Cheltenham 2018: Antepost Thread

Will we see Douvan upped in trip after Sizing John's exploits? It's well known Willie wants a GC on his CV and surely Douvan is the one with the potential to fulfil this if he can stay the trip. The way he travels I'd have to say he would have no problem with 3 miles and may have the ability to prove himself over the GC trip.

It's something I'd like to see. The 2 mile division is rank right now and he's just going to beat the same 3 or 4 horses up at 1/10 in Ireland time and time again.

Just checked and he's 12/1 atm.

 

Not a bad shout STH - looks like I'm going to dip back in and put him in some doubles and trebles

Looks like I will have had a couple of quid on every horse running by the time the Festival rocks around again

 

Pretty risky Drever as they may just stick to mopping up egg and spoon races for the €€€'s but I'd think Willie and team must definitely have a chat about it as I don't see much else with the quality to win a GC. Ok, Yorkhill is there next year perhaps but Douvan could be a sensation if getting the trip.

 

I know it's a risk and I'm only throwing these in very small eway combi accas. If I should get lucky with one it will all be worth it - gives me something to think about over the flat season.

 

I'm not much of an ante post backer myself but see no harm in it, if, like you said it's just small bets that may be well rewarded next year. Once you're not putting up a day or weeks wage on 5 horses a day I think your ok

 

Exactly Drever. This is painful.

 

I placed five ante post bets this year.Two didnt run, two didn't place and my only saving grace was Yorkshill to win JLT at 7/2.I'm not a big punter so only down a few quid.I've a couple mates who done their bolix ante post betting- they swear their done with it but always get sucked in every year. I do it more for a bit of craic more than anything but with the prices now being offered and the risks attached that the horse will even run never mind which race means it's not really an attractive betting opportunity anymore. Still no harm done discussing it and chatting about next year's festival!Punt away Drever mlad!

 

We've seen nothing yet. Wait until Minding takes on La Cressonniere

 

Not sure why people are against it? If you trade on Betfair it's a way to guarantee profit. Back to lay is your friend in Ante Post betting. Forget about which horse wins the race. Start thinking about which horse is likely to contract in price. Set yourself a point where you are gong to lay off and start enjoying a few extra quid for nothing. I had a few in 2017 and to be honest, without trading i'd have been crucified this year. As it was, i was just battered and bruised.

 

Of the markets available at the moment, Vroom Vroom Mag appeals in the Mares Hurdle. The Ricci's won't forget that she lost his year so there's no way she runs anywhere other than the Mares race or not at all. They've won the Stayers so there's no incentive to snatch that. She's not capable of winning the CH and they know that. Take the 7/1 and i'd be almost certain you can trade out at 4/1 between now and March. If you can't trade out you have a horse with a very fair chance of nicking the race anyway.

 

Where will Let's Dance go then? Felt she may be aimed here.

 

She may be. They have Limini, VVM, Annie Power and Let's Dance. All four could run in this. However, Annie is likely to be retired so i'd say rule her out. Limini has proven herself to be no better than VVM (who had loads of training problems pre Cheltenham) and Let's Dance, for all she's the best novice mare, was a second season novice so benefitted from loads of extra experience in grade ones as a juvenile so could easily be flattered.

As I mentioned, you don't need to look for the winner. Just the horse that's the wrong price. Take 7's now. Lay the stake off at 4/1. Unless she's retired she's going to mop up easy graded Irish races and her price will come in. If she ends up being aimed at the World Hurdle (she's a blatant non stayer up that Cheltenham hill over the longer distance) then you've got your stake back anyway. If she runs here she goes off 3/1. It's a solid plan.

 

Funnily enough i've been looking at the Ricci horde today and trying to place them.

What have they produced this season? Absolutely nothing apart from Let's Dance who is a second season novice. I would be fairly sure she's going to be shown up as a grade two horse in 2018.

Ricci is going to be very thin on the ground. There's nothing of note in the bumper ranks. This years novices are not good enough. This years Ricci novice chasers are sub par. His best older horses have sadly died or spent the year injured. His flagships, Douvan - flopped - possibly due to an injury at the start of the race. His 2 great hurdlers are injured. I think Rich is going to have a stinker in the one realm he's bothered about - grade one races.

If he's to challenge in the graded novice hurdles i think he needs to have something tucked away we've not seen in a bumper or dig deep and buy something from France.

So to answer that question, i don't think Let's Dance is a massive factor. She's got a hell of a lot to do to prove up to Apple's Jade, Limini and VVM and by Cheltenham i think she will be marginalised.

 

I was wondering if there is a good horse with odds for 2 races (eg Neon Wolf) you could have 1 point on each race. As long as you can lay him off in either race at half the odds to 2 points you are covered with a free bet on the other. If you can lay him off in both it's money for nothing. Just one problem; if he gets injured you have lost 2 points

 

Yeah I had YORKHILL at 5/1 this year...

...for the Arkle

 

Solid points Bob and I agree 100% regarding VVM. I don't think I'm betting a large enough amount (biggest so far being a £10 double) to warrant getting in to back-to-lay.

I can definitely see the attraction of it if I was playing higher stakes though

 

This time last year SENEWALK was supposed to be the next big thing so I had a few quid on him for the Supreme. Huge disappointment on debut so perhaps they put him away to grow up and preserve his Novice status?

Either way, he's towards the head of the betting for the 2018 Supreme so perhaps he's showing something at home?

 

Getabird is there too. Also that French one that hosed up at Limerick one day Benie Adieux?? or soemthing like that. They've plenty to work with, maybe not completely out and out G1 winners but I'm sure Ricci and Kirk are willing to throw a few hundred K the way of some at the sales to renew the team!

Elliott is the one too look at in this respect for laying off bets I feel. He's going to have many bigger than they should be with Willie holding the majority of the market with his.

 

THE WORLDS END 20/1 (RSA), NEON WOLF 12/1 (RSA) and DOUVAN 12/1 (Gold Cup) also added.

 

I like the first two here.