Press Release: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Analysis The William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle opens proceedings at The Festival on Champion Day, Tuesday, March 12, and the runners and riders are traditionally greeted with the famous Cheltenham roar when setting off. The Irish held a stranglehold over this event between 2000 and 2009, winning seven of the nine renewals, but the past three runnings have gone to British-trained runners with two Irish-trained favourites turned over during that period. The Irish account for 30 of the 94 entries this year and their challenge is headed Jessica Harrington’s Jezki, who has recently been purchased by J P McManus. The five-year-old is unbeaten in four starts over hurdles and lowered the colours of last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper hero Champagne Fever in the Grade One Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse in early December before an impressive eight-length success over Waaheb in a Grade One at Leopardstown over Christmas, both run at two miles. As well as Champagne Fever, Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins has six other possibles including Un Atout, who is unbeaten in a bumper and two hurdle races, and Weatherbys Champion Bumper third Pique Sous. Noel Meade saddled Sausalito Bay and Go Native to victory in 2000 and 2009 respectively, and the trainer is responsible for the highly-regarded Ned Buntline, while Gordon Elliott’s three entries include Don Cossack and Ladbroke Hurdle winner Cause Of Causes. Brian Hamilton has entered his high-class bumper performer Moscow Mannon, who eased to victory on his hurdling debut at Navan in December, while high-class Flat performer Minsk is one of two entries for Dessie Hughes. Nicky Henderson has 13 entries, the most of any trainer, headed by River Maigue and My Tent Or Yours, who scored impressively at Kempton and Huntingdon respectively. Dodging Bullets, one of four entries for champion Jump trainer Paul Nicholls, came home third in the Grade One williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park on Boxing Day, while Jeremy Scott has entered stable star Melodic Rendezvous after his cosy victory in the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on January 5. The home challenge could also feature Oliver Sherwood’s Puffin Billy, who completed a four-timer when sauntering clear of his rivals in a Grade Two at Ascot in December, and last season’s Aintree champion bumper winner The New One from the stable of Nigel Twiston-Davies. John Ferguson is one of the rising stars of the training ranks and went close to saddling a Cheltenham Festival winner in his first season training when New Year’s Eve chased home Champagne Fever in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper last year. As well as New Year’s Eve, his eight entries include high-class Flat performer Whispering Gallery, who won decisively on his hurdling debut at Leicester. Other notable entries include Swnymor, Court Minstrel and Cheltenian, who hasn’t been seen since landing the 2011 Weatherbys Champion Bumper for trainer Philip Hobbs. Runners and Form
THE WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICESâ HURDLE Class 1, Grade 1, Total Prize Fund £120,000, 1.30pm Tuesday, March 12, 2013, Old Course, two miles and half a furlong, for novice four-year-olds and upwards. Weights 4-y-o 10st 13lb, 5-y-o and upwards 11st 7lb, fillies and mares allowance 7lb. Entries closed January 29, 2013, entries released, January 31 (94 entries), scratchings deadline February 19. Six-day confirmation stage, March 6, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 11. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including Monday, January 28. May not include some overseas form. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 3-12154 ALLY CASCADE (IRE) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE 1111 ANNIE POWER (IRE) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 3/-11F ANONIS (GER) 7 Barry Connell Mags Mullins IRE 32-122 BILLY TWYFORD (IRE) 6 Andy Weller Lawney Hill BLACK SPIRIT (USA) 6 Alan Spence Nicky Henderson 240-13 BRIGHT NEW DAWN (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE 1 BUTHELEZI (USA) 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson 261311 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 5 Timeform Betfair Racing Club Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE 041 CAYMAN ISLANDS 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson 111-123 CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 1 CHAT ROOM 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson 1-1 CHATTERBOX (IRE) 5 The Not Afraid Partnership 2 Nicky Henderson 211/- CHELTENIAN (FR) 