King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - Ascot 29th July 2017

Nearly every race Highland Reel has won in his career was stealing off a slow gallop.

 

He regularly clocks decent times though Joe. He clearly prefers fastish ground so if "soft" is in the going description that would put me off a bit

 

Has he improved that much? Yes is the simple answer. From 2 to 3, 3 to 4, horses improve, especially when under the tutelage of Michael Stoute, who is experienced and renowned for improving racehorses between these ages over the years. If he runs in this race he beats Highland Reel in this race.

 

No one is doubting that Ulysees is a better horse now as a 4yo than he's ever been. But he was beaten as a 4yo in the POW Stakes, less than a month before winning the Eclipse when Highland Reel wasn't around. Yet we are supposed to buy that his narrow Eclipse victory was a huge improvement in form, and he's jumped about 10 pounds up the ratings in such a short space of time.

Im not a 'fan boy' of either horse, in the same way the likes of Eddie are, but it does not make any logical sense whatsoever to say Ulysees has now run to a higher level than Highland Reel. If anything Ulysees performance shows how good Highland Reel was to beat him.

The other thing that would really alarm me about the POW performance for Ulysees supporters, is that for a a good few strides Ulysees looked to be travelling better than Highland Reel, but when push really came to shove he didn't stay the trip as strongly as Highland Reel did, and the further they went the more Highland Reel asserted his authority. So the extra 2 furlongs in the King George are only going to further play into Highland Reels hands.

 

I think Ulysses (and Barney Roy) would have beaten Highland Reel had Highland Reel run in the eclipse. It wouldn't have needed to be huge improvement, only would have had to turn around a length or two. Stoute has brought this one along more softly softly than most, such is the esteem in which he holds him. He now has Ulysses operating at his peak and will try to make hay whilst he can. I agree that the 12f will be more of a challenge. Ulysses will definitely travel well throughout the race, but Highland Reel will likely go on from the 3 pole and challenge the others to pass him. Ulysses will have to sit on his tail and not let him get away, but Crowley will also have to deliver him as late as possible. If he gets into a toe to toe battle with Highland Reel as far as 2 out then I fear Highland Reel could outbattle him. Needs to cruise alongside and only hit the button late into the final furlong. Watch Idaho stay on and cruise past them all now

 

How Highland Reel would have done in the Eclipse we'll never know for certain. My point is more that you cannot rate that race as a higher level of form, as he beat an untested 3yo, and Decorated Knight who could have given a form line between the 2 races was badly interfered with. So for me it seems perfectly possible that Ulysees could have run to a similar level of form in both races.

Highland Reel may not have done well with the slow pace in the Eclipse, but then again had he run would they have allowed it to play out that way?

We'll see how it plays out, but for me if Ulysees is ever going to beat Highland then it certainly won't be over 12 furlongs. Ulysees is probably a faster horse, but Highland Reel definately has the better stamina. So Ulysees might have a chance if the pair meet over 5 furlongs

 

Why is it hard to believe that a horse could have improved massively after only 2 runs this season? Especially a 4yo with Stoute. We see evidence of this all over the sport, its rampant in the jumps with horses improving 50 pounds for a run, Mark Johnston horses do it all season running randomly stones up and down. AOBs are famous for doing it. Ulysses maybe lacked elite conditioning in the POW, as you say, he travelled like the best horse in the race but lacked at the business end. He didnt quicken and maintain it like he did in the Eclipse. You just have to look at Decorated Knight to see the difference in two horses from run to run. Decorated Knight went backwards and Ulysses went forward.

 

How can you use Decorated Knight as a yardstick????

 

First of all the POW stakes wasn't Ulysses first run of the season, he ran in the Brigadier Gerard which he won, so you can't say it was due to a lack of race fitness and being in need of a run.

Secondly, by using Decorated Knight as a yard stick, you are proving that you are unable to look at the form objectively where Ulysses is concerned.

 

im well aware it wasnt his first run, I never suggested that it was, in fact I actually said after 2 runs in the first sentence of my post so im not sure why you thought I wasnt aware of that, and being in need of a run doesnt mean needing exactly 1 run, it means your not 100%, you might need a couple of runs

and why exactly can we not use Decorated Knight? he had to snatch up and lost a length at a non crucial stage of the race when close to a slow pace, he never got set alight and had a perfect trip the rest of the way, he hampered COM a lot worse than he himself was hampered and even COM had no excuses imo

Decorated Knight finished right there with COM and Eminent as his rating suggested he should, none of the other horses in that race had a hope in hell against Barney Roy or Ulysses that day, both those horses ran to an elite Group 1 level that the others had never achieved, wouldnt be wise to use the incident early on as an excuse to cover for them not being good enough

 

Is there any such thing as a "non-crucial" stage in a 10f group one race................

 

Elite group 1 level??

I'd actually go as far as to say that Eclipse was up there with one of the weakest G1s run in the UK in recent years.

Barney Roy is the best of a very bad bunch of 3yo colts this season, let's not forget how he struggled past Lancaster Bomber at Ascot, a horse who's won 1 race in 9

Ulysses took advantage of a poor field, and even with the help of interference to 2 of the main contenders he just about held on in a photo.

I'd be amazed if Ulysses wins another G1 in the UK, best hope they've got of winning another G1 is send him over to compete in those low quality American turf races, like the Arlington Million or Breeders Cup.

 

Enable is blue across oddschecker, 2/1 best price.

 

Enable Arc backers must be sick, this is more her race than the Arc but I would have skipped the Irish oaks for it. Even if it looked easy, she ran to a high level there.

 

Its been rated as one of the best Eclipses in modern times and I agree, no plodder like Nathanial winning in the mud. Hawkbill is decent but id say these two are a bit better than that.

They slaughtered a bunch of near 120 horses by 4/5 lengths, it was a historic performance by both animals.

 

With 42 still left in the King George and the ground probably on the soft side at the moment, I think it will be best to wait until the five day declarations to see who drops out and then view the weather forecast to see who is going to get their ground at the weekend.

Of the entered right now, I would be most interested in Jack Hobbs if the ground does not dry out. Although Enable did little more than stretch her legs in the Irish Oaks, I still do not see her showing up on Saturday. The last time Gosden was going to run a superstar in the King George it rained on the Friday and he then took Golden Horn out of the race twenty minutes before racing started on the Saturday, thus guaranteeing that the crowd had shown up that the Ascot authorities wanted even though the horse they had come to see stayed away.

 

"Enable confirmed as likely to miss this to take on the fillies in the Yorkshire Oaks"
What's going on there then?

 

If there is, its early on when the pace is slow and the horses are just sorting themselves out. Different maybe if he was a front runner and it cost him the lead, but it didnt really cost him anything, Decorated Knight cruised into contention in the straight and just wasnt good enough, he had never ran to a Group 1 level and it doesnt look like he will now.

The only 2 Group 1 animals in the race were miles clear of the others, you could argue that 2 of them could have got a bit closer, there is no argument that any of those 2 would have actually been involved in the race.

 

Or you could ignore their runs as it's virtually impossible to know how much it affected them. You seem to be taking the view that Decorated Knight lost a length and that Cliffs Of Moher lost four lengths or something to that degree. Its quite possible both horses used up additional energy to regather their stride. It's utterly pointless evaluating using form horses that have been hampered.

I'm not arguing that they would have been involved in the finish but they can't be used the evaluated the quality of the race.

 

I don't think CLIFFS OF MOHER would have won but Doyle kept Moore in the pocket up the straight, he rode a blinder, but would never have been able to do that had COM not lost his good early position.