a shakedown- they will get a lot of mileage without pushing to the limit. You will only ever see a glimpse of their true pace, probably towards the end of testing- then they will bring their full self to Melbourne. Their car visually looks like a logical step from 2014 and a refined version. They look ominous but expect them to be solid first before they then, we assume, deliver the spectacular.

    Williams, who had a a strong Jerez test last year, will again bang in a massive amount of laps, and we can probably expect them to be towards the top of the time sheets as their refined, rock solid car beds in well again.

    'Steps forward'

    Lotus have made some bold claims about hauling themselves towards the higher end of the grid and there is little doubt that with a Mercedes engine and a design with less risk, they should make a better start and get some decent lap times on the board with less fuss than last season. They are coming from a long way back and whilst I don't expect to see them on the Williams or Mercedes pace, I think they will be able to clearly demonstrate improvement and then it becomes a development race. Whether they keep up throughout the season, time will tell.

    Torro Rosso have also been bullish this weekend as they launched their STR10. They have looked a team with some raw potential for the last couple of years actually, with some young talents fighting for points with them. This year, they have gone too far by having 17 year old Verstappen, but from a car and team perspective I would expect them to be in the points mix in most weekends. They continue with Ferrari power, which remains an unknown. However, their bullishness next to Ferrari's low key, downplayed press performance, one would not be a fool to wonder if there are some bigger steps in performance than the Italians are letting on.

    Sleeping Giants?

    Two massive names- McLaren and Ferrari- as well as engine suppliers in Honda and Ferrari themselves, come into 2015 with all sorts of unknowns. The new engine-dominant formula was expected to see Ferrari right up with Mercedes last season, but they found themselves a long way away behind in performance. James Allison had got to grips with the aero problems quite early last season and I expect Ferrari to have a stronger chassis this year, especially as they had seemingly given up the development race well before McLaren last season. Their power unit will almost certainly be stronger this season because that will have embarrassed them, but whether they are a cohesive enough unit to marry that up with the chassis is not clear. They have potential to surprise and I do think they will use their engine upgrades wisely.

    Honda and McLaren will be the subject of plenty of media spotlight. I think they will encounter a whole host of teething problems from Sunday onwards and the media and bookmakers will jump on them for it. However, as we saw last year, the operations come together very quickly for teams and before we knew it Dan Ricciardo had stuck his Red Bull on the podium in Melbourne (well, until the FIA wrestled that away from him!). It will be very difficult to truly measure Honda performance and whilst it will become a little clearer towards the end of testing, it will be quali in Melbourne where we really know. I actually think Honda will do their bit- more interesting will be hearing Alonso and Buttons feedback, body language, and enthusiasm regarding the downforce. Peter Prodromou will be watching closely and by the sounds of things will await that feedback to pursue a range of aero development options. I've a feeling that they will be adding performance regularly and with much more success this season. Something about that McLaren this year looks right- though let's wait and see.

    Smaller Margins For Improvement

    Red Bull were the only other team to win races last year and Ricciardo sounds really pumped to be building from his great start with them last year. However, their aero was arguably the standout last season. Newey had developed another very good car- the issue was that they were not able to power it around the circuit and were losing time in higher speed sectors. For me, that means their real improvement will be engine-based, and Renault are said to have clawed back 50BHP, but Merc have potentially moved the technology forward again. The big concern, were I a RBR supporter, would be that there is little room for improvement outside of their power-unit, and with Newey taking a back seat they have an inexperienced set of people in key areas. I think they will find this season another big challenge and I suspect they will finish outside of the top two constructors for the first time in quite some time.

    Force India started with a solid car last season but their development didn't keep pace with the rest. I got the impression that McLAren got on an upward curve with a view to 2015 whilst Force India were more about being solid. We have yet to see their 2015 trim car- just the livery so far. The way finances have hit Marussia and Caterham, you do worry about Vijays Team continuing to build their profile when the likes of McLaren Honda, Ferrari, and Red Bull are all upgrading their cars through the year. They've got two super drivers though who will deliver the maximum they can. Good luck to them.

    Conclusions?

    Testing will show the teams in the following guises IMO:

    -Williams to be 'star performer'

    -Mercedes to be solid and get through plenty of laps and data just tucked in behind Williams

    -Ferrari to be low key and experimental in testing, but surprise people in Melbourne

    -McLaren to complete just a few laps on Sunday and Monday before hooking it up in time for Melbourne

    -Lotus to have a really good winter and be around 3rd/4th row on the time sheets in testing before being eclipsed by the big guns in Melbourne.


    Constructors Champions: Mercedes. They are too solid to lose the constructors but squabbling team mates do give them something to worry about in the Drivers Championship. Hopefully the racing will be closer, but they should take the title again and odds of 1/4 with the bookies, they are expected to do so.