7 Roger Brookhouse Philip Hobbs 111 CLOSE TOUCH 5 The Queen Nicky Henderson 214-134 COURT MINSTREL (IRE) 6 Janet Davies Evan Williams 246-113 DODGING BULLETS 5 Martin Broughton & Friends Paul Nicholls 5111-1F DON COSSACK (GER) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 23-141 DUKE OF NAVAN (IRE) 5 David & Nicky Robinson Nicky Richards 1-213 EDUARD (IRE) 5 Kingdom Taverns Ltd Nicky Richards P ELECTROLYSER (IRE) 8 Mr & Mrs P Hargreaves Nicky Henderson 23(1) FAIR TRADE 6 Raymond Tooth Alan King 2F1 FATCATINTHEHAT 4 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE FIRE KING 7 D Steele Philip Hide 12 FLAXEN FLARE (IRE) 4 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE FLYING CROSS (IRE) 6 Robin Geffen David Pipe 114 FORGOTTEN VOICE (IRE) 8 Susan Roy Nicky Henderson 2110 GOLDEN HOOF (IRE) 5 The Hoof Partnership Nicky Henderson 10-1P I SHOT THE SHERIFF (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark David Pipe 40-3110 IFANDBUTWHYNOT (IRE) 7 Claire Hollowood & Henry Dean David O'Meara 112 IRISH SAINT (FR) 4 Mrs Johnny de la Hey Paul Nicholls 10-1111 JEZKI (IRE) 5 J P McManus Jessica Harrington IRE 211(1) KARAZHAN 5 Pump & Plant Services Ltd Nicky Henderson 1 KING OF DUDES 4 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King 6 KUDA HURAA (IRE) 5 Thurloe 53 Alan King 0-F1 LEGAL EXIT (IRE) 6 Mary Samworth Jim Culloty IRE 2 LIFE AND SOUL (IRE) 6 Matthew Taylor Donald McCain LOOKING ON 5 Irvin Naylor Venetia Williams 34116 LORD OF HOUSE (GER) 5 Good Lord Partnership Charlie Mann 14 LORDOFTHEHOUSE (IRE) 5 St Albans Bloodstock LLP Tom George 12-211 MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 7 Cash For Honours Jeremy Scott 61P MINELLA DEFINITELY (IRE) 6 Wellcroomed T/A eyewearoutlet.co.uk Neil Mulholland 10-3 MINELLA FORFITNESS (IRE) 6 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson 2-142 MINSK (IRE) 5 Barry Connell Dessie Hughes IRE 11/3- MONO MAN (IRE) 7 Bridget Hanbury Nicky Henderson 242-411 MORNING ROYALTY (IRE) 6 Eileen Milligan James Moffatt 31114-1 MOSCOW MANNON (IRE) 7 J M Flanagan Brian Hamilton IRE 2/1213-1 MOZOLTOV 7 Martin Lynch Willie Mullins IRE 3-4511 MR WATSON (IRE) 6 Gay Smith Jonjo O'Neill 122-121 MY TENT OR YOURS (IRE) 6 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 2-121 NED BUNTLINE 5 J P McManus Noel Meade IRE 1120-2 NEW YEAR'S EVE 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson 333- OFF THE WALL (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark David Pipe 630/0- OSTENTATION 6 Chris Beek Alastair Lidderdale 31 PINE CREEK 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson 3-31121 PIQUE SOUS (FR) 6 Supreme Horse Racing Club Willie Mullins IRE 16 POET 8 Tina Cox Clive Cox 1-111 PUFFIN BILLY (IRE) 5 T D J Syder Oliver Sherwood 0 RANSOM NOTE 6 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 2-11 RED DEVIL BOYS (IRE) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson 31-21 RIVER MAIGUE (IRE) 6 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson 1 ROCK CRITIC (IRE) 8 Moyglare Stud Farms Ltd Dermot Weld IRE 1/410-55 ROYAL GUARDSMAN (IRE) 6 Camilla & Rosie Nock Susan Nock 3140 ROYAL ST TROP (FR) 5 Royal St Trop Association Yann Porzier FR 1211 RULE THE WORLD 6 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 10015F RUN WITH THE WIND (IRE) 7 John Bosco O'Hagan Michael Hourigan IRE SAIL BY THE SEA (IRE) 5 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 21-12 SAMETEGAL (FR) 4 John & Barbara Cotton Paul Nicholls 2/-2 SIDNEY MELBOURNE (USA) 6 CGA Racing Partnership 5 Paul Nicholls 4U35/- SIR PITT 6 Gordon Kendrick Andy Hobbs 35 SIZING SOLUTION (IRE) 5 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Jim Dreaper IRE 1-4r SOME ARTICLE (IRE) 5 J P McManus Thomas Mullins IRE SSAFA 5 Chris Beek Alastair Lidderdale STAND TO REASON (IRE) 5 Seasons Holidays Nicky Henderson 1F SWNYMOR (IRE) 4 Carl Hinchy Tim Vaughan F5-1211 TANERKO EMERY (FR) 7 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Egan Waste Ltd David Pipe 4-31023 TED VEALE (IRE) 6 John Breslin Tony Martin IRE 61-1112 THE NEW ONE (IRE) 5 Mrs S Such Nigel Twiston-Davies 5 THIMAAR (USA) 5 Jon Glews, 24-7, D Lockwood, Fred Lockwood Donald McCain 2P020B THOMAS EDISON (IRE) 6 J P McManus Tony Martin IRE 3-22121 TOO SCOOPS (IRE) 6 Dumb Dumb Syndicate Henry de Bromhead IRE 4R1 TSAR DES BIEFFES (FR) 6 Mrs Jean Porzier Yann Porzier FR 1-12 UMPACT (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 1-11 UN ATOUT (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 1-1 UNIQUE DE COTTE (FR) 5 J P McManus David Pipe 11-1222 URANO (FR) 5 Mrs M McMahon Willie Mullins IRE 532141 UTOPIE DES BORDES (FR) 5 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson (1)4-2101 VALDEZ 6 Riverdee Stable Alan King 205-256 VILLAGE VIC (IRE) 6 Alan Peterson Philip Hobbs 111/2-12 WAAHEB (USA) 6 J P McManus Dermot Weld IRE (1) WARDEN HILL (IRE) 5 Camilla Radford Mick Channon 1 WAYDOWNSOUTH (IRE) 6 Medicaldiagnosticultrasoundltd Patrick Flynn IRE 1 WHISPERING GALLERY 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson 3-63414 WINGTIPS (FR) 5 Sheila Moffett Tony Martin IRE ZUIDER ZEE (GER) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson 94 entries 30 Irish-trained 2 French-trained
