The 606 Cheltenham Preview evening features 7 panelists: Nassau (NB), OddDog (OD), Beef Or Salmon (BoS), Rainbow View (RV), Woolcombe Folly (WF), Zenyatta (ZEN) and TopClass (TC). ROTO has had some Masters degree committments which have rightly taken priority, though I have included a snapshot from his quite epic Supreme Novice write up, which you will no doubt see by Tuesday morning! Can I just firstly thank everyone for their time and effort. Yes it's a bit of fun (none of us pretend to be experts!), but it takes a bit of time and committment to commentate on all these races and they've done a grand job. All that is left to say now is I hope it is an enjoyable read, a big warm welcome to anyone joining 606 for Cheltenham week, and more importantly best of luck and a good festival to all concerned with it. THE SUPREME NOVICES HURDLENB: Supreme Novice is very open, no strong fancies. Darlan seems bridle horse, hill a major worry and I don't rate any of the other UK horses. Irish winner. OD: I'm all over Tetlami (16s) for this as he has demonstrated a good level of form, is still improving and fits many of the trends. Not a fan of the Irish challenge this year tbh and I strongly suspect Darlan is a bridle horse. I think Prospect Wells will run a big race if he makes it and am on e/w (25s). BoS-Massively open with distinct lack of a standout horse. A year for a big price winner possibly? Gun to head I'll lean towards Galileo's Choice but no value now. RV: A competitive renewal with no stand out favourite at the moment unlike recent years. Can’t be backing Darlan at 5/1 as I think he will struggle if it develops in to a battle up the hill. At the prices I will be backing TRIFOLIUM if he runs. Has a good progressive profile and was really impressive in the Moscow Flyer last month. Strong pace will suit and although there are slight doubts about the ground if he runs 14-1 is a fair price. I am already on PROSPECT WELLS Ante Post at shorter prices than he is currently advertised (20-1 I think) and he is a lively outsider if bouncing back to form. Cinders And Ashes & Montbazon best of the rest. WF: This is a tough race- firstly I was looking at Cinder and ashes and also the Alan King stable as he has some top class young hurdlers and the one I liked was Montbazon- won easily and gave him boost when winning odds on at Plumpton then was impressed with him when winning @ Newbury on free Friday I have got him in a small e/w antepost along with Tetlami- I don’t really know too much about this horse only saw him when wining at the bumpers for jumpers card on the sand and was impressed by his speed not only that Henderson has a good record with young hurdlers in this race so that went in his favour too but I think my money will be on even though he has drifted slightly on Tetlami ZEN: Very tricky race in which, regrettably, I don't intend on getting too heavily involved. I think there are reasons to oppose all of those at the head of the market: Darlan appears to find little off the bridle, Galileo's Choice is flat bred and couldn't beat Sous Les Cieux who's been made to look one-paced since, Steps To Freedom hasn't had a recent run, Cinders And Ashes hasn't really grabbed me to be honest, neither has Midnight Game, Montbazon, Colour Squadron and Vulcanite's form ties in with Captain Conan which is poor, Trifolium has done all his winning on soft ground, Sous Les Cieux looks one-paced and more likely to go for the Neptune, etc. I know plenty of you fancy Tetlami but I know for a fact that Simonsig is a much better animal so suspect he'll find one of two too good unless the race really is that poor. As for a bet, I, quite clearly, have no idea because I don't really fancy anything. I could give Prospect Wells another chance at a big price and don't think we've seen the best of Allure of Illusion yet so might have a little EW at a price should Ruby ride one of those. I like to get the Festival off to a bang but can't see it this year. Can see a lot of these finishing in a heap. However, the one at a price that interests me most is Hinterland, available at 40/1 NRNB. His 8lb weight allowance puts him right in the mix on ratings and off a strong pace I can see him running far better than those odds would suggest. He looks worth a small EW interest to me. If Nicholls did run him I'm sure he'd be shorter anyway, and imagine if Ruby rode (which I don't think is totally ridiculous), he'd be far shorter. TC: Well, where do we start with the Supreme Novice? It is difficult at the best of times and it is more wide open this year than ever before. Someones going to get a bloody good price on something. Two I fancied to run very well on good ground at Cheltenham were Agent Archie and Simenon, though it looks like both may not run. I’ve had an antepost nightmare on the race but I think the