Thought I'd post this up now as opposed to waiting until the day. Any opinions are welcome Supreme Novices Preview Trifolium 14/1 & Allure of Illusion 33/1 A notoriously difficult race to solve and probably the most open looking affair on paper. There are so many doubts about the horses at the head of the market that I think it makes much more sense to have a look at a bit of value in the race. Current favourite Darlan has been absolutely smashed in the past week, with owner JP McManus stating his 5 year old trained by Nicky Henderson was his best chance of a winner all week. I think there are certainly a lot of questions regarding Darlan, especially whether he is a flashy bridle horse who finds nothing when asked the question and at the price I certainly couldn't back him for love nor money. Moreover, Darlan took a crashing fall on his last start which looked horrendous and the last 53 horses who fell in their final start in a hurdles race before Cheltenham have failed to win at the festival which is a huge trend to overcome. Jessie Harrington's Steps To Freedom headed the market for the past few months before the recent plunge on Darlan and there are also many questions regarding this 7/1 shot. Firstly, his form doesn't look anywhere near as strong as it once did with the two horses he beat at Cheltenham in the shape of Prospect Wells and Ericht disappointing subsequently and I really can't see why this 6 year old is this price on the basis of the latters subsequent disappointments. Moreover, this gelding who is unbeaten in his 3 starts has to overcome the massive trend showing 11 of the last 12 winners of the Supreme having a race in the 45 days prior to the race and although I know Jessie Harrington and jockey Robbie Power really fancy his chances he just isn't for me at the price. I'd be against Dermot Weld's Galileo's Choice given the trainer hasn't had a winner at the Festival in the past 5 years whilst I also have doubts about how good Cinders and Ashes, Montbazon and Midnight Game are. I've narrowed down the race to two selections that fit the majority of major trends. Both won LTO (13 of last 15 winners), both have run in the last 45 days (11 of last 12 winners), both are Irish trained (7 of the last 11 winners) and both are aged 5 or 6 (33 of last 37 winners). The two horses I fancy in this contest are Charles Byrnes' Trifolium 14/1 and Willie Mullins Allure of Illusion 33/1 I was very sweet on Trifolium until last week when he took an incredibly alarming drift on the exchanges to about 26 (which normally indicates that he won't run or is injured) but he seems to have tightened up right now so I'm willing to accept this conjecture may have been false, although I'm still a little worried. A recruit from France, Trifolium is a 5 year old gelding and I think he has shown some really solid form in the 6 starts he's had in Ireland since joining the excellent Charles Byrnes yard. After two encouraging yet very novicey performances in Ireland, the introduction of cheekpieces really seemed to work the oracle for this 5 year as he sauntered home a wide margin winner in a maiden in his 3rd start at Cork. It was a devastating performance, with Trifolium heavily eased at the finish and was a very visually impressive display. On his 4th start, Trifolium again ran out an impressive winner beating the decent yard stick Plan A in the process. It was again another very decent effort with jockey Niall Madden looking behind a fair bit out emphasising he had a lot of horse underneath him that day. On his 2nd last start in January Trifolium came up against his toughest task to date when facing the excellent So Young, who I rate as a very good animal who goes for the World Hurdle to take on Big Bucks and who also posted an excellent 3rd in the Neptune at Cheltenham last year. In the 4 runner affair, Trifolium actually travelled into the race better than the eventual winner before So Young utilised his extra experience to run out at 7.5L winner. I really think this is a smashing bit of form, especially considering Trifolium is only a novice and he certainly gained a lot of plaudits in defeat. On his 6th and final start for Byrnes, Trifolium was stepped into Grade 2 Company for the first time and ran out a very impressive winner at Punchestown last month, quickening away effortlessly from what looked a very strong field on paper and the 9L margin of victory is perhaps an underestimate of how good Trifolium was. Quickening off the front, Trifolium quickened away from the field fluently and it was again an emphasis of how far he has come from his debut. Although there are definite concerns about the ground given he has done all his racing in Ireland on yielding ground or worse, its not that Byrnes has shirked from better ground to my knowledge and it has merely been a case of the ground over here has been very soft for the past few months. However, Byrnes is a very shrewd trainer and I believe that he won't run his gelding on unsuitable ground and there is a possibility that he may improve for the better ground. Furthermore, Davy Russell said at a recent preview night that although he may not improve on better ground he certainly won't be inconvenienced by it which is good