Timeform's View Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Make a winning start to Cheltenham 2013 As the countdown to Cheltenham begins to build up a head of steam, Timeform's Matt Gardner attempts to find the winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle... The anticipation of what Cheltenham 2013 has to offer will at no stage, no matter how excited you are now, exceed the level at which it will be at around 13:28 on March 12. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is the opening race of the meeting and accruing that extra bit of punting confidence by nailing the winner will do wonders for your finances throughout the week- at least that's what I thought as I celebrated the success of Cinders And Ashes last year. What it actually brought about was a run of dismal personal results, abated only slightly on the Thursday by the tiniest of wagers on Cape Tribulation, but by that time my wallet, and confidence, had already been well and truly decimated. Nevertheless the theory still stands that winners lead to more winners, the Midas touch, "I'm feeling lucky now", and all the other jargon that regularly gets wheeled out by someone who's just backed the victor, which heaps that bit of additional pressure upon our selection for this race. Where shall we begin in our quest for the winner? Well, seeing as the two at the head of the market are trained in Ireland we best cram ourselves onto a Ryanair flight across the Irish Sea. Speaking of Ryanair, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary is the owner of Gigginstown House Stud who look set to be represented by the Willie Mullins-trained Un Atout, an as yet unbeaten five-year-old. By the French stallion Robin des Champs, whose progeny Mullins has excelled with in recent years with the likes of Quevega, Sir des Champs and Sous Les Cieux flying the flag, Un Atout first came onto the radar when making a winning racecourse debut at Naas last January, smashing his rivals by 24 lengths. He looked a good prospect when successful on his hurdles bow in December but improved markedly upon that next time, looking one of the best seen in the division as yet when again winning by a wide margin at Naas, jumping soundly in the main. He has created a big impression in a short space of time over hurdles and looks the one to beat in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on February 9 and, were success to come just as easily there, his price for this contest could well shorten considerably. A likely rival in the Deloitte is Moscow Mannon, who enjoyed a profitable season in bumpers last term as he won three of the five he contested. His season ended with an excellent fourth-placed effort in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, with conditions that day possibly just a shade too quick for him to be seen to full advantage as he was tapped for toe upon entering the straight, keeping on well but unable to get on terms with the principals. He looked the type to do well over hurdles and duly made a highly encouraging start at Navan after nine months off, beating The Paparrazi Kid by two and three-quarter lengths, and he strikes as being open to significant improvement. However, although yet to race beyond two miles the suspicion is that he will prove suited by two and a half and, with connections suggesting that were the ground to again come up on the quicker side he may run in the Neptune, he is difficult to recommend as an ante-post play for this. Another to have made a taking start to life over hurdles is Jezki, who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a six length defeat of Waaheb at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has progressed with each and every start in this sphere and at this stage is the leading contender on form for the Supreme, although that could change were Un Atout to set about demolishing his rivals in the Deloitte. The gripe I have with Jezki is price, the five-year-old presently trading at [4.9] which seems on the short side when compared with the next couple we must discuss. The way you view the price of the Nicky Henderson-trained My Tent Or Yours depends very much upon whether you think he will win the Betfair Hurdle as, were he to prove triumphant there, the [11.5] on offer for the Supreme would be snapped