two horses that have been well overlooked here is VULCANITE e/w and TRIFOLIUM e/w. He needs a strong pace, will get it, and I’m happy that this will be his 4th hurdles run. Steps To Freedom, and Darlan will all be travelling very well into the race but I just have a niggly feeling Vulcanite will love the hill, something about his action. Midnight Game would be one of the few Willie Mullins horses I’m against and the way Trifolium dismissed Simenon, who himself ran on well to be 8L clear of the third, means he is a huge player. Each-way value if he runs is unquestionably Allure of Illusion, who Mullins wanted spring ground for but has had to wait and give him hurdles experience on soft in Ireland. Massive improver in my eyes. Definitely the value two so long as they run. They would be my three. ROTO: I've narrowed down the race to two selections that fit the majority of major trends. Both won LTO (13 of last 15 winners), both have run in the last 45 days (11 of last 12 winners), both are Irish trained (7 of the last 11 winners) and both are aged 5 or 6 (33 of last 37 winners). The two horses I fancy in this contest are Charles Byrnes' Trifolium 14/1 and Willie Mullins Allure of Illusion 33/1 THE ARKLE CHASENB: Don't completely buy the hype (SS), think race will be run to suit Al Ferof and he is the value for me. If backing SS I would put a lay in running. Paddy Power offer is a must. OD: Sprinter Sacre has looked awesome and will take all the beating. I hope he runs riot because racing needs superstars. I have a small interest in Al Ferof (6/1) as I think his form is very solid and he will love the course and the hill. Wouldn't be overly sad if Sprinter Sacre thrashed him though. BoS: Sprinter Sacre appears different class. Peddler's Cross should be in Jewson's and I'm expecting him to be. Don't rate Cue Card at all in this, he'll be waving the white flag up the hill. WF: Sprinter Sacre will tie this weak renewal up very easily imo it is a 2 horse race him and Al Ferof! Cue Card is not good enough to keep up with these two, his jumping is not the most consitent and does not handle cheltenham hill very will and I reckon SS will handle the it alot better than last year, he is a beast of a horse and will take all the beating! RV: Sprinter Sacre very hard to beat but obviously no value at all at even money. I expect him to outclass the field but will take the PP offer of money back if Sprinter Sacre wins and will be backing AL FEROF with this offer. I don’t think Cue Card is good enough but he will go a good gallop and that will play in to Al Ferof’s strengths. If Sprinter Sacre is going to get beat without coming down it will be by being outstayed and the only horse to do that is Al Ferof imo. Peddlers Cross is looking more likely for the Jewson atm (3-1 for that 7-2 for the Arkle). Not sure Peddlers Cross has went on from his Champion Hurdle 2nd (Poor at Aintree, beat nothing over fences yet and thrashed by Sprinter Sacre, horrible 7-2 shot imo). Menorah doesn’t jump well with any fluency so I can’t be having him. Blackstairmountain will improve a lot for better ground but it’s probable he will be outclassed. ZEN: Sprinter Sacre has looked nothing short of exceptional so far, toying with the opposition, jumping flamboyantly (and cleverly) and travelling powerfully on all three starts. He weakened quickly up the hill in the Supreme 12 months ago but the benefit of an extra year and the breathing operation might see that ghost laid to rest. I don't like the Victor Chandler form at all and suspect Al Ferof will find everything happening a bit too quick. Cue Card's form looks strong but I don't like his jumping or his appetite for a battle (or lack thereof). Menorah could put it all together when it counts but I still think he'll come up short. Bog Warrior would be interesting on bottomless ground but that seems unlikely. Therefore, the only danger to the favourite I can see is Peddlers Cross. His preparation has hardly been ideal, and he may not even run, but he jumped well on his first two starts, we know he has an engine, and we know he loves the track. If any of the favourite's possible weaknesses are exposed then it will be Peddlers that takes advantage. However, in all honesty Sprinter Sacre looks hard to beat, especially with the negativity about the only threat I can see. TC: I was looking forward to a firecracker match up of the Champion Hurdle runner up, 2 Supreme Novice winners and the Supreme Novice 3rd and 4th going hammer and tongues in the Arkle. I love Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross, both of whom will do well closer to 3 miles. Sprinter Sacre has looked absolutely outstanding so far and if he turns up in that form, he will win. As long as he doesn’t get buzzed up at the start, a very good favourite. Potentially very special.
