The Cheltenham Festival Timeform Thread

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I'm going to post (freely available) Timeform extracts on this thread. I'll have a look back to see if any other relevant Timeform extracts are on here and, if so, provide the link below.

Feel free to comment and/or add any I miss.

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Timeform's View
Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day One Preview: Context is king.

Our Chief Correspondent looks at day one of the Festival, in which he thinks punters have been twisting the big-race favourite's words and getting too attached to working-class heroes...

'Energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry' was the testimonial blazoned across the posters and billboards. Who wouldn't want to have seen Sinatra At The London Palladium, a video presentation of the late singer's greatest recordings, staged in 2006, on the back of such an ardent endorsement? Only it wasn't.

The Observer reviewer's complete line, from which the promotional extract was craftily taken, was in actual fact: 'I couldn't help feeling that, for all the energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry, the audience had been shortchanged.' I'm not sure whether Accentuate The Positive was part of the Sinatra posthumous setlist.

Selective editing is the game and contextomy is its name, the dangerous art of quoting out of context, and it's rife, including in the highly-interpretive world of horse racing analysis. Besides painting a potentially misleading picture, 'quote mining' can also serve to contaminate subsequent interpretation of the original testament, and that's more or less the crux of it with Hurricane Fly, the horse around which the Champion Hurdle revolves.

The critics who are unconvinced by Hurricane Fly tend to pull out one excerpt in particular: he didn't win the race last year when expected to. The 2012 Champion Hurdle, as evidence, is case closed as far as the prosecution is concerned, concluding that why now if not then, especially as, at the age of nine, two years older than the average winner, he must be looking down the hill if not quite over it?

A persuasive enough argument, but based on an isolated incident, and last year's Champion Hurdle is out of context as well as out of character for Hurricane Fly.

His complete bio, from which the pejorative phrase was extracted and distortedly magnified, reads: Hurricane Fly, successful in 14 Grade 1 events including the 2011 Champion Hurdle, didn't win the race last year when expected to, but his odds of 4/6 that day reflected his superior standing over much the same horses he faces this time, and, unsurprisingly for a horse who's had half the racing of most nine-year-olds, there has been no sign of age catching up with him this season with three easy top-level wins from three starts.

Admittedly, this season's three wins do themselves need to be contextualised, as he's beaten nothing yet of the calibre he'll meet at Cheltenham, but the point is that, unlike in 2012, when he had just the one warm-up race amidst some doubts about his well-being, his preparation has gone smoothly, very smoothly, this time.

It's the nature of the racing game that interpretations fluctuate, individually and retrospectively, and, Hurricane Fly apart, there's been a certain amount of revisionism over the 2012 Champion Hurdle. Rock On Ruby, for example, whose win was, at the time, tinged with a touch of enterprise and opportunism, has suddenly become the unsung hero and reincarnation of Hardy Eustace, the back-to-back Champion Hurdler (2004/5) who was cut from the same uncompromising cloth, while everybody seems happy - and rightly so - to overlook Zarkandar's disappointment that day and accept that he's a different horse this different season. So why not Hurricane Fly?

The enthusiastic Hurricane Fly, who settles better in his races these days and therefore isn't beholden to tactics as he once was, has never worn blinkers, but his knockers seemingly do, not seeing the wood for the one, solitary tree planted on Champion Hurdle day last year.

Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar are solid, but solid has won fewer Champion Hurdles than a sharp turn of foot over the years, and Hurricane Fly has something else that, on his day, none of his rivals can match: a Timeform rating of 173, making him the best two-mile hurdler since the legendary Istabraq. It may come across as trite that I'm defending a horse who needs little or no defending - after all, he's clear favourite to take back his Champion Hurdle crown - but the purpose is merely to bring, or bring back, a bit of perspective to Hurricane Fly, bruised from a few cheap shots.

The short-lived production Sinatra At The London Palladium reportedly built to a crescendo of Come Fly With Me, which is what I'm asking of you with Hurricane. This is my official quote on the matter: 'Will Hurricane Fly win? He can't get beat.' Putting it that way gives me some room for contextomy manoeuvre after the event.

