Just going to lob it out there that this will turn out to be the worst Derby since Sir Percy's! The first five will be covered by under three lengths, wonder if I can get odds on that?
I wouldn't think too many G1 mile and a half races finish with five of them within three lengths of the winner Stick. If I was you mate, I'd be sewing my pockets closed, just in case I had a rush of blood to the head.
Oh heck, don't normally touch ante-post as it's usually a lost cause more often than not, but I had a go e/w Dubai Thunder earlier-on at 16-1 cash bet. So did not get that 20-1 price. Now watch the bloody thing declared a non-runner!
Just googled it ....................... Harzand. Some poor winners in the last 10 years ...................Australia, Ruler Of The World, Pour Moi .................. BUT I don't think you can crab this year's renewal as a poor Derby before it has even been run. The King George and Arc winner might be lurking in there
It's looking poor because there is no stand out horse. However there are some nicely bred, lightly raced colts entered and one might emerge head and shoulders above the rest after the race. Some of the unraced ones might emerge after the Derby. I hope so. And I hope we have some decent 3yos and 4yos next year so I can look forward to the Arc in 2018
But in years where we have 1 standout horse, who wins the Derby easily, the moaners say it was a poor Derby because he beat trees. We could be sat here in a years time looking back at the form and saying the Derby winner won the King George and Arc, the Derby 2nd took the St Leger, the 3rd (who didn't seem to stay) dropped back in trip and won the Eclipse and Champion Stakes. None of us have a crystal ball.
Was Australia such a bad winner? 3rd (beaten heads: and very close to Kingman) in the Guineas and after the Derby win won the Irish version and the Juddmonte. Retired after an injury following his Irish Champion 2nd.Not a bad record.
Wouldnt say Australia was a poor winner, class horse. Pour Moi didnt beat much in the Derby but never ran again so who knows.
Anyone any strong views on the Derby this year. Reading through it doesn't appear so. I'm drawn towards Permian right now but my head is telling me Aidan O'Brien will saddle 2 of the first 3 home. I wouldn't touch Cracksman, will do well to place I feel but would gladly liked to be proved wrong, I just can't see it.
In an attempt to beat the fav in the Oaks I'm going for Enable and Natavia And in the Derby, Dubai Thunder and Venice Beach. The former may be too inexperienced but so was Commander In Chief
Doubt if Cracksman will get the trip, too many sprinters in the bottom half and the sire is unproven when it comes to siring stayers.
It won't be written off as a poor Derby if one of the two Frankel colts win it. It'll go down in history. On pedigree Eminent appears to have the better chance, but I intend to back the pair of them. Not with any great confidence, I hasten to add; but it's the Derby, and you have to have a bet.
It is a bit sad to read quite often over the years on this forum things like "well, of course it was a sub-standard Derby, Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle" or whatever. The one I like (or don't like) best of all is about poor old Best Mate. Three consecutive Gold Cups, all supposedly "sub-standard"! Nonsense!
I suppose it's down to what they beat Swanny (ie the achievements of the beaten horses before and after). The problem is of course that they can only beat what turns up and, if they beat them easily, who knows how they would have fared against better horses. If they can't (ie are unable) beat average horses easily then it's safe to assume that they aren't much better than average
True, Ron, but as far as I can remember BM had to work hard for his CGC successes? Always very well ridden by Jim Culloty. It's just that I have never been able to agree that all of the others in those CGC's were average? Haven't checked again lately, mind you, but I doubt it. Same goes for other races often described as sub-standard. Oh, on the Derby, staying with Dubai Thunder. Have to really, already backed it e/w ante-post.