THE STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLENB: Hurricane Fly looks nailed on, BUT don't underestimate Binocular/Zarkandar. I wouldn't back the Fly at the prices, but he is the likeliest winner. OD: I have good sums on Hurricane Fly at 5/2 and 9/4 and for me he looks absolutely bombproof. I honestly don't think Zarkandar is good enough to trouble him and although Binocular did it well last time the form may be overvalued. A nice e/w alternative could be Overturn although I'm not sure he is at his best at Cheltenham. BoS: Hurricane Fly would win with Big Mac on his back. No point the rest turing up. Binocular should get second and Zarkander won't have the speed needed RV: Hurricane Fly looks unbeatable but never sure about taking short prices in such big races. The without Hurricane Fly market looks the place to be for some value. I will probably get laughed at for this but I was seriously impressed with Binocular at Wincanton and for me he is the bet at 11/4 without the fav. Zarkandar put in a nice performance at Sandown but I am not convinced that he is champion hurdle class yet. I am on Oscars Wells Ante Post at shorter prices than he currently is (9/1 I think) can’t see him troubling Hurricane Fly. Thousand Stars could grab a place if he runs. WF: One of the simpler races if there is any, As many people are aware I am one of Binoculars biggest fans but have concluded the best he will do and very likely is 2nd he was impressive when beating Celestial Halo in 2nd gear in the Kingwell and will give the Hurricane some race, likewise Zarkandar who we didn’t really see 100% when impressing at the Newbury because of his cough but when Ruby asked he did answer but ruby wont be on board which puts doubts in my head he will need to be on top form with a top jockey to have a chance of winning but if on form The Hurricane should swish past everyone. and the 5/4 odds the WH were offering were huge and he should make this his number 2 CH. ZEN: I think Hurricane Fly is exceptional and it is hard to see him beat. He has pace to burn, a killer turn of foot, he stays 2m4f on soft ground, he handles good too, he hurdles well, his trainer is a master of the game and he has the best jockey. His claims are bullet proof. I like Zarkandar, Binocular and Rock On Ruby, in that order, to follow him home. Zarkandar has done me a few good turns and I think the race will suit. Binocular looked much more fluent in the Kingwell and might be returning to form. Rock On Ruby will appreciate this test far more than Kempton. Oscars Well travelled well last year in the Neptune and is hard to dismiss completely but I don't like him for some reason. Thousand Stars, might run a place if coming here but in all probability will find a few too good. THE QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASENB: Sizing Europe obviously one to beat, wonder whether Big Zeb will be overpriced. Not a major betting heat for me. OD: I honestly can't see past Sizing Europe. He looked imperious at Sandown and even managed to break his Punchestown hoodoo in fine style in the Tied Cottage. The only possible danger I can see may not even run - Somersby. I do though think Somersby is better on a flat right-handed track like Kempton or Sandown and anyway he may be headed for the Ryanair. BoS: Hard to look past favourite. Big Zeb looks to be getting worse so can't have him. Bigger priced one of interest would be Wishfull Thinking if they can get his head right. RV: Sizing Europe will hack up. No bet race at the moment but possible Kauto Stone could grab a place. Don’t think Finians Rainbow or Big Zeb can get near the champ as he is electric around Cheltenham. Somersby likely for the Ryanair. WF: Taking on Sizing Europe is very dangerous looks a beast of horse and proved it when winning the tingle creek at Sandown. One of the contenders Finians Rainbow ran well when just being pipped by Somersby, it seemed he had just run out of gas at the end but Somersby loves ascot and runs very well though, so that doesn’t worry me, he has big scope of a jump but it does concern me if he will get the hill, my other contender is Kauto Stone. Ran way too freely at ascot so it was a brave decision to run him this, they will got a fast pace which will suit him, so getting round the 2m shouldn’t be a problem. If he ran like he did at ascot he wouldn’t have got round the Ryanair. He too ran very well in the tingle creek and would have only done him a world of good both races how to and not to run races, so he also deserves merit just from his breeding is a lively outsider but wouldn’t be a huge shock if he was to take honours. ZEN: Sizing Europe has the best form in the field by a comfortable margin and you know that he loves Cheltenham and good ground. The one question mark would be his age from a trends point of view but I see no evidence whatsoever that he is deteriorating and I actually think he is better than ever this year. I cannot see him getting beat. All of Big Zeb's form looks weak, and I wasn't at all surprised by the manner of his defeat in the Tied Cottage. Finian's Rainbow has always been found out in fast run races and Sizing Europe will make it a proper test. Wishfull Thinking has disappointed this season. Somersby will go for the Ryanair according to his trainer (though she may change her mind_. Realt Dubh is more likely for that contest too. Kauto Stone reportedly heads here and I think he can outrun his price. I've had a bit EW at 33/1 (now shorter) and think a reproduction of his Tingle Creek form would see him in the money here too. TC: Sizing Europe is an outstanding chaser, jumps well, stays 2m strongly and loves the course. A worthy favourite and very difficult to beat. If he were to run, Realt Dubh would be my each-way fancy as I think he has got a bit of class about him and any improvement in him on last years good novice campaign would put him in the frame for a place. Funny race this year, the Champion Chase. Wishful Thinking will run his best race of the season IMO and make the frame. THE RSA CHASENB: RSA Chase - Want Grands Crus to run in this, really fancy Bobs Worth to