That's the Champion Hurdle spleen vented, but what about the other issues up for discussion on the first day of Cheltenham?

The Make-Or-Breaker

On the Tuesday it's a source of fun, on Wednesday it gets mildly annoying, by Thursday there's steam coming out of my ears, and on Friday I'm throwing stuff at the telly. We're talking the phoney-baloney "war", and reporting thereof, between bookies and punters. Bookies rep after bookies rep is wheeled out to tell us, the punters, whether we won that day or not, based on the horrific assumption that all punters back the same horse, always the favourites, and all bookies lay the same horses, always the favourites.

I can't wait for the boy Jiwani to inform that, despite having done £300 in cold blood on the first day according to my account, I'm actually on the winning team because four favourites went in.

There is, however, a make-or-break horse on day one who will, realistically, decide a punters vs. bookies battle, if not the war. It will certainly shape the whole meeting let alone day for me, as I'm going in and going in big on My Tent Or Yours. Odds of [2.8] might not sound juicy, but as far as I'm concerned he's a 2.8 chance to post a higher rating than the Champion Hurdle winner.

It's a straightforward case: you just don't get horses of My Tent Or Yours's proven ability running in novice hurdles. He's already bearing down on Golden Cygnet, winner of the 1978 Supreme, whose rating of 176 remains the highest for a novice hurdler in Timeform history, and to get in that bracket prior to the championship races of Cheltenham, as My Tent Or Yours has, is almost unheard of.

Make sure you back him, if only to shout 'Damn right, you're damn right I'm a winner, Jiwani' during the inevitable update at 13:37 on Tuesday.

Match of the Day

There's another war brewing here, and it's something of a class war. In the blue (and yellow) corner, representing the working classes, from the North, we have Overturn, for whom phrases of hearts on sleeves and old-boots toughness were designed. And in the red (with white and navy bits) corner, representing the South, we have Simonsig, the private jet of thoroughbreds.

My analytical head rules my proletariat, Hartlepool heart in this instance. Even the staunchest Overturn supporters can envisage Simonsig, full of running, looming upsides approaching two out. The closer to evens Simonsig gets, the more I'm likely to play up my Tent winnings. Toffs 1-0 Tradesmen. Punters 2-0 Bookies.

Tuesday's C.H.I.L.D. Has Pull In Chase

C.H.I.L.D. Cheltenham Handicapper Imploring Large Downpayment. Malcolm Jefferson is preparing his lightning as we speak, having struck twice at the 2012 Festival last year with two horses who are back for more this year. Most eyes are on Cape Tribulation, who's going for Gold, but the other one, Attaglance, is the likelier to hit the mark again, in the recently renamed Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap.

Having won the Martin Pipe off 139, then followed up at Aintree off 144, Attaglance gets in here with a mark of just 133, after a chasing campaign that smacks of saving up for Cheltenham. Pottering round in small-field novices, though jumping well, isn't what Attaglance is about, but taking that route has helped towards what's obviously a lenient mark compared to his hurdles form, and we could well see a different proposition in the last race on Tuesday.

Read Jamie's Previews of days Two, Three and Four.

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A couple from the past

The Champion Bumper - statistical view on this race from Timeform

Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Reported 1st February

 

Timeform Radio Cheltenham Preview Podcasts - Currently available here

The Chasers
Alan Dudman is joined by Timeform's Head of Editorial, Simon Walker, for a thorough assessment of the National Hunt senior chasing divisions. Henry de Bromhead joins the team live on the line and there are contributions from Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, and Martin Keighley as we preview some of the biggest races at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival including the Sportingbet Champion Chase and the Betfred Gold Cup.


The Hurdlers
Presenter Alan Dudman is joined by Dan Barber, National Hunt Editor at Timeform, as the 2013 renewals of both the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and the Stan James Champion Hurdle are the focus of this Cheltenham Festival Preview Podcast.
Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, and Donald McCain are just a few of the trainers to offer their thoughts in anticipation of some thrilling contests at the home of jump racing.