to hear. Although the Gigginstown retained jockey Davy Russell looks set to take the ride on Willie Mullins Midnight Game due to the positive reports emanating from that yard, I wholeheartedly believe that Trifolium is the superior animal. [Although in a Cheltenham Preview night at Leopardstown Willie Mullins said Midnight Game didn't work well so Russell may switch allegiances to this fella] With the solid form in the book and with Byrnes having 2 winners from his 13 runners at Cheltenham in the past 5 years, I'm very confident that if he runs he will have an excellent chance and the 14/1 on offer with NRNB in several firms looks a very good bet. The other horse at a bigger price is Willie Mullins 6 year old Allure of Illusion who I think has been a bit overlooked in the market. Playing second fiddle to stablemate Midnight Game in the betting, Allure of Illusion has only had 4 starts to date spread out over 18 months with two starts in bumpers and 2 latterly over hurdles. Allure of Illusion was successful on debut in a bumper at Killarney in August 2010 and showed a likeable attitude to overcome interference and some obstruction to eventually get up and score. After this, Willie Mullins' charge was 8 months off the track before making his reappearance in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree in April last year when finishing a 10L beaten 3rd. That day, Allure of Illusion had a rather rough race getting bumped on several occasions when short of room before having to come widest of all to make his challenge coming into the home straight. That race has a lot of significance in terms of the Supreme Novices with the front two that day Steps To Freedom and Montbazon re-opposing on Tuesday and although you can't directly translate bumper form to hurdles form you'd think this 6 year old would have a bit to find with those two rivals. However, the race that day went along at an absolute snails pace and it really suited the first two home given their high cruising speed and with the Supreme likely to be a frantic pace it will surely help Allure of Illusion to bridge the gap. After another long 9 month gap, Allure of Illusion made his hurdles debut for Mullins back in January where he was a 1L beaten 2nd behind Joxer, although that certainly does not tell the story of the race. After hurdling rather excellently for a debutant, Allure of Illusion was horrendously hampered by a faller and it would have killed so much momentum. However, he again showed his tough nature by brushing this off before nearly doing what seemed unthinkable and getting up to beat Joxer, with the front pair drawing well clear. Although Joxer has disappointed in his races since, I think he sets a good standard of form and he is a talented horse and I don't think he has been right in his 2 subsequent starts. After a solid bumper career, Joxer made his hurdling debut at the Leopardstown Festival in December where he finished 0.5L behind Midnight Game, Allure of Illusion's stablemate and a 9/1 shot for the Supreme Midnight Game. Given that it was Joxer's hurdling debut and Midnight Game had already had 2 starts over hurdles, Allure of Illusion finishing 2nd to Joxer on his hurdling debut when the latter already had experience under his belt certainly shows me that it is definitely possible that Allure of Illusion could be a better horse. Continued Below
On his final start, Allure of Illusion appeared to disappoint in a huge way on the face of things when only dead heating for 1st last month when a 1/5 favourite. Although many perceive in the context of this race that on this showing Allure of Illusion would have no chance, this effort was a full 4f longer than his debut effort and I certainly believe that it is possible that Allure of Illusion may simply have not stayed the trip. He travelled into the race better than anything and cruised all the way to the last flight and when Ruby Walsh popped him the question there was little to be found, often an indicator that the horse didn't stay the trip. With the Supreme Novices 16.5f, the very unexposed Allure of Illusion should relish the step back in trip and if I am right about not staying than I think he has some rather strong form in the book and he looks great value at 33/1. Although not a race to get heavily involved with given the open and competitive nature of the race, I certainly think bets on Trifolium and Allure of Illusion are certainly worthy of my money. If acting on the ground, Trifolium has the best form in the book for me and I think he certainly looks very overpriced at 14/1. Similarly, if Allure of Illusion didn't stay the 20f trip on his last start then I think he looks to be pretty overlooked in the market. These two Irish trained horses fit the key trends of this race and I certainly think it is worth pointing out that Willie Mullins took this event back in 2007 with Ebizayan at 40/1 so the fact Allure of Illusion is bigger in the betting isn't a concern. With too may doubts about those at the forefront of the market, I certainly think it is worth looking for value alternatives and I'm confident both Trifolium and Allure of Illusion will at least outrun their odds, hopefully with them filling the first two places home.