reverse placings with Invictus, however price is way too short. Gigginstown have strong hand. OD: I have a decent e/w bet on Invictus at 11/1 and I think he has a great chance, with or without Grands Crus. Travels well, jumps with extraordinary fluency for a novice, and has a change of gears. One of the bets of the festival for me, it will take a very, very good performance to stop him winning. BoS: Love Grands Crus. Slight concern about his running style, he could get himself beat. Invictus over-priced and looks each way banker. If GC goes Gold Cup (which he should) I'd be all over Invictus. Can't have Bob's Worth at all. Dodgy jumper. RV: Similar scenario again, if Grand Crus turns up he is going to take some stopping. High cruising speed, jumps well and quickens up nicely 2/1 though no thanks. Bobs Worth doesn’t jump well enough and can see him getting well outpaced before staying on late (If he gets around). Sir Des Champs awful value at 5/1. First Lieutenant best Gigginstown chance in the race, course form important. JOIN TOGETHER is the bet for me. Improving type, jumps well and will fight in a battle. Invictus worth his place in line up but can see him being well beaten WF: I hope for the horses sake The Pipe team run Grand Crus in this, for his future and not rush you only get to run as a novice once and think it will do him the world of good to run him against other novices then step him up next year but even so I just think there is no value left him I like the looks of Sir Des Champs and Invictus who the latter ran very well at ascot when beating Bobs Worth who I rate very highly and also has a chance, Invictus jumped extremely well and quick and Sir Des Champs loves it round Cheltenham winning last year and has been impressive over the other side of the sea so my money will be on the Irish raider. ZEN: Grands Crus has solid claims and will take the beating if he runs in this. Of the rest, I don't like Bobs Worth because he doesn't jump well enough and hasn't travelled this season either. I fancy he'll find himself too far out of his ground before his abundant stamina comes to his aid. Join Together has jumped well but possibly lacks a yard of pace (touted for the 4m National Hunt Chase originally). First Lieutenant is more interesting but is another who has hardly convinced with his jumping. I see no real reason why Invictus shouldn't confirm Ascot form with Bobs Worth. But, the one I like at a bigger price, if he is allowed to takes his chance, is Sir Des Champs. He is a lazy bugger and only does enough but I couldn't believe he actually got up to win last time, and comfortably at that. He seems to be crying out for 3m and we know he handles the track after storming home from the rear to win the Martin Pipe last season. Willie (and Ruby) are noticeably keen on him for this race. Hard to see anything else getting involved.
TC: I love Grands Crus and I think he is very talented. I canât have him at the prices though (have backed him in Gold Cup at nice odds) as the RSA is always a strange race. Long Run was beaten a couple of years ago but having said that, this season we have horses entered who have a bit of cruising speed, most notably Grands Crus, and the other, according to Willie Mullins, Sir Des Champs. I have backed Sir Des Champs between 27s and 55s on Betfair for this race and fingers crossed Willie gets him in this race as I think he really looks to need a 3m trip. I think i they jump well, these two might be good enough to fight out a finish, but it is nowhere near certain that either will run in this. Gutted if Invictus is not in, as he would make it a spectacle. THE CHAMPION BUMPERNB: No idea, and no interest. OD: I was almightily impressed by New Years Eve at Market Rasen - he can travel off a strong pace and has very very good acceleration. The Irish themselves say their bumper horses aren't up to much this year but I have a sneaky feeling Clonbanan Lad could run a cracker. TC: John Ferguson has a lot of people liking New Years Eve, and Barry Geraghty gets the ride. But I like Horatio Hornblower who will be a big improver from a very hot race on debut (finished in front of Gevrey Chambertain, the highly regarded brother of Grands Crus) and as pointed out already by GDC, it was a very tender ride that day! 16/1 looks worth a little play in an open race. WF: Champagne Fever- not a race I know too much except this horse, WM holds him in high regards and has been impressive the the races I have seen so would have to go with what I know but this is a no bet race! THE NEPTUNE NOVICE HURDLENB: No strong views, however would rather have Simonsig in the Supreme rather than this. Irish novices are most interesting for me. Gigginstown winner. OD: Very, very dependent upon who turns up but I think we could see a shock, big-priced winner here. I still have a nagging doubt about Simonsig (didn't like the way he emptied out behind Fingal Bay) and think he could be vulnerable up the hill. I think Tim Vaughan has a very nice sort in Aland Islands and if he runs I will have a small e/w play BoS: Hot, hot race. Simonsig would want to be winning this based on his reputation and I think he will. RV: Fascinating battle between Boston Bob (if he turns up) and Simonsig. Boston Bob has everything and his form looks very strong. Simonsig = high cruising speed and I still think the supreme was the way to go for him even though he will stay this far. Canât be backing either at 5/2 though and it is Possible that Mullins will run Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett therefore SOUS LES CIEUX is the value in the race for me, has high class horse written all over him. Whether we see the best of him this year or next is a different matter but I will take a chance. Batttonier is an awful bet at 8/1 â Cotton Mill best outside bet if he lines up. WF: This is a race beleive or not I havent really looked at, first glances I like the look of Boston Bob, has been very impressive in the last few races I have seen but im pretty sure he wil got the Albert Bartlett in what ever race hes in I will be backing him. If he doesnt run in the Neptune