Glorious Goodwood Ante Post Tips (Aug 1st - Aug 5th)

Did my usual trawl yesterday to see if I could come up with any value ante post for Goodwood.

Two horses interested me.

First up is EL VIP in the betfred mile. I got this at 25/1 yesterday and he's since been trimmed into 20s best price. Had little luck in running in the Royal Hunt Cup but really fancied him for that beforehand and think he could be a class above that level. Beaten just over 7l in that race (albeit finishing down in 20th) he was effectively tailed off a couple of furlongs out when spencer realised he had no chance (wasn't finding any gaps). Cumani has farmed this race in the past and so I'm willing to take a punt that this will be his main hope this time around.

Second is LIBRISA BREEZE. Really impressive run in the diamond jubilee I think showed he's ready to land a big prize with that turn of foot. 7f here should be ideal and connections seem to be hinting this is the way they'll go as long as there is some cut in the ground. Judging by the run in the diamond jubilee where he was gaining on all at the end (including Harry Angel and Caravaggio) on good to firm, I hope they're not too put off even if there is no rain in the run up. Opposition I don't rate on anywhere near the same level as at ascot and trip will suit more. As an ante post prospect now I've decided against, can still get 8/1 but don't think he'll be that much shorter if and when confirmed for the race. So will wait until then and get on big.

Interested if anyone has any fancies, as always it's weighing up if there's value - thought EL VIP was worth an interest at that price small stakes.

 

Without looking at the form Librisa Breeze is certainly one I would be looking at. I also noted him from the Jubilee. He has a blistering turn of foot which must win him races in big handicaps. This isn't a handicap but I'll still be looking at him

 

Just had a quick look at the runners and I see Limato is in that race. I can't go against him so it would be a dutching bet for me

 

Limato still running to a good level so i agree he'd have a squeak. Just need to see if both are entered - might come too soon for Limato i'd reckon? If they are both amongst the entries then ground will dictate where my money goes - any soft in the description and I think Librisa would be a stand out bet of the week

 

Big Orange at 8/11 to win the’ Goodwood Cup’ (with Annie Power’s brother) has to be one of the worst quote I’ve ever seen in my life. It’s still 2 and a bit weeks to ‘tapes up’ and the race is not without depth. Not saying the old boy won’t be obliging but in my view anyone taking 8/11, right here, right now, wants bally sectioning.

Projection is still weighted to win one of these big sprint handicaps and maybe his turn will come in the ‘Stewards Cup’. 10/1 seems a fair price.

The same yard (Mr Charlton) have a 2YO full brother to Fair Eva and he, Herculean, could make his racecourse debut at the Festival. Should deffo be out within the next 2-4 weeks.

 

Agree with projection and will have a little nibble. The stewards is the confirmed target, not ground dependent, and think he'll be going off half that price (if not shafted by the draw)

 

Am taking the 15/8 about CHURCHILL to win the Sussex. It's a real head to head with Ribchester but I just think that wasn't Churchill's true running the last day. Before that run I'd have this very close to call between the two, something the form plays out using Deauville as a guide. Ribchester has hardly been blowing his rivals away and the 8lb weight for age allowance swings it in Churchill's favour for me. 15/8 a standout price with Coral (6/4 with paddys) and can't see him going off bigger than that on the day.

* EDIT *

I'm holding fire on Churchill for the Sussex. Something nagging away at me that Churchill was found out last time rather than underperforming. Will have more of a ponder and another watch of their races, could be that Ribchester has improved enough to cover the WFA allowance.

 

Adding one more to my ante post portfolio and will just sit back now next week, adding the odd fancy on the day.

SO MI DAR - Nassau Stakes - 8/1.

Can't let this one go unbacked, just small stakes on the win in the hope she's retained all of her ability. Gosden seems happy with her at home and she's the one horse in the field for me that could stick it up to Winter. Will likely go off around 5s id reckon.

So that's:

LIBRISA BREEZE - Lennox - 8/1 EW.
SO MI DAR - Nassau - 8/1 win.
EL VIP - Betfred Mile - 25/1 - EW.
PROJECTION - Stewards Cup - 10/1 - EW.

If all running then I'll be in a great position but Librisa was a stupid ante post bet really as doubt he'll be much shorter if and when confirmed for the race. Projection stands out for me at that (still available) price (thanks Sir Barney Chuckles for the nod) as will definitely be lining up barring mishaps. Trainer has a great record in the race and he's coming to hand perfectly. Can't see that one out of the 4. Of the priced-up bankers for the week Ribchester at evens would be the one I'd go for (though I'm not going to). Was originally in the Churchill camp but just fancy Ribchester will have the class to prevail even if Churchill runs up to his best. Big Orange at 8/11 is laughable, surely the opposition won't let him have the run of the race and will do something to hustle him, not sure he'll have the versatility to cope with a race not run to suit.