Good analysis ROTO you might have talked me into backing one of these on the day as this is one of the few races where I don't have much of a view upon. You're talking very decent returns should either of these even place.
Cheers Beefy. I'm very hopeful that at least one of these will make the frame and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they are the first two home. They've both absolutely flown under the radar so far
ROTO good work buddy and very nice write up's. I have backed Trifolium already for the Supreme at 17.5 I think on Betfair, but your write up is a very convincing one for Allure of Illusion. Will look to play e/w on the day methinks.
Just to let you know that at one of the Cheltenham Preview Nights Barry Geraghty said that Tetlami would finish about 1f behind stablemate Darlan in this. Just passing on what was said!
I can't find where I read that and in the case I've somehow invented that out of thin air have a small bet!
These preview nights are so full of bollocks it is now getting on my wick. Andrew Tinkler is quoted as saying: "Tetlami is by Daylami and has the traits of many offspring of his sire in that he only shows you half his hand as he does what you ask and no more. He has ten times more ability that he has shown." And then Geraghty is supposed to have come out with that nonsense? Today I read from a preview evening: "AB: I am keen to take Hurricane Fly on and, I feel he could be vulnerable if the likes of Celestial Halo and Overturn ensure there is a strong gallop." Erm isn't that what Overturn did last year to help Peddlers Cross "outstay" Hurricane Fly? What a load of old bollocks some of these idiots spout ..............................
Seriously Oddy half of these preview nights are full of ****. It's all clouded visions really. I like listening to some of the top trainers. Don McCain looked very confident about Peddlers Cross, almost laughing off the criticism with a cynical smile. Nicholls is always a good speaker.
I know where you're coming from with these preview evenings, there is now market saturation. They're great to whet the appetite and get the opinions of people within the sport but you hear so much conflicting information you question their value from a betting persepctive, as I say, it's great to be involved and engage in discussion on a subject so many of us care so strongly about, but the days are gone where a jock will put you onto half a dozen winners no-one has mentioned I think...
Darlin has rapidly become one of the worst value favourites of the Festival. Can only put it down to AP and JP's comments at these preview nights. I think the school of thought that he's a bridle horse may not be far off the mark but the vibes from Hendo and co suggests different and that this is a very, very good horse...
The Supreme looks abit of a nightmare, I spent 2 hours last night looking through the form and I still don't have a strong opinion. Theres no horse that that stands out. The form looks a nightmare, its like the main contenders have taken it in turns to win and lose to each other. My selection though is Steps to Freedom, I know many doubt his form, because of Prospect Wells, but I feel PW has ran so poorly since that it's hard to take his form literally. He had alot of runs in a short space of time, and I feel Nicholls has just run him into the ground, that 20 lengh defeat at Sandown could not possibly of been the same horse. Ericht i know has let the form down also, but again he was turned over at 1/5, and I cannot possibly believe that is his true ability. I know it's difficult to accept both horse's have declined, but there runs were so poor, that I can't see any other explanation
Very happy with both jockey bookings with Davy Russell picking Trifolium over Midnight Game. Think its rather interesting that Davy Condon is on Allure of Illusion considering he was on Ebizayan when he won at 40s back in 2007 for Mullins.
