I have moved some posts from the Cheltenham 2016 AP thread as they seemed better placed in a new thread. The first post isn't worthy of an opening post on the subject but it builds up from there. Feel free to put your two penny worth in. I think laying my own would be profitable.
You should try it Ron, laying horses is pretty fun too. I layed quite a few today, though I only made a small profit despite messing around for 4 hours. I find it's actually easier to make money laying them, as it's easier to find a horse that won't win, than one that will
Laying the favourites blindly everyday on Betfair won't be profitable, as you have to lay slightly higher than the bookies, plus Betfair take a small percentage. So you lose the edge that the bookies have over punters. I tend to go through the form and pick out certain favourites that are worth taking on, or if I really fancy the favourite il lay the 2nd favourite. I don't get involved in laying horses at massive prices though, as that's asking for trouble
That would be the sensible thing to do but I might be better off just laying the short priced horses that I think will win The other option would be to ignore form. Lay all favs in certain types of races where the odds are between (say)10/11 and (6/4) and adjust the stakes to guarantee a profit when they lose. If stats indicate on a regular basis that less than 30% win, it should be possible to make money.
Yeah handicap hurdles are good, most handicaps in general are good, as punters put to much emphasis on where a horse finished last time, rather than looking at how the weights are now.
There's only one way to find out if it works, it's quite risky upping stakes, as your chasing losses then, but I know some who do bet that way. I remember when I was younger I thought backing favourites and doubling my stake until 1 won would be an easy way of making money. That was until 15 favourites got beat in a row Though admittedly it's highly unlikely that many will win in a row
Imagine being a bookie when 10 go in on the bounce Best time of year for favourites I reckon is June and July because the ground is firm, I can't imagine 10 going in on the soft
We just need more stats and we could nail this laying lark. Where can i get a database of results that I can analyse?
I don't think systems on horses work though Ron, as if they did everyone would be rich. I still think the only way to win is by putting in the effort and reading the form properly
Hmm. Anyway, I'm off to be now. Must continue with this. I really need a database to analyse and I think I could come up with a strategy. Nice chatting
I took my partner to Cheltenham for the New Years Day meeting a few years ago and for one of the races she bet a couple of quid eway on Mahogany Blaze. I asked her why she had picked that one, to which she replied "Because the jockey is ginger!!" She was made up because young Sam Twiston-Davies managed to grab 3rd at 25/1
A few that could work Laying LTO handicap winners. These are always to short in the market for me, as punters just see the 1 next to there name and ignore the fact it's got an extra 5 pounds on board, and only scraped home by a neck last time. Laying the furthest travellers. I never understand why some people see this as an indication that a horse is going to win. Besides who wants to back a horse that's been in a horse box for 10 hours! Laying all favourites with lady riders on board. No explanation necessary Lay all horses that have been well backed in the market, just before the off. At the price they have been backed down to. Surely there are enough mugs who jump on the bandwagon of a gamble to make it good value to lay. The other good ones to lay are the hype horses of the day, like when McCoy or another big jockey goes somewhere for 1 ride. You can easily lay these horses at a few points shorter than there true odds. It doesn't all of a sudden improve the horses form just because McCoy has travelled for 1 ride. As I say with all gambling bet with what you know, don't allow nonsense like furthest travellers, gambles or McCoy going for 1 ride to cloud your judgement. You will make a lot more money betting purely on the form of a race
Here are some to bear in mind on the All Weather! Southwell 11f H'caps, 8+ runners, drawn 1 - no winners for 47 races!! D Haydn Jones, Sprints on the A/W only 3 winners from last 40 Horses owned by Mrs J Marsh - 213 runners - 202 losers A Berry, Course Direction Left - 241 runners - 239 losers J G Given horses wearing Cheek Pieces - 89 runners - 86 losers Danehill Dancer sired over Long distance - 166 runners - 157 losers Diktat sired wearing either Visor / Hood or Eye Shield - 81 runners - 80 losers Pastoral Pursuits sired 4yo+ - 164 runners - 159 losers Acclamation sired wearing Cheek pieces - 165 runners - 157 losers Miss A Stokell @ Southwell - 198 runners - 194 losers A Balding horses wearing Cheek Pieces - 39 runners - 37 losers J G Given horses wearing Cheek Pieces - 89 runners - 86 losers That is quite a lot to go through on a daily basis - anyone fancy it?