The Novice Chasers
Alan Dudman and Timeform Chase Handicapper Phil Turner preview the headline Novice Chase races to be run at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival.
David Pipe, Tom Taaffe, Nicky Henderson, and Dessie Hughes are some of the leading trainers to offer insight into how their horses have prepared for this, the showpiece meeting of the National Hunt Season.



The Novice Hurdlers
The countdown to the 2013 Festival continues with an in-depth preview from Cheltenham Radio (powered by Timeform) examining the Novice Hurdle races set to be staged at Prestbury Park next week.
Alan Dudman hosts proceedings with Timeform's Chief Reporter Martin Dixon providing expert analysis. Trainers Jessie Harrington, John Quinn, Rebecca Curtis, and Jeremy Scott all give us the inside track on their preparations.



Find more Festival coverage in our Cheltenham Zone »

 

Timeform's Top Horses

Image 1 covers Chasers, Hurdlers and Juvenile Hurdlers
Image 2 covers Novice Chasers, Novice Hurdlers and NH Flat Horses

For the full list, including Europe, Australasia and N America

 

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Timeform's View

Cheltenham Festival 2013: Handicappers' Corner Special

Politics certainly isn't the only field in which "a week is a long time", explains jumps handicapper Phil Turner...

Indeed, I can report that it has been quite an eventful seven days for Welsh-born Evertonians who put ratings on horses for a living. It began with Everton being unceremoniously dumped out of the FA Cup by unfancied Wigan, whilst the day job got off to a similarly unpromising start when My Tent Or Yours (14lb clear on Timeform ratings) suffered defeat in the Cheltenham Festival opener on Tuesday. Fortunately, things rallied splendidly thereafter, and the week ended with Bobs Worth leading home a one-two-three for Timeform ratings in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Everton beating Premier League champions Manchester City. Oh, and in case anyone missed Saturday evening's rugby result, Wales thumped England to claim the Six Nations' title again. Smug doesn't even come close to covering it...

Although Wales ruled the roost in the rugby, it was Ireland - and particularly Willie Mullins - who stole the honours at the Cheltenham Festival, claiming a record haul of 14 wins. Mullins supplied five of those successes, with pride of place going to Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h173), who became the first horse since Comedy of Errors in 1975 to regain his Champion Hurdle crown when producing a gutsy display to beat 2012 winner Rock On Ruby (h168) and Countrywide Flame (h164) - though the performances of the latter pair did provoke thoughts of "what might have been" with Darlan (h170), who was set to beat that pair comprehensively at Doncaster last month when suffering a fatal fall.

That's 15 Grade 1 wins now for Hurricane Fly, which is a remarkable achievement that arguably hasn't received the credit it deserves. Indeed, many of the pre-Cheltenham preview nights downplayed Hurricane Fly's record due to him "beating the same horses on Irish soil". The folly of this argument was further highlighted when Solwhit (h164) - defeated by Hurricane Fly on four out of their five meetings - showed himself to be better than ever when winning the World Hurdle. Hot favourite Oscar Whisky (h167) patently failed to give his running in the World Hurdle but, happily, that proved to be the exception to the rule during Festival week, with most of the leading players running to somewhere near their best and producing some reliable-looking results.

Take the Gold Cup, for example, which saw all of the leading players run to form, Bobs Worth (c179) emerging as an above-average winner of the race as he stayed on strongly in the rain-softened conditions to beat Sir des Champs (c173) by seven lengths, with 2011 hero Long Run (c172) finishing third for the second year running - the last-named gelding is now rated on the balance of his form over the past two seasons. Silviniaco Conti (c172+) could well have stirred things up had he not fallen three out when still going strongly and, along with the Gold Cup first two, underlined what a vintage crop of novice chasers we enjoyed in 2011/12.

Second-season chasers duly dominated the other open Grade 1 chases at the meeting, with Cue Card (c175) proving far too strong for First Lieutenant (c166) and For Non Stop (c163) in the Ryanair Chase, in which 2012 winner Riverside Theatre (c162) could manage only fourth this time around. The Ryanair provided long overdue recognition on the big stage for Cue Card and confirmed our view that he is one of the very best horses in training - he now shares the same rating as Cheltenham absentee, and fellow second-season chaser, Flemenstar (c175) and they sit below only Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre in the Timeform chase rankings.