then my money will have to be on another henderson runner in Simonsig. ZEN: I've had a very nice bet on Simonsig antepost at 14/1 EW and am pleased that he comes here. So long as the ground isn't desperate then I think the trip will be fine. He travels really well, he jumps well in the main, and has a lot of ability. His main rival looks to be Boston Bob if he comes here and he warrants maximum respect. Monksland is interesting but he doesn't really grab me and I prefer the claims of Boston Bob. Batonnier, for all he is improving, looks a hideous price to me given that he was smashed by Barbatos, who in turn was no less than 17 lengths behind a below par Simonsig at Sandown. Difficult to be too definitive until Mullins reveals his hand. I know Simonsig is very highly rated at Seven Barrows, and Nicky was confident that he would reverse form with Fingal Bay. However, the price has probably gone now. TC: Monksland (BEST VALUE BET) is one of my favourite selections for the festival. Noel Meadeâs poor record means that people write him off but that suits me fine. He beat Lyreen Legend as impressively as Boston Bob but crucially the quicker they went the better Monksland looked. He quickened away beautifully that day and I have him down to see of Simonsig and score an excellent victory for Ireland. Iâm a big fan. He would have been my big price selection on the day, but Boston Bobs possible departure, along with Fingal Bay, scuppered plans of a tasty price. Meade is adamant good ground will suit and has kept a low profile on this one in the previews- quietly confident. JEWSON NOVICE CHASE NB: If Peddler's Cross runs in this he will win, however it would still be a shock to see him in it. Wait until we see final field. OD: Sir Des Champs will take all the beating if he runs. Irelands best chance of a chase winner all week. (Oddy wrote this before the huge support for Sir Des Champs in the RSA) BoS: Peddlers Cross should be in this race though question mark over his chase form now. If he was back to his best he'd be winning this well. Though is he the same horse this year- based on what we've seen it's hard to say he is. RV: Still have doubts about Peddlers Cross although this is obviously easier than the Arkle, happy enough to take him on with CRISTAL BONUS. He has a nice profile and has improved for the switch to the larger obstacles and a move to Paul Nicholls. Jumps well and has a decent turn of foot. WF: Now we know he is running in this, there is only one winner for me Peddlers Cross it is a shame he wasnât going for the Arkle but they are obviously not confident in beating the beast that is Sprinter Sacre. Cristal Bonus ran well the other day likewise For Non Stop but Peddlers Cross is the class horse in the race and will have too much for the field. ZEN: This race could cut up if Sir Des Champs runs in the RSA and Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof head to the Arkle. All three would obviously hold strong claims if coming here instead. Assuming that they don't run, Nicholls appears to have another excellent chance in the shape of Cristal Bonus. He handled good ground and a step up in class with ease at Kempton last time and this looks ideal for him. Champion Court and Solix have always been had this as their target and might be underestimated. It is hard to split the pair but both might have to give best to the likes of Cristal Bonus, though that is no guarantee. Hard to come to any firm conclusion with the participants so uncertain. TC: I had to think that 5/1 on Peddlers Cross is an absolute steal, given that he was due to be an 11/4 2nd favourite behind Sprinter Sacre. Barring one Kempton error, he actually jumped very well. He loves Cheltenham. He will be better left handed, and this is a drop in grade for him in some ways. Yes, the jury is out as a chaser, but write him off at your peril. McCain is not a mug, and he will have him more than ready for this. WORLD HURDLE NB: Big Bucks to win, Dynaste to place. Dynaste to get closer than Grands Crus did last season OD: The legend that is Big Bucks. If she runs I think Volar La Vedette could be the one to chase him home BoS: Big Bucks though Thousand Stars massive danger each way. Can't see Oscar Whisky staying in a horsebox. RV: Big Bucks is the biggest cert of the meeting, no need to add anything else about him as everyone knows all about his class and records. Whatever Willie Mullins runs is interesting for E.W purposes. Smad Place my idea of an outsider running in to the money if he turns up. WF: IMO BB faces his toughest task in Oscar Whiskey who will go over the fences next year. He is a good hurdler/jumper but not quick enough for the likes of the Hurricane etc..so this is more his thing he will stay the trip and apply pressure to the favourite come the closing stage, it will be close but stil think Big Bucks will find more deep down like he always does and retain his crown ZEN: Big Buck's has beaten all comers for the past 3 seasons and I fully expect him to make it 4 World Hurdles on the bounce this time around. Oscar Whisky is the chief rival but I'm not certain he'll stay, though he might well do. However, I am certain that he isn't good enough. He's been found at the absolute top level a couple of times now and I can't see him beating an all time great in Big Buck's. I'd fancy Thousand Stars as the main danger if he runs because his stamina is proven but I expect him to head to the Champion Hurdle instead. Once again, it is difficult to nail down an alternative EW selection with the targets of the Mullins battalions still up in the air. Dynaste isn't good enough to win but he might well be good enough to place again for the Grands Crus Pipe/Scudamore team. TC: I took on Big Bucks with Grands Crus last season and thought Iâd got him on the brink at the last hurdle, before Big Bucks woke up and decided to win, as he always does, when he wants and how he wants. Oscar Whisky is very good, So Young IMO is very very good, but Big Bucks is a legend. They will finish in that order of preference if they all turn up. Dynaste will struggle to hold these 3 off from the front.
