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Timeform Corner Archives

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, May 8, 2013.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    A place to archive all the Tandem Corner articles etc


    Timeform Corner


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    Timeform's View

    Sectional Debrief: Newmarket, May 4
    Simon Rowlands analyses the sectionals from 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket...

    It does not need me to tell you that an unbeaten five-length winner of the 2000 Guineas is a good horse. That is what Dawn Approach has achieved, and it was impossible not to be impressed by his authoritative victory on Saturday.

    That said, when a horse records a performance like this it is as well to try to determine whether it is every bit as good as it looked. In this respect, there may be a glimmer of hope for those looking to take on the Godolphin star in the future.

    What the clock tells us is that Dawn Approach's overall time was modest for a horse of his standing, given a couple of the times recorded elsewhere on the card under what were quick conditions. What sectionals - provided by TurfTrax as part of the QIPCO British Champion Series - tell us is that the Guineas was run at a notably strong pace and that Dawn Approach ran his race more efficiently, compared to his overall time, than did any of his rivals.


    Dawn Approach was consistently 0.56s or 0.57s off the leader until after halfway, and got involved only thereafter, leading 2f out and storming clear. Only, it wasn't "storming" clear compared to how other horses have finished the Guineas, just compared to those up against him on the day that were understandably flagging to varying degrees.

    Dawn Approach's final 1f of 13.21s was slower than those for the other winners listed above, even Camelot (13.09s) on much softer ground 12 months before. It was also slower than every horse in the (steadily-run) mile handicap that concluded Saturday's card. This is testament to just what a strong pace there was in this year's Guineas.

    If such a performance had occurred in an ordinary handicap, you might suggest that the winner was clearly best but that a few of his rivals could have finished a bit closer had they run more efficiently.

    The chief sufferer ended up being Toronado, who ran the final 1f markedly slower than any other horse in the first eight and possibly went wrong. Toronado's sectionals in previous races suggested he was a high-class performer, but none of those races unfolded in the manner that this one did.

    In summary, Dawn Approach is not only good but had the circumstances which enabled him to show that off to excellent effect. That may not always be the case.


    The other races at Newmarket on Saturday were a mixed bag of truly-run and falsely-run events. Sole Power and Secretinthepark both ran their races most efficiently, coming from a bit off a strong pace to lead late on. The former recorded a particularly good time.

    Boonga Roogeta went quickly enough in front in the opener, but none of her rivals made much headway and the result is probably best accepted. Windhoek and Glean won messy races but in a style that suggests they were deserving winners even so. The Jockey Club Stakes won by Universal was run at a crawl and resulted in a remarkably fast finish (and a remarkably slow overall time): it looks form to treat with caution, with the winner unlikely to get things his way so much next time.

    There were, in short, not many eyecatchers on the card outside the obvious. But one worth taking a chance with is Bapak Sayang (80 sectional rating), fifth behind Secretinthepark in the 3-y-o handicap. He went faster than ideal but stayed in front until after 2f out and still beat twice as many as beat him. A race at 5f or 6f could come his way before long, especially if he can lead without going quite this quickly.

    To Follow: Bapak Sayang
    To Oppose: Universal

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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Timeform's View

    Timeform Notebook: Red Devil to score next time

    Timeform pick out a horse that caught the eye at Chester last week and hopefully won't be long in breaking his maiden...

    The Tom Dascombe yard were firing on all cylinders at Chester last week and Fine 'N Dandy, a strong, powerful juvenile making his second start, was a particularly impressive winner, displaying speed in abundance to break from an advantageous draw and blitz his rivals in remarkable fashion. That performance was arguably the best we have seen from a two-year-old this season and dreams of Royal Ascot success would not appear to be too fanciful on the back of such a display. Understandably, the eight-length winner attracted most of the post-race attention, but it would be a mistake to overlook the obvious promise of the third-placed horse, Salford Red Devil, and he is this week's Notebook horse.

    Making his racecourse debut, Salford Red Devil was handed a formidable task having to break from the widest stall. Slowly away, he was trapped wide in the early stages and had yet to pass a rival as they swung for home. However, upon straightening, Salford Red Devil appeared to get the hang of things, picking off rivals and snatching third on the line, despite being subject to a considerate ride on his first start.

    There were plenty of positives to take from such an encouraging debut and Salford Red Devil, trained by the in-form Richard Fahey, looks sure to benefit from the experience. He looks like the type to make above-average improvement on his next start and is worth keeping an eye on.

    Timeform Notebook:

    Loving Spirit was in action at Ascot on Saturday, competing in the ultra-competitive Victoria Cup, and, although failing to finish in the money, he produced a promising if somewhat unlucky effort in eighth. Having travelled as well as anything, Loving Spirit was just starting to make headway when he found trouble with a couple of furlongs left to run. Though sticking on gallantly once in the clear, the leaders had flown and Loving Spirit never looked like reeling them in. He certainly caught the eye, however, justifying our decision to include him in the Notebook, and a step up in trip to contest the Hunt Cup at the Royal Meeting could pay dividends.

    Jamaican Bolt - Of interest in five-furlong handicaps with cut in the ground.

