If we take it as read that Donny are up and the two mouths will follow them that leaves 4th to 12th to be in the playoffs so these games could prove vital Colchester v Stevenage 8/4 Doncaster v Mansfield 8/4 Portsmouth v Plymouth 14/4 Colchester v Doncaster 14/4 Wycombe v Mansfield 14/4 Cambridge v Exeter 17/4 Carlisle v Stevenage 17/4 Mansfield v Luton 17/4 Doncaster v Blackpool 17/4 Colchester v Plymouth 22/4 Portsmouth v Cambridge 22/4 Stevenage v Mansfield 22/4 Wycombe v Doncaster 22/4 Doncaster v Exeter 29/4 Mansfield v Portsmouth 29/4 Exeter v Carlisle 6/5 Wycombe v Cambridge 6/5
In terms of likelihood of a top 7 finish, looking at the teams above us: Mansfield have no chance. They have to play Donacster, Wycombe, Luton, Stevenage, Portsmouth and will be doomed before they play Crawley in their final game Blackpool have 9 points virtually in the bag but that alone won't be enough. Their other 3 games, against Grimsby, Accrington and Doncaster will be key for them. Carlisle have 12 points virtually in the bag. That would put them on 74 points so their tough ties against Stevenage and Exeter won't matter Exeter have only 6 points virtually in the bag. They have 4 tough games remaining, against Cambridge , Morecambe, Doncaster and Carlisle. They will need 5 points from those games. Luton have 6 points virtually in the bag and one very winnable game. That would put them on 72 points. Their remaining 3 games are against Mansfield, Accrington and Morecambe. 1 point from those looks achievable Stevenage look to have only 3 points virtually in the bag. They play Colchester, Morecambe, Carlisle, Mansfield and Accrington. They need 5 points from those games to be sure. But they are the form team at present. For us to finish on 73 points and put us in the mix we need to get 15 points from 6 games. We don't have any points virtually in the bag. Realistically we will be pushed to get 12 points which would leave us on 70 points, well short. We could easily finish lower than we are at present. Is it possible?. Well yes, but we need to finish with an excellent run and rely on at least 2 above us ending with a bad run. That means we must have a full squad available for all remaining matches. That alone is a major doubt We know who to bet on lads. That could be our best chance of the play offs
Two things in our favour Doncaster will probably be Champions by the time we play them, & Mansfield the fixtures have not been kind I think eigth would be our position
Play offs would bring us in some good money, but that's about all it is worth to us. Let's face it, we aren't ready for league 1 yet so another year of cementing our position in the top half and a couple more decent summer signings will mean we are fresh for the challenge next year. Don't think we will see more than around 9 points out of the remaining games
Carlisle screw up, dropping 3 points that were "virtually in the bag". Exeter a goal down against Newport Wycombe screw up in what was our best chance of 3 points; we couldn't beat 10 men only 6 points away from relegation. We are already "lower than we are at present". Still possible but that was our chance to put ourselves right in the mix
The only reason we are still in with a shout 4 place,5, 6, 7 all blew it today otherwise we would not be any where near
We should add Stanley to the list of runners and riders they have stretched their unbeaten run to 13 games and now sit on 58pts with a run in of Blackpool A Crawley H Newport A Luton H Stevenage A
With Newport new found form its looking a lot tighter at the bottom so who is going down with the O's
So we have 3 homes games - Mansfield,Doncaster and Cambridge and without a win at Adams Park since early February i've given up on a play off spot and our goal difference doesn't help.
Oh bugger. Now we have to add Colchester to that list. And also Accrington very soon no doubt. We are heading in the wrong direction to even dream of play offs now.
Colchester have 6 points potentially in the bag (Yeovil and Orient). They also play already promoted Doncaster at home and probably an already promoted Plymouth at home. I didn't expect them to beat Stevenage (albeit by 2 own goals) so they could well be in the mix at the end.
I'm not going to go all coy and pretend I think my team won't make it and I also think that Portsmouth will make it too. They are the form horses curently and at the right time. However, we have now entered silly season for results. Out of the teams all the way down to 12th, any one of them could make a dash for the light and make it. I would not like to put odds on who the final 4 for the playoffs will be. There are 5 games left and 15 points to play for. The current 4 occupying the positions are not exactly bursting into life just yet. Exeter can be as bad as they can be good and Carlisle have gone into implode mode. That's 2 spots that are anybody's,
Just lik,e the final 8 games of last season and i thought this was supposed to be the best squad Ainsworth has had.
As I said earlier on the season is in danger of going the same way as last year had a brilliant 3 months November through to January went & lost to Coventry & its been a struggle ever since just doing enough to stay on the fringes.