RYANAIR CHASE NB: Alberta's Run to hold them off, AP at his best and Somersby trades odds on before being outbattled. OD: Albertas Run is highly respected but I think Rubi Light could well have improved past him this year. Lay Riverside Theatre all day - he isn't a Cheltenham horse BoS: Riverside Theatre WON'T be winning this race! If good- Noble Prince, if softer Rubi Light RV: Very good renewal. Rubi Light will be very hard to beat but I worry he will go off too hard in front and come back to them after the last. NOBLE PRINCE a high class horse and has won around here before , he is the selection but this is not a race to be getting heavily involved in imo. Somersby and Riverside Theatre the best of the English trained horses. WF: Again like Riverside Theatre and Merdemit to fend of the Irishs contenders in Rubi light and Noble Prince. Which one to win is tough. the latter english horse doesnt have a good record round this track which makes me think twise Riverside Theatre if running to the form of the King George last year, which he showed glimpsed a few weeks agao all the field will have problems co-inciding with him, from the outsiders I do like Great Endeavour from an inform stable and the horse himself is having a great season so you cant rule him out but RT is the horse for me with maybe GE e/w on the day ZEN: A very open contest that looks like being ultra competitive. I would be happy to oppose the market leaders at the prices, except for Rubi Light if it came up soft, but I'm sure he would shorten accordingly. Their claims are obvious but they all have question marks as well. I'd like Medermit EW if he comes here, and further down Poquelin might be being overlooked but has shortened up recently and the value has probably now gone. Albertas Run, as always, will go well but you have to think that he'll find one too good eventually but it might not be this year. Captain Chris is the class horse in the race if he runs but I'm not sure I could back him after his Argento effort, and I suspect he'll go for Gold if he runs at the Festival. Medermit EW would be the one for me. The 8/1 NRNB with Coral looks decent. TC: I posted Riverside Theatre for this at 11/1 some time ago and I think any talk of him ‘not being a Cheltenham horse’ is premature. He was outpaced in an Arkle, that’s all. He will run very, very well. Again, of Realt Dubh turned up I’d like his e/w chances and if it rains, Rubi Light goes exceptionally close. Noble Prince is a lay this year. Very good race with a very close finish. Great Endeavour looked the likely Hennessey winner 2 out and I think he’ll go very, very well in a fast race just shy of 3 miles and will love the ground. Get on 12/1 e.w ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICE HURDLE NB: Another race that is too tricky for me at the minute. Minefield. (Nass wrote this prior to the huge rumours of Boston Bob running in the 3 mile race) OD: I'm assuming Boston Bob will go for this and will win. If he goes for the Neptune he will win that. BoS: Mullins should run Boston Bob here as he'll be much too classy for them. ZEN: Boston Bob very tough to beat if he lines up here and can see him going off around 6/4. He holds Mount Benbullben comfortably. Rocky Creek best of the English horses. I like Ipsos Du Berlais as I think he will improve for the step up in distance and should handle Cheltenham. Has work to do with Boston Bob but is 12/1 (on antepost at 20s) The complexion of this race depends on whether Mullins runs Boston Bob here or in the Neptune. Mullins also has Sous Les Cieux, plus Make Your Mark, for the Neptune so it wouldn't surprise me to see him come here instead. If he does, he will become yet another banker because I can't see him getting beat in this. Incidentally, 3/1 NRNB looks absolutely massive because he'll surely be nearer 6/4 on the day if he runs. If he doesn't go then the race starts to look a little more open with Mount Benbulben, Rocky Creek and Sea Of Thunder looking the principal contenders. I suspect the form of the Cheltenham race in which Sea Of Thunder fell at the last is weak, and although he was going to win well, I'm not convinced it's good enough. Rocky Creek looks a thorough stayer but I worry that he might find things happening a bit to quickly for him on good ground in this. The same comments would apply to another major contender in Brindisi Breeze. Therefore, Mount Benbulben looks best of the fancied ones but at a price I would suggest Sivola De Sivola (if he doesn't make the cut in the Pertemps for which he has a massive chance). He was most eye-catching last time at Cheltenham over 2m and stays 3m well. His mark of 132 means he has a bit to find with some of the more obvious ones but I would be very confident that he's a good deal better than his mark. TC: Boston Bob has been the most impressive juvenile hurdler in Ireland and 3 miles will definitely suit him on good ground (as would the 2m 5f in the Neptune), but he would certainly have the cards stacked in his favour in this race you feel. Mont Benbulben is a smart animal, and Rocky Creek is seemingly highly regarded, too. JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE NB: Sadler's Risk was my antepost selection and still fancy him to improve for the hill. Kazlian would be interesting if he is the horse many think he could be. OD: I'm on Grumeti at fancy odds and think he has a favourites chance. On paper the one to fear is Pearl Swan but I do believe Grumeti has improved since they met, his hurdling is much more fluent and he looked thoroughly professional last time out. BoS: Like Baby Mix lots but unsure whether he can reproduce in this- will