    Mombasa - Of interest in handicaps, particularly if stepped up to one and a half miles.

    Loving Spirit - One to note in seven furlong or one-mile handicaps.

    Border Legend - Remains unexposed and one to bear in mind for handicaps.

    Galileo Rock - A strong stayer who can make an impact at Group level when the emphasis is on stamina.

    Pether's Moon - An unexposed, progressive three-year-old that started life in handicaps on a good mark.

    Salford Red Devil - Plenty of promise on debut and well up to winning a maiden.

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  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Timeform's View

    Jamie Lynch's Derby Preview: Staying with the family

    What's the key race ahead of this year's Derby? Is it the Guineas, or the Derrinstown, or the Dante? Jamie Lynch suggests it may in actual fact be a maiden hurdle at Limerick in 2005 as he unravels the pivotal issue of the race...

    On April 24th, the day of the inconsequential Derby Trial at Epsom, the wider racing world paid tribute at the passing of a horse who changed the face of breeding, Storm Cat. The sire of over 100 Graded winners, including eight champion racehorses, Storm Cat's fee, at his height, was $500,000, though as many as 91 of his yearlings sold for $1m or more. His legacy lives on, by bloodline but also by name, with related 'Cats' still purring and pursing around the globe today.

    Two such 'Cats', Fantasticat and Danticat, a son and grandson respectively of Storm Cat, met one July evening in a two-year-old maiden at Tipperary in 2003. Danticat emerged on top, but from then on the pair took very different paths: a tale of two kitties, you could say.

    While Danticat's career consisted of pot-hunting around Ireland, picking up low-grade handicaps, including over hurdles, Fantasticat took off once rerouted to his spiritual home in the USA, winning the Super Derby - yes, the Super Derby - at Louisiana and ending up in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

    He could be a key piece of evidence in the specific conundrum of this year's Derby at Epsom, 'he' being not the Super Derby winner but the humble pot-hunter.

    Danticat is out of Colonial Debut, making him a half-brother to Hymn of The Dawn and, crucially therefore, a near-relation of Dawn Approach, effectively his uncle. In Danticat, here we have a horse who, by Tale of The Cat, was bred to be a miler, but showed sufficient stamina to win at an extended mile-and-a-half on the Flat and as far as two miles over hurdles; and stamina, and stamina alone, is the will-he-won't-he riddle over Dawn Approach in the Derby. And it is a riddle.

    What needs economising when it's at a premium, no doubt.

    And what can you run out of, but not run without.

    What proof was in Rum but was lacking in Whisky.

    What goes down even when saved, making stretching it risky?

    Stamina. That's what makes the Derby the ultimate test, as it challenges endurance as well as ability. Nobody is questioning Dawn Approach's ability, and nobody is questioning his would-be stamina from the male line of his pedigree, which, from three generations back, reads Sadler's Wells, Derby winner (Galileo), Derby winner (New Approach). The doubt lies elsewhere, principally in the other half of his breeding.

    Naturally, there is a fear-factor involved in a horse going four furlongs further than he's ever been before, especially against rivals that are guaranteed to improve for the distance, but the sceptic squadron who are gunning for the distaff side of Dawn Approach's pedigree - the dambusters as we'll call them - are perhaps overlooking the starker evidence, including Danticat's testimony for the defence.

    Dawn Approach goes into the Derby with a Timeform rating (132) that, in the last 25 years, only Generous and Workforce have surpassed in actually winning the race. That's how exceptional he already is. By Timeform reckoning, Dawn Approach has upwards of 11 lb in hand of the Derby pack, the equivalent of around six lengths, giving him some leeway for a 'get away if not quite stay' performance. I think he'll stay, which is all that can be said. It's impossible to know or to be forthright, but you can put a price on it.

    If the Derby was run over a mile, or even a mile and a quarter, Dawn Approach would be nearer [1.4], reflective more of his proven ability and less of his invisible stamina. As it is, he's around [2.04], suggesting it's 50/50, a coin toss, as to whether he stays or not. It's not though, is it? But neither is it as simple as all that...

    The Racemakers will be out in force at Epsom, but the ones with a Qipco jacket and vainglorious smile will be put into the shade when the true, blue-ticked Racemakers roll into town: Ballydoyle. These are the boys who can really make and shape a race for you. They will have a plan to beat Dawn Approach, and however many horses it takes, betting without the one (most probably Flying The Flag) in there to set 'a nice, even tempo', in the same way that McDonalds likes to provide nice, even food.

    The faster they go, the greater the stamina test, the better for their stayers, and the worse for Dawn Approach. That's the presumed logic, though Aidan O'Brien has sometimes bowled a googly when least expected, and it's least expected in this year's Derby. Either way, the Ballydoyle challenge won't be what it might have been, remembering how Kingsbarns blew away his teammates - Battle of Marengo included - in the private trial ahead of the Racing Post Trophy, then blew away the field in the race itself.

