Premier League 2016/2017 Predictions

I never thought I'd hear myself saying this, but....in their defense, at this stage of the season pundits are as blind as the average armchair supporter. Lidl is correct: there are far too many variables up in the air for anyone - even the most astute footballing mind - to make an informed decision. Particularly this season with frantic transfer activity up and down the league and managerial changes not far behind. Sitting here thinking about my own predictions, I can understand why most pundits simply 'play it safe' and predict predictably; then at least if it all goes pear shaped (like last season), they can save face by saying 'well no-one saw that coming, not even Biff Tannen's almanac in Back to the Future knew Leicester were going to run away with it!'

This difference between us and pundits is that we can afford to make risky predictions (see Powerspurs' for an example) because we won't face an onslaught of Twitter abuse if we subsequently get them wrong. So we can afford to be more imaginative. If it doesn't work out, well - who cares? we're not pundits anyway. If it does work out - we're the greatest footballing genius alive. Win-win. Just like a real pundit

 

If they're as blind as the rest of us, then they shouldn't be pundits.
It's their job to know better than the average Joe.

I can't knock them for getting things like Leicester winning the league wrong, as that would be incredibly hard to predict.
A lot of them offer absolutely nothing to the vast majority of those that follow the game, though.
Gary Neville's notable because he says things that aren't completely bloody obvious. That shouldn't be unusual.

Merson's not really there for his insights into the game, as much as his jovial personality and humour, though.
You can't say the same applies to the likes of Charlie Nicholas or Tony Gale, unfortunately.

 

Top 6:
1. United
2. Spurs
3. Chelsea
4. Arsenal (The 4th law of thermodynamics states that if Arsenal don't finish in the top 4, the Universe reverts to raw energy)
5. City
6. Liverpool

Relegation:

18. Sunderland Hotspurs
19. Burnley
20. Hull Hotspurs

FA Cup:
Man City

League Cup:
Liverpool

Top Scorer:
Harry Kane - 26 goals

P.O.T.S:
Harry Kane

Y.P.O.T.S:
Marcus Rashford

Surprise team of the season:
Leicester (bubble will burst in a tragicomic epic)

Signing of the season:
Alex Manninger

Champions League:
Bayern Munich
Europa League:
A Spanish side
Manager of the season:
Jose Mourinho. They'll win the league and the media will collectively drown in saliva.

 

I've been right and the pundits have been wrong for a couple of years a row now. It's not because I'm smart. It's because they're stupid.

Predicting leagues reliably and accurately is beyond mortal powers. Not making the exact same mistake you've made five years in a row should not be. I don't have a crystal ball, but what I can do is look at this year and at previous years, and try to extrapolate.

Here's what I've got:
The keys for some time now have been quality + continuity. That favors Arsenal and Spurs, arguably Leicester and West Ham and perhaps Man City and Liverpool. Big spending and discontinuity have not gotten anyone anywhere. That would be Man U and Chelsea. Hey, maybe they go one two. But if they do, next year I'll take teams that spend big a lot more seriously.

 

Top 6:
Liverpool, City, United, Arsenal, Leicester, Chelsea
Relegation: Burnley, Hull, Sunderland
FA Cup: Liverpool
League Cup: Liverpool
Top Scorer: Benteke
P.O.T.S: Milner
Y.P.O.T.S: Emre Can
Surprise team of the season: Boro coming top 10
Signing of the season: Mane
Champions League: not liverpool
Europa League: Liverpool
Manager of the season: Klopp

This is next year after all

 

Top 6:
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool
Manchester City
Arsenal
Chelsea
Relegation:
Watford
Sunderland
Bournemouth
FA Cup:
Machester City
League Cup:
Manchester United
Top Scorer:
Zlatan Ibrahimovich
P.O.T.S:
Zlatan Ibrahimovich
Y.P.O.T.S:
Eric Dier
Surprise team of the season:
Swansea
Signing of the season:
Borja ( Not counting money bags)
Champions League:
Bayern Munich
Europa League:
Manchester United
Manager of the season:
Jose Mourinho ( again thanks to the money)

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37040156
Well the BBC "pundits" hath spoken.

It seems the Poool are rated as likely as Spurs as finishing in the top 4.
Unsurprisingly only one pundit thinks Leicester will finish in the top 4.

<discuss>

 

Top 6: Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, City, Liverpool.
Relegation: West Brom, Burnley, Hull.
FA Cup: Chelsea.
League Cup: Liverpool.
Top Scorer: Ibrahimovic.
P.O.T.S: Ibrahimovic.
Y.P.O.T.S: Dele Alli.
Surprise team of the season: Boro. Won't flirt with relegation.
Signing of the season: Kante.
Champions League: Barca.
Europa League: Man Utd.
Manager of the season: Mourinho.