he finish his race as strong as he'll need to? Balder Success looked super slick and I'd see very little between him and stablemate Grumetti. RV: Will back both Baby Mix and Balder Succes. Don’t really rate Grumeti and think he is held by Pearl Swan (will improve again from last run). Baby Mix and Balder Succes both strong travellers and I think they will fight out the finish. WF: A very tough race but I have to go with Grumeti how ever this may change dependant on what horse Chccy rides, I think Alan King will win so will go for which ever horse he rides. Sadlers Risk i cant have was disappointing lto but Baby mix is the only horse i feel may challenge Alan Kings Stable but whether he has the pace to keep up with two I feel he doenst. One outsider my ew money may go on is Hollow tree has won at the track this season when beating an impressive Hinterland, he likes to run out in front and may try and go all the way. So anyone wanting abit of him I wouldnt put them off. ZEN: Another open looking contest. I can't seem to make head nor tail of the form to be honest. I don't like Baby Mix, he looks weak and quirky. I can see Pearl Swan getting outpaced and staying on strongly to fill a place. Sadler's Risk might go well but was disappointing at Kempton. Grumeti looks very solid and it's hard to see him being too far away. Balder Succes has looked good but it appears he is the King 2nd string. I'm not sure about the Irish but nothing really stands out. If I was to have a bet it would be Hinterland if he runs. I think the strong pace will suit him no end and can see him going much better than his price of 25/1 (NRNB with Bet 365) would suggest. I'll be a little disappointed if Nicholls sends him to the Fred Winter instead because I think he's much better than that. TC: Undoubtedly one of my big fancies going into this race is Shadow Catcher, who I think will love the ferocious pace and will travel very well into the race. Will be held up this time and can reverse with Hisabaat. I’d also bet money that Balder Success will beat Grumeti. Balder is more of a NH type, and I think Grumeti struggled a little up the hill last time. He’ll be travelling well at the business end, though! Balder Success and Shadow Catcher my two here. Pearl Swan to have traffic problems.
THE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP NB: All about Long Run, think he will win by a dozen lengths. Hope Kauto Star runs and does well. I wonder about a good place market bet, something to stay on past beaten horses. Long Run my festival NAP. OD:Long Run seems the logical choice. He was catching Kauto Star hand over fist at Kempton and the extra distance plus the hill will play to his strengths. Weird Al could run into a place at a decent price. BoS: Just hope Kauto Star runs as the spectacle will be ruined without him. Long Run wins by default though even if the King shows up. RV: Definitely between Long Run and Kauto Star even if Grand Crus shows up. Preference for the defending Champion as the extra distance will help and Henderson will have him spot on. Would be brilliant for racing if Kauto was to win again. Long Runs jumping has never been an issue for me. Very clever at his fences and letâs not forget he has not had a fall or unseat during his career (21 starts 13 over fences 8 over hurdles) WF: 2 words for you Long Run- He just wont get beat, loves the hill and although not the best jumper, he was alot better at newbury when giving 10lbs to second place Burton Port, but he jumped alot better but even when he doenst, between the jumps you wouldnt have thought he just smacked the one before he oozes in stamina and will have no problems retaing the crown ZEN: I have had this down as a match between Long Run and Kauto Star since the King George and my final selection would have been dependent on the conditions come race time. So long as Kauto Star makes the race, as now seems likely, I would stand by that view. I don't subscribe to the 'he can't win because he's 12' nonsense. He can win. If the ground is good and he can dictate then I expect him to do so. The more the race becomes a stamina test, the more it favours Long Run. If Burton Port is sacrificed to hassle Kauto on the lead then that will work against him. However, the Henderson camp seems bullish about Burton Port (they were when I was there too), so I doubt he would be sacrificed in such a manner. Midnight Chase will set a good tempo, but he can't set a gallop too strong for Kauto Star so he isn't a concern. Of the rest, I did like Weird Al at 25/1 but not at 14/1. If he drifts to a sensible price he might be worth an EW play but I'm not convinced he's good enough to beat the big two if they both turn up. Grands Crus is worthy of respect if he comes here but, on the assumption that Kauto Star runs, I think he'll go for the RSA instead. If he does then I can see him going well but he won't have faced a test anything like this and it might come as something of a shock I think. It's between Kauto and Long Run, but which I favour will depend on conditions. TC: I think we might see a surprise winner and have backed Grands Crus accordingly, at a risk. I hope Kauto Star wins, though the main thing for me is that he comes home safely- it is a massive ask to win this at the age of 12. Weird Al will run a big one and was way overpriced until this week, where people have caught on. I think McCain is quietly confident with him, as is Henderson on Long Run. Those would be my 4 potential winners- if he runs then Grands Crus gets the vote in my book. Has the gears to cause these 3 problems. If he is there 3 out, he has to go close. If he goes RSA route, Weird Al e/w.