    It wasn't in the conventional way, but Telescope inadvertently had his Derby claims advertised on Dante day, firstly by the Dante, conspicuous by his absence, aspiring to be substandard in the event, and secondly by Elkaayed, whom he beat in a maiden last year, looking a potential Group horse with an impressive win at Newmarket a few hours later. However, Telescope has lost his only race this year, his race against time, now ruled out of Epsom, calling for a stiff upper lip to hide the embarrassment that Britain can't win its own Derby

    The shortcomings of the British defence, coupled with what looks a Ballydoyle B-Team, sheds some light on the gathering weight of support and momentum behind the overseas pair, Ocovango and Chopin, though neither should be so short as they are in the market.

    If Ocovango's recent scrambling win had been a listed race - which is about all the form amounts to - rather than the Prix Pour Moi, then two plus two wouldn't equal five, while Chopin, or Anbrechen Ansatz - Dawn Approach in German - as the volks back home evidently regard him, is indeed comparable to Dawn Approach in that he's head and shoulders above his direct contemporaries and unproven beyond a mile, but the pair are chalk and cheese, or colcannon and sauerkraut, in terms of substance and pedigree.

    There are holes to be picked in all of the opposition, just as there's a Danticat-shaped hole in the argument that Dawn Approach has no supportive stamina on his dam's side, and the deeper you get the more it looks a simple case of his winning depending on whether or not he'll stay, which, for me, is 80/20 in his favour rather than the 50/50 coin toss the market says it is.

    Conjecture rules in racing, but the facts are these: Dawn Approach is from a stallion line of Derby winners, he's out of a half-sister to a winning hurdler, he's unbeaten all along, he has got better with each step up in trip, his style and temperament is conducive to a mile and a half, and, most crucial of all, he's the best horse in the race, by far. Put it like that and it's not a hard riddle, and he's no even-money shot.

    Hey diddle diddle, Danticat solved a riddle, and Dawn won the Derby in June.

    Recommendation:

    Back Dawn Approach to win the Derby

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  4. Gladness

    Gladness Member

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    Interesting article. Mind you Red Rum was a sprinter on the flat....hurdles & fences can be quite different.

    Hope he wins, because if he does he will be an exceptional horse, proving like buses, none for a while, then one after another.
     
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  5. Dexter

    Dexter Well-Known Member

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    I think Monksfield ran over 5f as a 2-y-o as well...barely remember that.
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Timeform's View

    Handicappers' Corner: Dawn's failure contributes to low view of Derby form
    Much of the pre-race focus on the Derby centred on Dawn Approach, the clear form choice, but with him badly fluffing his lines, it left the way open for others to enhance their reputation. David Johnson looks at the action from the weekend from the Timeform Ratings perspective...

    As a keen scholar, Sheikh Mohammed is no doubt aware of Latin phrases such as 'Audaces fortuna iuvat' (fortune favours the bold) and 'Si nihil temptes raro cade' (If you attempt nothing, you will rarely fail). Few anticipated that Dawn Approach's attempt to stretch out to the Derby trip would result in such a spectacular failure as transpired on Saturday, his chance all but over before the field had even finished climbing so hard did he pull in the opening stages.

    Instead it was the unbeaten Ruler of The World that became the first horse to win a British classic whilst wearing cheekpieces that triumphed, a length and a half ahead of Libertarian with the field quite well bunched in behind, a result that takes some unravelling.

    The winner of this year's Derby has been credited with a bare form rating of 122+, which historically is very much on the low side, only Pour Moi (120+) and Sir Percy (119+) have run to lower figures in victory since 1970. Based on the last five runnings, standards suggest a figure of 123/120/125/125/125 for Ruler of The World.

    The run of the race was obviously crucial to how things panned out, and contributed to a lowish view being taken of the form. A fair early pace steadied notably mid-race and led to something of a sprint finish, (the race returned a moderate timefigure of just 97) and those that raced handily were seen to better effect than the closers, the first two both worth extra over the bare result.

    Ruler of The World earns a new master rating of 124p, and is the one to beat at this stage for the Irish Derby, but Libertarian can give him plenty to think about if he is supplemented for that contest, forced to come from even further back than the winner, and finishing best of all to grab second on the post. He earns a new rating of 122p.

    The third, Galileo Rock was suited by the step up to a mile and a half and earns a new rating of 120, but was better placed than many and it might be that he'll need even further to keep moving forward. Battle of Marengo was also well placed given he dictated, and his rating has been pulled down to 119.

    The next three home look better long-term prospects given the right conditions, Ocovango met trouble and has been rated as finishing joint-third on 120p and looks a leading contender for the Grand Prix de Paris back home, Mars was just about worst placed of all and has been given 3 lb over the bare result to earn a figure of 119p, while the non-staying Chopin is unchanged from his pre-race figure of 119p.

    The Oaks the previous afternoon was run in markedly contrasting fashion (Simon Rowlands' sectionals blog goes into more detail HERE) to the Derby, where the leaders went off too hard, and a patient ride proved an asset.

    Talent came home three and three quarter lengths ahead of stable companion Secret Gesture, but the way the race was run favoured her compared to the runner-up and if they reoppose again it will be no surprise to see the runner-up gain her revenge.