 

10/1 Zelzal looks the bet of the season to me, he looked to have real potential going into the French Guineas last year winning his first two starts easily, he ran no race there but bounced back to win his next 2 easily, including a Group 1. Looked the best horse in the race on his last start when Vadamos stole the Moulin and was again given an impossible task on his comeback this season, held up and asked late against Taareef who went on to easily beat Guineas 3rd Al Wukair on his next run.

He just looks a class miler who is crying out for a proper gallop on fast ground and I can see him cantering all over them and exploding to be honest, neither Churchill or Ribchester have the gears to live with him.

Rouget is the top man just now and him bringing a horse like this over, 10/1 is glitch in the matrix in a 3 horse race.

 

The field for the Sussex could cut up massively I think, and you'd be surprised if Zelzal doesn't finish in the 3 out of those that go to post. His run in the French Guineas put me off for win purposes, but you're right that his trainer needs the upmost respect when he brings one over and that the race should be run to suit. Looks like an each way bet to something

 

not sure I agree with Goodwood's decision to put their main race (the Goodwood Cup) on the first day.
I think racecourses should just accept that if they want racing to take place on a Tuesday they have to expect lower crowds no matter what race they put on.

Royal Ascot still get their smallest crowd on the first day despite it being the best racing day of the week

 

Does seem unnecessary change. Read somewhere i'm sure that part of the thinking is to create a specific theme for each day - i.e. moving the Nassau to the Thursday as the main race is more in keeping with a ladies day theme. Think the Lillie Langtry is that day as well

 

Trouble is by moving the Nassau that weakens the Saturday (most popular day) card considerably.

 

Probably reckoning that the Saturday sells itself just by being a non work day. Probably right, am sure the Saturday will be close to a sell out regardless, probably the majority now only go to the races for the social aspect rather than the quality of the racing itself. Surprised TV companies didn't kick up a bit of a stink about it though.

 

Librisa Breeze backed into 5/6s now across the board, I assume weather forecast playing its part. 7f on softish ground will be lovely

 

Shows how much I know, Librisa Breeze now best price 4/1, 3s most places. Final decs later today and the main danger will be if Limato is declared. Two days of sun forecast before the off on Tuesday suggest to me that he will be, so may consider a saver if so.

I am also adding one more before those final declarations.

JAMES GARFIELD - Vintage Stakes - 12/1

This horse looks a bit of a monster to me. Clearly has the speed to run 5/6 furlongs at the top level, his form is reading well and he romped home last time in the style of a horse very much of the upgrade. The main reason I can't see him out of the 3 here is that everything in his breeding suggests he'll come on plenty again for the step up in trip. Same can be said I guess for the two market leaders (Seahenge and Headway), but was that taken visibly by all of his performances to date will have to have a little dabble at the 12/1, was expecting him to be half that price

 

Can't believe Limato hasn't won a race this season. If he runs he has an outstanding chance over 7f (his best distance). Librisa Breeze, like Limato has a good turn of foot and just needs the opening to win or be thereabouts. Can't see either out of the frame. For a rank outsider could do worse than Cougar Mountain

 

Librisa drawn 14 which isn't ideal, just hoping that the long straight gives Winston enough time to see the gaps and take him through them. I think Limato will run, won't be any kind of rain between now and the off, and they're saying the ground is good to soft currently

 

Is Winter certain to get 10f? She (for Coolmore) is another happy example of breeding their supersire to a sprinting mare (a la Churchill).

Winter's damsire is Choisir, so there's little comfort there. Her grandam didn't race so again no support and the best the unraced grandam's sire could do was win over 9f. The great granddam was high class but a sprinter. The best source of stamina in the distaff side is Riverman, but he seems a bit isolated.

So I'd reckon that in a fast run race that10f could be a stretch. Worth backing against I'd have thought.

 

Why do people keep banging on about these WFA allowances? They are there for a reason and not an unfair burden on the older horses, who are just that, older. Ribchester is carrying 8lbs more and that's because he's a year older.

There have been tinkerings with the WFA scale over the last 50 years but before that good old Admiral Rous's figures were untouched. The first I can recall was after the '75 KG when the Official Handicapper felt that Grundy and Bustino were of the same ability and that therefore the half-length Grundy won by should be taken into account therefore the WFA for that distance for 3yos was raised by 1lb. That movement was based on the assumption that the two horses were identical in ability: a big assumption I'd have thought.

I believe the 12f WFA has been changed again and another 1lb went to the 3yos. If that is correct, and it may be, then Bustino would have won the '75 KG. (He would have won it anyway if he had had his proper pacemaker).

I disagreed with Barney Roy going over 10f so soon and he should be in this race. But he's not and if it cuts up then Churchill may have the more sedate pace that suits him. If it is a fast pace then Ribchester may beat him, but I'd much rather have seen Barney Roy in the race.