OTHER FANCIES: The panel agreed that Quevega was the one to be on for the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Unanimous decision! OD: The Cross Country sees me favour Uncle Junior over Scotsirish but Double Dizzy could be value EW. OD: JLT Speciality Handicap Chase - I am on Hold On Julio here, I think Alan King has been targeting this race ever since his Sandown victory and we know he knows how to win it having see Bensalem take it last year. Haven't looked any closer yet - will wait until final declarations. OD: Centenary Novices Chase - just a quick mention for Bless The Wings who I am very sweet on here. I thought he was awesome at Cheltenham last time out, even though left in front far earlier than his jockey would have liked. He put in some flying leaps (especially at the last) and remains on a very workable mark. OD: Fred Winter - you'd have to say the Alan King horse Vendor looks very well in here WF: Byrne Plate- Not really studied too much but haveto go with Hunt ball- horse and trainer having one hell of a season, the handicapper may have caught up with him but even still this would just finish off a cracking year for the horse and owner! WF: County Hurdle- My idea of winner I don’t have one but two I think have definite place chances at worst Sire De Grugy - who ran tremendously at Newbury then won a race a few days later. I think Gary Moore has future festival winner on his hands in this horse and definitely IMO will be in the 1st 3 at least. Another one i like Empire Levant if nicholls was asked if he was to have one ante post bet wwho would it be he said this horse. so He feels he must have a chance and this race must be his gold cup! WF: JHGAS- The last race of the festival has one of my bankers in Astracad- the NTD yard is very confident in the ability of this horse when Sam was asked who his best chance of a winner was he answered Astracad- the stable is just beginning to come in to form at the right time. Not only that the last two times the horse has run round this track he has come 1st and 2nd so likes it here and can see him rounding off a very good week for the punters! NB:Foxhunters - All about Cloudy Lane who I think will outstay Chapoturgeon. Chapoturgeon an in running lay for me, whilst Irish have a few big entries too. NB:Others - Uncle Junior over Scotsirish but Double Dizzy could be value EW.
Also, RV on the Albert Barltett is actually Zen on the Albert Bartlett! Fantastic work Toppy, and contributors. Hopefully some valuable insight in there somewhere.
As good as write up as ive read anywhere else... Superb stuff lads, you all deserve a big pat on your back for your time and efforts... Well done Toppy for all the work youve done... just simply brilliant...!!!
Cheers toppy! Great stuff everyone, a little thing, you have BOS has 2 views on the Arkle 2nd one is mine. But Good idea toppy! And well done and cheers!
Supreme Novices.I've fancied Cinders & Ashes for ages, but the more I look at the race, the more I like Trifolium. He can handle small and big fields; he's got plenty of experience; ran a good race against second season hurdler, So Young, who is higher rated than these; and he absolutely hacked up last time. Yes, he's only run on testing ground, but that invariably applies to most Irish novices. Recommended Bet: Trifolium Each Way 14/1 and 4.3/1 Place (both Betfair) Arkle Chase. I cannot oppose Sprinter Sacre after his impressive Newbury win, but there's not many favourites come up trumps in this race- and no way would I back him at 10/11. There's better value later in the meeting.
Champion Hurdle. There's no way I'm going to oppose Hurricane Fly and anyone who lumps on him at around Evens should collect. The only slight reservation I have is that top hurdlers since Istabraq are overall a pretty mediocre bunch, but it would need a real improver to topple him. However, I disagree that Binocular and Zarkandar are the main dangers. Second season 5 year olds have a terrible record, and Binocular is very unreliable. How you can get 5.4/1 against Binocular and 13.5/1 against Rock on Ruby is beyond me! Rock On Ruby would have won at Kempton with a good jump at the last- and Cheltenham is right up his street. His form and consistency are rock solid. Recommended bet.. Lump on Hurricane Fly , but have a good each way saver now on Rock On Ruby on Betfair 13.5/1 Queen Mother Champion Chase. Sizing Europe loves it here and I expect him to make all. RSA Chase With the likely defection of Invictus- and the uncertainty over Grands Crus, I like my original fancy, Join Together.He's a real stayer and, provided he gets round, a great each way bet at 8.2/1 and 1.8/1 a place (Betfair). If the above two defect, he'll be much shorter.