    Historical standards for the Oaks give a wider range than the Derby, 114-125, with a median of 118, and it is that figure which Talent has been given, higher than the three previous winners, but below the likes of Sariska, Look Here and Light Shift.

    A strict interpretation of pounds per length has Secret Gesture 6 lb behind Talent, but because of the way the race was run, Secret Gesture has been given 4 lb over the bare result. Even that is arguably on the conservative side, and she is now rated 116p.

    The campaigning of The Lark is one that will delight her owner breeder, Lady Bamford but will leave punters and readers of Timeform's Horses To Follow pulling their hair out. Selected at the end of her 2-y-o season as one to win a number of handicaps from a BHA mark of 76, she's improved markedly in two runs this season to earn black type for all she hasn't yet gained further success, her third in the Oaks sees her now rated 110.

    The other Group 1 at Epsom was the Coronation Cup which once again went the way of St Nicholas Abbey who became the first horse to win the race in three consecutive years. He's rated 128, essentially as a good as ever a 6-y-o. A strict interpretation of the form could see him rated slightly higher, both on prior rating standards and historical standards, but this was a race where he had only one realistic rival in Dunaden who came in for a negative ride.

    There was also classic action in France this weekend with the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly. Intello had looked a most unlucky loser in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains on his previous start and had no problems making amends, a comfortable two length winner over Morandi. His rating increases to 122p, and he's potentially a high-class colt.

    Although very much in the shadows of Epsom, Doncaster hosted an informative card on Saturday and there are potential clues for Royal Ascot. Remote was as easier a winner of the one-mile handicap as you are likely to see, and his rating of 115p suggests he's up to mixing it out of handicaps. The fact he's also proven at a mile and quarter means the Tercentenary Stakes could be on his agenda.

    That race, or the King Edward VII could be a target for Elkaayed after he easily won the three-runner minor event later in the afternoon. He's won both his starts this year and is now rated 112p. Finally, Rex Imperator (115) caught the eye when finishing second in the 7f won by Diescentric. Back down to the mark he defied at Windsor last summer, he'll be among the pick of weights for the Wokingham if that's the target of his new trainer William Haggas.
     
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  7. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Interesting write up (thanks Ron). Must admit I'm in the OddDog kennel and can't understand the comments on Secret Gesture and Talent's relative ratings. Talent met just as much trouble as Secret Gesture did in the race. Much too much has been made of Becket's comments about Secret Gesture after the race. His political job was sensibly to commend the runner up, his other horse had won he didn't have to commend her.

    Looking physically at the two fillies Talent is a greyhound and Secret Gesture is a bonny filly. It may be that the latter takes her racing better than Talent in the future, but Talent apparently is lazy as hell so may not waste what there is on the gallops. Highes says he knew he had the race won coming into Tattenham Corner he was going so well. Meanwhile upfront Secret Gesture was slogging it out. I think Secret Gesture may be a good filly but Talent may be a very good filly with a change of pace and I think at weight for sex may have the beating of Ruler of the World. I guess that says I rate Talent 3lbs better than Timeform are saying (at least), which is giving her full due for her win over Secret Gesture.

    We won't have a clue what's what until August at the earliest and I sincerely hope Talent having won 3 races from 4 starts does more than her ancestor Bireme who won her Oaks and never ran again having won 3 races from 4 starts.
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    I remember Bireme. Very nice filly, by Grundy if I remember correctly. Didn't she scoot to an impressive victory in the Oaks trial at Lingfield?
     
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  9. Janabelle13

    Janabelle13 Well-Known Member

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    The strange coincidence is that Bireme won in the colours that are now used by Qatar Racing!
     
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  10. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    They are very similar Janabelle but not quite the same as Hollingsworth's colours had a gold tassel as well. If you watch Thwart's win in May she wore the Hollingsworth colours (as they are Mark Dixon's) and there was a Qatar horse in the same race.
    Bireme won the Musidora
     
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  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    So she did. I could have sworn she won on a switchback course before the Oaks. Memory playing tricks. <laugh>
     
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  12. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    She was injured on the road after the Oaks so there's no knowing how good she was. Hern ran 3 in the Oaks that year and had the 3rd as well in The Dancer. His other horse was Shoot a Line who was actually the same family as Bireme, but independently developed by none other than her owner Arthur Budgett. She went on to be Champion Filly of that year. She won the Ribblesdale, Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks and Park Hill Stakes. She only finished 5th in the Oaks. So Bireme could have been pretty good if she was considered better by Carson than her.
     
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  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Handicappers' Corner: Juveniles In Focus

    A relatively quiet weekend in terms of significant performances means we take a slightly different approach to our regular feature and David Johnson takes a look at the merits of the current 2-y-o crop, and most importantly, what it means for Royal Ascot...
    The Irish Bank Holiday meeting at Naas last Monday is the pivotal place to start when looking at the current 2-y-o crop with the winners of the two listed races currently occupying the top two places in the division.