up instantly. His defeat of subsequent Grade 1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin du Seuil at Ascot in November advertises his claims admirably and he could hardly have been more impressive at Huntingdon last time, though a mark of 149 for the Betfair looks stiff enough given that Darlan, who was at a similar stage in his career, was thought to face a difficult task off 146 in the same race last year. Were he to be beaten in the Betfair, not out of sight but by a few lengths, his price for the Supreme is likely to be fairly static so it is not worth risking him winning at Newbury and therefore being cut for Cheltenham. Advice: Back him for the Supreme prior to the Betfair Hurdle and hope that he hacks up there. Currently trading at the same price as the aforementioned My Tent Or Yours is Puffin Billy, who has looked hugely exciting on the four occasions he has taken to the track so far. Two successful outings in bumpers led to his hurdling debut at Newbury, where he created an excellent impression in a race run at a ridiculously slow pace, but he posted a greater performance on the figures when running out a facile winner of a Grade 2 at Ascot. There is still room for improvement in his jumping and his target is as yet unconfirmed, as he could run in the Neptune if the ground were good, but he shows so much speed that he seems highly likely to cope with the demands of this race. In short, the Oliver Sherwood-trained five-year-old could make the [11.5] available at present look like an absolute gift come March 12. The main contenders we have now dealt with but it would be wrong were we not to mention a number of others that also have a chance. River Maigue couldn't have won any more easily than he did at Kempton over Christmas but, for all that he seems sure to go onto better things, he may just find one or two too good here. Similar sentiments go out to both New Year's Eve and Pique Sous, whilst Melodic Rendezvous' best form has come on heavy ground and he may not be suited by the usual Festival conditions. Dodging Bullets is a horse I have a bit of a soft spot for and it is easy to forget that he remains a novice; his fourth-placed effort in the Triumph last year was a highly creditable feat given it was just his second start over hurdles and he seemed unsuited by the steady pace in the Christmas Hurdle on his most recent start. However he trades at [14.0], just a few points bigger than Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours, and I know who I would rather be backing. "Which race will he go for?" is a well-worn phrase in Cheltenham ante-post betting, and we must utter it once more with regards to Puffin Billy. At the prices however he is just too big to ignore for this contest and we would be kicking ourselves were he to be sent off at closer to [5.0] on the day, so he is a must-have addition to our plays. The advice with My Tent Or Yours is to back him for this race before the Betfair Hurdle safe in the knowledge that there is nothing to lose but everything to gain as, were he to win he goes off considerably shorter at Cheltenham and were he to be beaten he goes off at around the same price. Perhaps we have found the opening winner of the Festival and we will feel incredible at about 13:35, just as the cash hits our palms, but the rest of the week is up to you. All the best. Recommendations: Back Puffin Billy @ [11.5] Back My Tent Or Yours @ [11.5] prior to the Betfair Hurdle Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com. please log in to view this image
Disappointing to note that Mr Henderson’s Tistory isn’t included amongst the entries and this would seemingly concur that he won’t be competing over timber this term. However, if he does return in season 2013/14 I can think of no more likely winner, at this stage, of this race next year. I believe though that Dodging Bullets will go very close in this heat and it is worth pointing out that on official figures he is ALREADY at 156 rated higher than an average winner of the ‘Supreme Novices’. In a typical year the form that he has already shown on the track should be good enough to see Dodging Bullets oblige. Furthermore he’s got high class track form (Grade 2 winner and 4th in a Triumph Hurdle) and comes from the Nicholls yard who have won this twice in recent years.
My two against the field are Dodging Bullets and Un Atout and i've backed both at 14's and 16's each way. An interesting horse has got to be Mozoltov following his good win yesterday. Improvement for good ground seems certain and as Boris pointed out it's very possible that his run on Sunday was better than anything Jezki has produced thus far. At 20/1 and a decent jockey in Paul Townend on board he looks to be an interesting contender.