Ah yes, Sprinter Sacre. As many readers may already be aware, Sprinter Sacre's imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6, whilst the Tom Dreaper-trained superstars of the 1960s, Arkle and Flyingbolt, are the only horses to have achieved a higher rating in Timeform's 65-year history. It could be argued that the Champion Chase should be rated even higher, as neither of the placed horses have been rated as running to their very best Timeform figure, though a late stumble (plus the effort of trying to match strides with Sprinter Sacre) almost certainly contributed to 2011 winner Sizing Europe (c173) tiring close home as he finished 19 lengths back in second, running some 6lb below his best.

Simonsig (c162P) remains the most plausible challenger to stable-companion Sprinter Sacre in 2013/14, even though his win in the Arkle Chase wasn't quite as impressive as most had imagined it would be. That said, the grey still ran to a very high level of form in defeating Irish raider Baily Green (c157), who had a better chance on form than the betting suggested. In addition, Simonsig rather compromised his chance by racing too freely and jumping less fluently than usual, so it reflects well on him that he still had enough in reserve to hold on in the latter stages - particularly as fellow pacesetters Overturn (c156) and Arvika Ligeonierre (c155) folded tamely out of contention.

With the exception of Simonsig, the novice chasers on show at last week's Festival didn't look anything out of the ordinary and seem unlikely to be emulating that vintage crop from last season come next March. By contrast, there was an abundance of potential top-class performers to be found amongst the novice hurdlers in action over the four-day meeting.

Despite that chastening defeat in the Supreme Novices', My Tent Or Yours (h167) remains very much one to consider for the 2014 Champion Hurdle, the manner in which he tanked through the race (combined with some very fluent jumping) going a long way to confirm the striking impression he'd made when winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. His Achilles' heel at this stage remains his response to pressure against a very tough opponent - his Cheltenham second to Champagne Fever (h165) was a carbon copy to the latter stages of last season's Aintree bumper, when he lost out to The New One.

It also needs stressing that the 2013 Supreme looks a vintage renewal, with Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and third-placed Jezki (h162) pulling fully 15 lengths clear of the remainder off a sound pace. In addition, it is worth remembering that Sprinter Sacre also failed to get up the hill so well as seemed likely after pulling very hard for Tony McCoy when only third in a similarly strong Supreme in 2011, so it is certainly too soon to be writing off My Tent Or Yours.

The aforementioned The New One (h155p) could be renewing rivalry with My Tent Or Yours in 2013/14 if connections opt to drop him in trip following his impressive win in the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle. The New One certainly showed an impressive turn of foot to put that race to bed after a steady early gallop, whilst the likes of Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Rock On Ruby all contested this 21-furlong novice championship 12 months prior to tasting Champion Hurdle glory for the first time.

Perhaps the brightest Champion Hurdle hope to emerge from last week's Festival, however, was Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor (h160p), who posted the highest rating by a juvenile since Jair du Cochet (163 in 2000/01) and subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Hors La Loi III (162p in 1998/99). The Triumph form made plenty of sense amongst the main pack, so it is safe to assume that Our Conor is full value (at the very least!) for his 15-length winning margin and he should prove a formidable opponent to Hurricane Fly on Irish soil next winter.

In common with Our Conor, At Fishers Cross (h153p) can boast a 100% record in 2012/13 - including a defeat of The New One - and he justified favouritism in highly satisfactory fashion in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. It was a landmark Grade 1 victory for up-and-coming trainer Rebecca Curtis and ensured it wasn't the only Welsh victory over highly-touted English rivals last week...

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Oddy, Alan King, in the current edition of 'The Weekender', says that he watched the conclusion of the CGC with a wry smile on his face as he recalled Invictus' last race which as you say saw him beat both Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti.

He said that he fully expects the old boy to return next term. Certainly if returning in the same form as his novice days Invictus has the potential to be a major player in 2013/14.