    TWO YEAR OLDS at 10th June 2013

    109p STUBBS
    108p SANDIVA
    107p COACH HOUSE
    103p THUNDER STRIKE
    101p SAAYERR
    100p ANTICIPATED
    100 HEART FOCUS
    100 RIZEENA
    100 SACHA PARK
    99p TOOMORE
    98p ASTAIRE
    98p BELDALE MEMORY
    98p ERTIJAAL
    97p NAJM SUHAIL
    97+ JUSTICE DAY
    97 CLUB WEXFORD
    97 STEVENTON STAR
    96p FINE'N DANDY
    96p GREEN DOOR
    96p PENIAPHOBIA

    The colts and geldings race went the way of the Aidan O'Brien-trained Stubbs, who, with a rating of 109p, is the highest rated juvenile to have run so far. Richard Fahey's Sandiva was an impressive winner of the Fillies' Sprint Stakes and she's rated 108p, they are ahead of Stubbs' stable companion Coach House (107p) and Richard Hannon's Thunder Strike 103p.

    These horses all have something in common, in that they have all been victorious in listed company, and it must be emphasised at this stage, that running to a high rating for juveniles, is as much about opportunity as it is ability. Those horses that have been able to test themselves in better company, have had more of a chance to show their maximum, than those that have been kept to maiden and novice company so far.

    Stubbs has won the right races so far, he emulated Cristoforo Columbo when breaking his maiden at Navan, and it was Dawn Approach last year that won the listed race at Naas that he was successful in last week.

    Though he was well on top at the finish, how strong that listed race proves remains to be seen, he was the only previous winner in that field of four, and it turned into a 2f sprint, the overall time much slower than that recorded by Sandiva half an hour later.

    Sandiva's race looks much more solid, and she has created an excellent impression to win her two starts to date. The race she won was run at a strong gallop and she readily held off Heart Focus (100) by 2 lengths, the pair 4½ lengths clear of Fig Roll in third.

    A rating of 108p would have been sufficient to have won each of the last five renewals of the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, and if that does prove Sandiva's target, then she deserves to be a short-priced favourite for it.

    It would be a surprise if Coach House were to take on stablemate Stubbs, so perhaps the Norfolk is a more likely target for him, a race O'Brien has won just the once, with Johannesburg in 2001. He's been kept to 5f so far, his most notable success when landing a listed race at the Curragh at the Irish Guineas meeting.

    Thunder Strike is set to be Coventry bound after his Woodcote success, where Richard Hughes is unlikely to face a straightforward decision over what to ride, his retained stable having four other juveniles in Timeform's top twenty.

    It's unlikely they'll all go for the Coventry, but one that surely will is Toormore, who ran to 99p, a high level for a debutant, when winning a Leicester maiden at the end of May. He had only a neck to spare over William Haggas' Ertijaal (98p), but the pair pulled 7 lengths clear of the rest, recording timefigures of 102 and 101 in the process. Both would be worth their place in the Coventry despite their lack of experience.

    The Norfolk Stakes was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2006, whilst the Windsor Castle was made a listed race in 2005. It's arguable that race is due a further upgrade given the level taken to win the two races isn't that different.

    The median rating for the Norfolk winner over the last five seasons is 105, and as high as 103 for the Windsor Castle for the same time period.

    Fine 'N Dandy (96p) looked Royal Ascot material when routing his field in a maiden at Chester's May meeting and looks primed to go well over the minimum trip in whatever race he contests, but Salford Red Devil who was behind him at Chester that day looks sure to give him more of a race should they meet again.

    Salford Red Devil (95p) got off the mark at the same track this weekend and was most impressive, value for much further than the winning distance, having to work hard to get across from a wide draw and maintaining a strong gallop when the other pacesetters dropped away. A step up in grade is in the offing for him.
     
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  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Timeform Notebook: Kingman a future star

    The Timeform Notebook returns, highlighting a brace of two-year-old that could go right to the top...

    John Gosden's sole winner at Royal Ascot 2013 was Remote, who stormed to success in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes, and it is a half-brother to that horse that makes the Notebook this week. Kingman, out of the French 1000 Guineas winner Zenda, herself a half-sister to the high-class sprinter Oasis Dream, could hardly have created a better impression when winning on debut at Newmarket on Saturday, earning a price of [12.5] for the 2014 2000 Guineas in the process.

    It probably wasn't the most hotly-contested of maidens to be run at the track in terms of the form achieved by those behind the principals but Kingman ran out a hugely impressive winner, putting six lengths between himself and the second with a further five lengths back to the third, running to a very big figure for a newcomer. That figure is backed up by a quick time and, although it's clearly early days, it would come as no surprise were Kingman to take high rank amongst the season's juveniles with a tilt at the Solario Stakes, which his trainer won in 2007 with a certain Raven's Pass, reportedly on the cards.

    The second to juvenile to make our list is Ertijaal, who made an encouraging debut behind Richard Hannon's well-regarded Toormore before getting off the mark at Yarmouth last Thursday. The latter event was very much a one-sided affair, Ertijaal being sent off the 1/4 favourite and duly obliging by six lengths, but it is the manner of his success that is worth noting.