    Drivers Championship: Nico Rosberg F1 has a funny way of working and I think Rosberg will show a steelyness this time around and will not give an inch. He knows these are his years to capitalise if he ever wants to be world champion and I think Lewis will make some mistakes this time around.(Odds: 4.7 which is just a shade above 7/2 in traditional odds terms)

    Outside bet: Fernando Alonso. McLaren will have a good car this year IMO and Alonso will be mopping up podiums and points when they become available. (Currently 11/1 on Betfair exchange but you will be able to get 20/1 by the end of Monday when McLaren make a very slow, low key start with systems checks)


    Here's to hoping that we get some good, close inter-team battles for race wins, but more importantly that we have no drama like Suzuka last year- a thought and prayer for Michael and Jules.

    #keepfightingmichael

    #forzajules
     
    #2
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2015
  3. El_Bando

    El_Bando Can't remember, where was I?
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    Excellent analysis. Bring it on!
     
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  4. El_Bando

    El_Bando Can't remember, where was I?
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    Usually the team that tops these tests are looking for some publicity. While the good teams sand bag. Will be worrying if Williams tops it. I will be listening out for cars with good traction and stability and good speed in the traps.
     
    #4
  5. allsaintchris.

    allsaintchris. Well-Known Member

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    and Ericsson has already gone backwards.........
     
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  6. 51LV3R8RR04

    51LV3R8RR04 Well-Known Member

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    Its almost rime for me to do my body language thing again!

    Sky sports have nothing on me.
     
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  7. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    Unless it's Mercedes, who probably don't own enough sand bags to be that slow.
     
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  8. El_Bando

    El_Bando Can't remember, where was I?
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    Lol the sand bags are currently left at brackley keeping the snow out.
     
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  9. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    please log in to view this image
     
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  10. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Plenty of systems checks for McLaren so far.

    Mercedes pounding around. Will be interesting to see how Williams fayre when they begin to put a sequence together.
     
    #10

  11. TheJudeanPeoplesFront

    TheJudeanPeoplesFront Well-Known Member

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    Damnit. Knew I should have bet on Lewis this year before the testing!!!!!! Won't get good odds now the Mercedes is crushing it in every aspect <wah>
     
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  12. allsaintchris.

    allsaintchris. Well-Known Member

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    Ferrari showing a bit of pace early on.

    How pissed would Alonso be if Ferrari did produce a decent car this year?
     
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  13. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    He was best priced 4/5 before today anyway- the bookies know he is the likely winner. The value is probably in Rosbergs price.
     
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  14. EternalMSC

    EternalMSC Well-Known Member

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    Bet he wishes he had a get out clause... can you imagine if Vettel wins races in HIS OLD CAR!!!!
     
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  15. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    McLaren: "Ron Dennis: 'Our 2015 livery will change, but I'm not going to say when...'"


    Exciting!
     
    #15
  16. 51LV3R8RR04

    51LV3R8RR04 Well-Known Member

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    YEAHHHHHHHHH VETTEL TOP OF TESTING, HE WILL BE 2015 WDC!!!!

    #FORZAFERRARI


    ...Or considering I'm sane....ish this always means absolutely nothing what so ever right now. Mercedes and their long runs are the real focus point here not some light runs and bits of tweaking.
     
    #16
  17. ched999uk

    ched999uk Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if this is the same as last year when he said they would announce a title sponsor soon???
     
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  18. TheJudeanPeoplesFront

    TheJudeanPeoplesFront Well-Known Member

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    It would be really disappointing if (well, when, most likely) the changes to Mclaren's livery are minor, with the addition of a few sponsors and a little splash of red.

    There's absolutely nowt I can see tying them to silver as a colour this year, so I'm hoping they change it completely. Like others, red and white classic colours would be ideal, but I'm not holding my breath.

    I see Ferrari are doing their classic trick of recent times, take off the sand-bags to see where they really are. Truth is, they'll be fighting for 5th and 6th as usual!
     
    #18
  19. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    A few things as expected really- Mercedes really stepping up the mileage early thanks to an evolution from last years Championship winning car, whilst Williams got themselves up and running too. Those two will likely complete the most laps tomorrow too.

    Ferrari we assume were experimenting as they topped the timsheets from a couple of shorter stints.

    McLaren are bedding in their engine into the overall package, and will continue to do so with Jenson tomorrow. I have to say though, that car looks labsolutely beautiful. Did I detect a flavour of Brawn GP when I took a glance of it turning in today? Their big positive today is that they suffered no overheating problems, meaning their sleak design at the rear is something they can build from and work with- a really big step for them.

    Lotus didn't have a car there! They begin tomorrow.

    Red Bull made a steady start- Newey says it will be very difficult to mount a title challenge.
     
    #19
  20. eddie_squidd

    eddie_squidd Well-Known Member

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    I am pretty sure the clothing McLaren are selling on their website is mainly white with black. It's one thing to mock up a car livery for testing but if people have bought actual replica kit you would hope it has something to do with the corporate colours. I'd be pissed off I bought one and then they announced the colours were changing anyway.

    http://www.mclarenstore.com/stores/mclaren/default.aspx
     
    #20
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