 

So we're not predicting the first manager sacked this season?

 

I'm actually pleasantly surprised by how many of those luminaries predicted us to finish in the top 4. Standard bias with Jenas placing us in 2nd and Chrissy Waddle tipping us to win the league

Biggest surprise has to be how Lawro hasn't predicted his beloved Liverpool to achieve top 4, which is remarkable given that I think they dropped 7 points all season in his weekly predictions last year.

 

<sminky pinky meh-feh-feh feh-feh-feh>


"Biggest surprise has to be how Lawro hasn't predicted his beloved Liverpool to achieve top 4"

Stop the press !!! It is true.
Have Leicester and Spurs last season finally destroyed the Mouser in him ??

 

In the league as a whole? Garry Monk, followed by whoever takes over from Garry Monk.
Leeds are a bit of a joke at the moment, which I'm sure some people are finding very, very funny.
Ridiculous owner, though.

Premier League? Steve Bruce. No, wait...
Pulis is 2-1 favourite, which I find a little strange. Mazzarri and Guidolin I can understand.
Hughes might be worth a punt. I've seen a few uncomplimentary comments about him from Stoke fans.
Marc Wilson also had a pop at him for not training their defence, which isn't a good sign.

 

I'd go for Bruce. I think they'll struggle and seems their fans already aren't keen on him anyway. Could turn nasty in a hurry

 

Er...

 

Pardew has to be one of the favourites. Palace simply went off the rails in the last few months of last season. They went from challenging the top 6 to fighting relegation in a frighteningly short period of time - I don't think they managed a win in something like 12 games! I look at their team and there simply isn't enough quality anywhere on the pitch. If Bolasie leaves I reckon it could trigger a meltdown on and off the pitch. If they get off to a bad start they could really struggle to pick themselves up again.

 

That's the Circle of Pardew. It seems to happen to his teams quite frequently, for some reason.

Got West Ham promoted, then finished in the top-half and reached the FA Cup final. Sacked in December.
Bombed at Charlton, then made Southampton competitive, despite a points reduction.
Signed Ricky Lambert, won the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, then got sacked five months later.

Kept Newcastle up, signed some promising French players, qualified for Europe and won two Manager of the Year awards.
Reached a European quarter-final, then went on a streak where they lost 15 from 21. Barely kept his job.
Started the season well, got a Manager of the Month award, then left for Palace.

I've no idea why, but his teams seem to hit great patches of form and then plunge into horrible ones.
It might be down to something he's doing with his squads (No depth? Pissing off non-first XI players?), but I haven't looked into it enough to know.

 

I don't live in England, you can't expect me to keep up with the likes of Hull

 

Top 6:
Chelsea
Spurs
Man City
Man Utd
Arsenal
Leicester

Relegation:
Hull
Burnley
Watford

FA Cup:
Liverpool

League Cup:
Chelsea

Top Scorer:
Aquero

P.O.T.S:
Aquero

Y.P.O.T.S:
Rashford (assuming Mourinho gives him a game - if not get him to the lane in January).

Surprise team of the season:
Bournemouth (many pundits pick for relegation but will finish comfortably mid table)

Signing of the season:
Mane

Champions League:
Bayern

Europa League:
Arsenal (having been eliminated from the Champions league)

Manager of the season:
Conti.

 

Well, I"m not sure not predicting good things for Spurs has helped them, so let's see how predicting good things for them goes...

Top 6:
Spurs
Arsenal
Liverpool
Man City
West Ham
Man U

Relegation:
Borough
Burnley
Watford

FA Cup:
Liverpool

League Cup:
Man U

Top Scorer:
Kane

P.O.T.S:
Alli

Y.P.O.T.S:
Cook

Surprise team of the season:
Hull (they'll finish 15th).

Signing of the season:
Cook

Champions League:
Juve

Europa League:
Sevilla (going out on a limb there)

Manager of the season:
Klopp (in an injustice)

 

Top 6:
1st. Man Utd
2nd. Man City
3rd. WHU
4th. Arsenal
5th. Spurs
6th. Everton
Relegation:
18th. Sunderland
19th. WBA
20th. Hull
FA Cup:
Liverpool
League Cup:
WHU
Top Scorer:
Ageuro
P.O.T.S:
Ozil
Y.P.O.T.S:
Baston
Surprise team of the season:
Swansea
Signing of the season:
Baston
Champions League:
Real Madrid
Europa League:
Roma
Manager of the season:
Guidolin