    A good time gives substance to Ertijaal's achievement, travelling powerfully under Paul Hanagan before easily drawing clear when asked for a modicum of effort, creating a most positive impression and marking himself down as an exciting prospect. Well-bred and in good hands, Ertijaal looks certain to be making an impact in pattern races in the near future, with connections signalling the July Stakes as a possible target.


    Flat Notebook 2013

    Three Notebook entrants were in action last week with each of the frustratingly finishing second. Galileo Rock finished a length and three-quarters behind Trading Leather in the Irish Derby and running to a similar level as when third in the English equivalent, throwing down a challenge a furlong out but ultimately unable to match the winner's turn of foot. He remains on course for the St Leger, a race which will suit ideally, and it was no surprise to see his price firm up on the back of this effort.

    Salford Red Devil got himself off the mark at the second time of asking, having previously been highlighted by this column, and having skipped Royal Ascot in favour of a return to Chester he really should have followed up. On the back foot after a slow start, Lee Topliss elected to rush him up wide around the turn whilst Franny Norton sealed a smoother passage for eventual winner Suzi's Connoisseur. Salford Red Devil remains open to improvement, can gain compensation before long, and it is of note that he holds an entry in a listed event at Sandown this coming Friday.

    Mankini, included in the Notebook after winning on handicap debut at Newmarket in June, was unable to follow up from a 4 lb higher mark but it was more due to how the race was run at Leicester last Thursday that him being hindered by his revised mark. The eventual winner opened up a clear advantage and nothing got into it from behind, Mankini arguably doing well to get as close as he did, and it would be a surprise were he not to prove capable of better still, a point he could prove at Doncaster on Friday.

    Current List:

    Jamaican Bolt - Of interest in five-furlong handicaps with cut in the ground.

    Mombasa - Of interest in handicaps, particularly if stepped up to one and a half miles.

    Loving Spirit - One to note in seven furlong or one-mile handicaps.

    Border Legend - Remains unexposed and one to bear in mind for handicaps.

    Galileo Rock - A strong stayer who can make an impact at Group level when the emphasis is on stamina.

    Pether's Moon - An unexposed, progressive three-year-old that started life in handicaps on a good mark.

    Salford Red Devil - Plenty of promise first two starts, unlucky not to win last time. Can gain compensation.

    Cape Peron - Ultra-progressive three-year-old that already looks like a group-class performer.

    Polar Venture - An unexposed, well-handicapped sprinter capable of better.

    Integral - Impressive winner of only start open to plenty of improvement.

    Mankini - Run of the race against last time rather than revised mark, will get back on track.

    Glorious Protector - Boasts strong form in maidens and unsuited by steady pace on handicap debut.

    My Catch - Maiden who travelled very strongly at Royal Ascot.

    Kingman - Incredibly impressive debut, running to a big figure in a quick time. Very exciting prospect.

    Ertijaal - Above-average early achievements, impressive in success at Yarmouth last time. Pattern performer in the making.
     
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  15. Janabelle13

    Janabelle13 Well-Known Member

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    I've done a fair bit of race watching recently to check the colours as I was pretty sure of my facts but just wanted to be 100%.
    The Qatar colours do have the gold tassel.
    There were two sets of Hollingsworth colours (one with gold braid and one with black braid). Qatar Racing have the gold set (if they have more than one entry in a race the cap colour is changed for second and subsequent entries). Mark Dixon has the black braid set.

    Bireme did win the Oaks and the Musidora, but the Oaks was her last race. Bireme made a winning start as a juvenile by landing a 30-runner Newmarket maiden, but had gone in her coat on returning to the same course a few weeks later when beaten into third in the Houghton Stakes. She won the Musidora Stakes on her reappearance in 1980 before beating Vielle and The Dancer under Willie Carson at Epsom, but never raced again.
     
    #15
  16. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    When did Hollingsworth have black braid? Old Horses in Training always used to have the registered colours in them and Hollingsworth always had the same colours. When he died the colours switched across to his nephew. I certainly didn't pick up that Dixon had changed them, and on the tiny screen I watched Thwart's victory on (her first) the colours looked the same.
    You might be right Janabelle. In the Thwart race I mentioned in which Qatar had a runner I had to work out which was which but they looked slightly different so presumed they were.
    But you may well be right. They just looked different next to each other.
     
    #16
  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Janabelle
    Looks like you are right, but no black, and Qatar have Claret and not the Crimson of Hollingsworth. Looks like they've got away with murder and effectively nicked similar colours.

    Found this on the internet dating back to January;-

    There&#8217;s a spat taking place at the moment over the colours worn by horses in the ownership of Qatar Racing Limited, a company owned by Qatari Sheikh Fahad Al Thani and his brothers. They have registered a set in claret, with gold braid and a gold tassel on the hat, with the British Horseracing Authority. This has upset owner Mark Dixon, who claims that the colours clash with his set &#8211; crimson with silver braid.
    The sheikh&#8217;s racing manager, David Redvers, had tried to buy Dixon&#8217;s set from him, but he was not selling at any price. Dixon is annoyed that the BHA has approved and almost identical design, and, he claims, have bent the rules in allowing Qatar Racing Limited to include braid in their design.
    Dixon says his colours have been in the family for many years. They were carries to Oaks success by Bireme in 1980, when they were registered to his late uncle, Dick Hollingsworth. But the family connection goes back much further than that.
    For their part, the BHA was playing a straight bat yesterday. Spokesperson Robin Mounsey said, &#8220;The rules of racing state that the BHA has discretion to approve or decline any application for a set of colours. It was felt that crimson and claret, when correctly reproduced according to their pantone reference, are sufficiently distinctive. In addition, the different colour braiding applies further differentiation.&#8221; I wonder how the course commentators will fare in driving rain when the horses are at the far end of Goodwood!