I agree with Sir Barney, Dodging will go VERY close and his proven course form will help him a great deal. I'm on a few times at 14s and 12s, Ruby will ride (Mullins ahs Gigginstowns Un Atout) so he'll go off about 5s or 6s.
Doesn't it seem strange to have a horse in the Supreme with rock solid, top level form? Usually this heat is full of high potential sorts who have won one or 2 weak looking races by wide margins. It's a mystery to me that Jezki, and not Dodging Bullets, is 7/2 fav for the race, particularly as Dodging Bullets has not been entered elsewhere as far as I can see.
Feb 5th: Has Dermot Weld found another classy dual-purpose performer in the shape of Rock Critic? Like Unaccompanied, Rock Critic is owned by Moyglare Stud but unlike that wonderful mare, he made his hurdling debut last season at the ripe old age of 7 when winning a maiden hurdle at the Galway festival. Although probably not beating much, Rock Critic won that race effortlessly and could, quite literally, be anything. He had a flat rating of 106 and was placed at listed class in that sphere. He is a general 25/1 (Hills go 33/1) for the Supreme and you can get a tasty looking 47 on Betfair (albeit only for a few quid). If he takes this well today those odds will tumble.
Rock Critic did it nicely but I think the proximity of Seabass tempers any enthusiasm. Make Your Mark has also presumably had setbacks this season to have not been seen again, and I doubt he ran anywhere near form trying to make all on his comeback.
On the other hand it was a prep race and he was heavily eased - could have won 20 lengths. Agree though, the form doesn't look good enough. Lump on him for Galway though
True Oddy. What do we have as a provisional lineup taking shape then at the moment? Are any unsighted horses down to run soon, such as Black Spirit of Nickyh Hendersons?
Can't see much coming out of the woodwork tbh. There is a very nice novice hurdle at Newbury on Saturday (first race on the card) with Lac Fontana from the Nicholls yard (although he is probably Triumph bound as he is a 4YO), Chatterbox, Puffin Billy and River Maigue. There's also a nice listed novice hurdle at Exeter on Sunday with the likes of Valdez, Seventh Sign, Puffin Billy, Melodic Rendezvous, Pendra, Mr Mole and Kilmurvy entered. I think we've seen most of the cards played for the Supreme. Might be some nice Triumph types lined up for the Adonis at Kempton though ........................
Seven Barrows must have had their share of problems this year with the likes of Black Spirit, Mono Man and Stand To Reason all failing to get to the track.
I am on Un Atout at 16's and very happy with that. His price is likely to be even shorter on the day than the 7's he currently trades at. Looking forward to this, can see paddy power turning their attention to Simonsig in the Arkle regarding their offer this year.
I wonder whether we might see New Year's Eve put down a marker at Taunton today? I'm willing to forgive his defeat by River Maigue because 1) it was his hurdles debut 2) he is not as effective on heavy ground (demonstrated by his 2 bumper runs behind Champagne Fever) and 3) River Maigue is a very decent animal. The ground should suit him better today (although you'd probably want "good" in the description to see him at his best) but to be considered a genuine contender for the Supreme Novices he'd need to smash this lot today. At odds of 2/7 he's clearly expected to do the business.
I also think Simonsig will be their target horse. Un Atout at 16s is a good bet, I took the same before his win LTO knowing he would shorten. I would still recommend covering him for the Neptune on the exchanges. If he pulls out something special in the Deloitte next time out and lengthens away in the final two furlongs, I think they would have to seriously consider it, especially on breeding. He looked better the further he went over 2m last time so always beware of Willie Mullins.
I am always worried when it comes to Willie Mullins. I think you tend to know less after he has answered the question posed. I am also a littled worried to see Chatterbox priced up at 14's by Ladbrokes for this. He isn't even in their betting for the Neptune which is where I have taken some nice prices about him. All the joys of ante post punting.
Probably. But maybe only the watered-down version of "money back if your horse finished 2nd to Simonsig"? Or will they go the whole hog and say money back if Simonsig wins? BTW, is that really money back, or is it a free bet to the same value?
I think they will go the whole hog Oddy. They aren't shy in taking on a favourite, it is great publicity and you have the rest of the week to give the money back.
Last year they went the whole hog and gave money back (not free bets) if SS won. I had a punt on menorah, which was refunded in full.