    So they are different Claret versus Crimson (I've heard Bordeaux described as crimson loads of times!!) but although they look different when you see them side by side, but you'd have no clue if you just saw one set on its own as they are so similar. Just have your pantone card handy!!!!:grin:
     
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  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Timeform's View

    Timeform Notebook: Brass Ring a knockout bet

    Timeform highlight a horse whose form was given a number of boosts in the past week...

    In a Notebook first, we are retrospectively highlighting the John Gosden-trained Brass Ring as a horse to follow. Brass Ring has only had three runs to date but he has improved markedly with each start and his most recent effort - where he registered a comfortable two-and-three-quarter length success on handicap debut - looks like an exceptional piece of form. Three of the four horses beaten by Brass Ring have since won, while the fourth, Persepolis, finished runner-up on his only subsequent start, beaten by a well-handicapped horse in Goodwood Mirage.

    The form of Brass Ring's Newmarket win was put to the test on three occasions last week and each time his reputation was enhanced. Renew, who was second behind Brass Ring, impressed during the week at Doncaster, finding plenty under pressure to see off a pair of unexposed three-year-olds from top yards. Cafe Society, who had already won in effortless style at Salisbury, shaped best of all in a strong Ascot handicap, losing out due to an ill-judged ride, while Love Marmalade justified strong market support as he blitzed his older rivals. The lightly-raced Brass Ring, who was raised only 5 lb for that Newmarket win, evidently has plenty in hand over the assessor and his return to the track from a reported gelding operation is eagerly awaited.

    Timeform Notebook

    Salford Red Devil - who already endeared himself to Notebook followers when winning his maiden at BSP 5.27 - looked unlucky not to win a minor event at Chester last month (caught wide) but he made amends when scoring at the same venue on Friday evening. Salford Red Devil stayed on strongly to lead near the line and the steadily-progressive juvenile remains open to progress.

    Pether's Moon was clearly unlucky at Royal Ascot, receiving no sort of run, but he had few excuses at Newmarket, simply running into an unexposed and progressive rival in the shape of Havana Cooler. Pether's Moon will be unlucky to run into such a well-treated rival again and is worth persevering with as he is clearly improving in his own right.

    Jamaican Bolt - Of interest in five-furlong handicaps with cut in the ground.

    Loving Spirit - One to note in seven furlong or one-mile handicaps.

    Border Legend - Remains unexposed and one to bear in mind for handicaps.

    Galileo Rock - Performed well at the top level and looks an ideal St Leger candidate.

    Pether's Moon - An unexposed, progressive and well-handicapped three-year-old.

    Salford Red Devil - Steadily progressive, won two of latest three starts.

    Cape Peron - Progressive three-year-old who didn't harm reputation at Royal Ascot.

    Integral - Impressive winner of both starts and could make mark at top level

    Mankini - Will be difficult to beat in handicaps over 10 furlongs or further

    Glorious Protector - Boasts strong form in maidens and unsuited by steady pace on handicap debut

    My Catch - Maiden who travelled very strongly at Royal Ascot.

    Kingman - Incredibly impressive debut, running to a big figure in a quick time. Very exciting prospect.

    Ertijaal - Above-average early achievements, impressive in success at Yarmouth last time. Pattern performer in the making.

    Deserted - Improved when third at Doncaster on second start, will stay further and continue progressing.

    Brass Ring - Form has worked out exceptionally well and is extremely well treated.

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  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Timeform's View

    Handicappers' Corner: Chicquita confirms French strength

    The Irish Oaks at the Curragh took centre stage this weekend with the British action not as strong as in recent weeks. David Johnson looks at what it means from the Timeform ratings angle...

    Chicquita's victory in the Irish Oaks saw her join a select band of classic winners that went into the race as a maiden, Bachelor Duke being the last to achieve that feat in an Irish classic in the Guineas in 2003. Where Chicquita is unique though, is that she's the first winner of an Irish classic that has ever thrown away certain victory after careering into a hedge on an earlier outing.

    A daughter on Montjeu, Chicquita clearly has her share of temperament, as she showed again on Saturday when hanging markedly left into the middle of the track in the closing stages, but it also confirmed that she's a smart filly with the potential to rate higher.

    The Irish Oaks was rather messy, the field finished well bunched after a steady pace, with just 3 lb separating the first five. In a more truly-run race, it's likely the first two would have pulled further clear and that is what the post-race ratings reflect.

    Although running to a bare rating of 115, Chicquita's new master rating is 117p, while the runner-up Venus de Milo has also been given extra over the bare form, her new rating 115p. Rather like with the colts, the Irish Oaks suggests that the French middle-distance fillies are currently ahead of their British and Irish counterparts, Chicquita having finished 4 lengths behind Treve (123p) in the Prix de Diane.

    The performance of Epsom Oaks winner Talent was too bad to be true, but given how that race was run to suit the hold-up horses who have all been below-par subsequently, the level of that race, and her rating, comes down 2 lb to 116.

    Supporting the Irish Oaks, all eyes were on US import Darwin in the Minstrel Stakes. He didn't disappoint and looks likely to progress into a bona-fide Group 1 contender.

    After winning the first of two starts in the US for Todd Pletcher, he's won both starts since coming to Europe, earning a figure of 118p for his defeat of Gordon Lord Byron. A really imposing type physically, Darwin looks likely to have a productive second half of the season.

    There's certainly every likelihood that Darwin (USA) will fare better than O'Brien's Darwin (IRE) who beat only one of his 23 rivals when contesting open Group 1 races in 2001.

    A potential rival for Darwin should he take up either his entry in the Juddmonte International or Irish Champion Stakes could be Sir Michael Stoute's Telescope who belatedly showed in public much of what many a Newmarket gallop watcher suggested he would when making a successful reappearance in a three-runner conditions race at Leicester.

    Those that rely on yardsticks to assess horses merit might tell you the form is useless, coming home 24 lengths and 20 lengths ahead of his two rivals but using more sophisticated methods point to the horse posting a Group 2 standard performance. Rated 104P coming into the race, Telescope is now rated 120p, the timefigure of 118 providing most of the substance to the effort.

    In terms of the middle-distance pecking order, a rating of 120p sees Telescope rated just behind the likes of Trading Leather (122) and Ruler Of The World (121) and leaves Derby ante-post backers wondering what might have been.

    Over in France, the British challengers proved disappointing in the Prix Robert Papin, but the filly Vorda impressed as she maintained her unbeaten record. Now rated 111p, she shares the billing of being the highest-rated European 2-y-o filly in training with Albany winner Kiyoshi.

    The most valuable race in Britain over the weekend was the Super Sprint at Newbury and that went the way of Peniaphobia. Given that Peniaphobia is defined as a 'fear of poverty', connections will doubtless be relieved to have picked up the £122,925 first prize. An increase in his rating to 102 suggests pattern races could be on his agenda, but a tilt at the valuable Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar later in the year is likely to appeal too.

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  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Timeform's View

    Timeform Notebook: Gosden improver to register the hat-trick
    On a fairly low-key weekend of racing, on the domestic front at least, Timeform highlight a lightly-raced improver worth noting...

    Comprising a mixture of in-form, progressive contenders and unexposed types open to plenty of improvement, the penultimate race on Newmarket's Saturday card, a one-mile handicap restricted to three-year-olds, looked like a particularly strong affair and the type of race that would throw up plenty of winners. Unsurprisingly for such a competitive contest there was little to separate the main protagonists; the first four home were covered by little over a length. There was a deserving winner, however, as Breden, hailing from the powerful John Gosden yard, continued his run-to-run progress by staying on strongly to overhaul Top Notch Tonto in the closing stages, in doing so preventing the runner-up from registering successive wins since moving to Brian Ellison.

    Twice unsuccessful as a juvenile, Breden, described as a lengthy colt by Timeform, showed much-improved form on his return this season, justifying strong market support to break his maiden tag at Kempton. Perhaps tellingly, William Buick was willing to get down to his lowest riding weight in order to partner Breden on Saturday (putting up 1 lb overweight at 8 stone 6 lb) and his faith in the horse was vindicated as his partner displayed a willing attitude under pressure to prevail. The narrow margin of the victory should ensure that Breden isn't treated too harshly by the handicapper, while he remains open to plenty of improvement having had just the four starts.

    Timeform Notebook:

    With our list of Notebook horses starting to get a bit long, it is perhaps time to separate the wheat from the chaff, cutting those horses that are either a bit high in the weights now or are no longer of immediate interest.

    Galileo Rock - Performed well at the top level and looks an ideal St Leger candidate.

    Pether's Moon - Authoritative winner at Goodwood last time, could make an impact at listed level or above.

    Cape Peron - Has shaped very well in two ultra-competitive handicaps. Pattern-level performer.

    Integral - Impressive winner of first two starts and not disgraced in the Nassau. Still unexposed.

    Mankini - Progressive, winning three from last four. Better still to come.

    My Catch - Backed up Royal Ascot promise with two French wins, including listed affair last time.

    Kingman - Incredibly impressive debut, running to a big figure in a quick time. Very exciting prospect.

    Ertijaal - Above-average early achievements, impressive in success at Yarmouth last time. Pattern performer in the making.

    Deserted - Improved when third at Doncaster on second start, will stay further and continue progressing now eligible for handicaps.

    Brass Ring - Form has worked out exceptionally well and is extremely well treated.

    Our Queenie - Ran to a strong timefigure on last start and should excel in nursery company for the rest of the season.

    Breden - Twice successful this term and should continue progressing for leading yard.

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