Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2017

It was the fastest time run over two miles at Kyoto racecourse (3,200 metres). Watching the race video, one runner bolted off into a ten length lead (no idea if it was an intended pacemaker), the winner was up with the leaders of the pursuing pack and there was an even pace throughout. Had the race been run at Ascot, Chantilly or Newmarket on turf, the horse would have got nowhere near the time because none of those racecourses bear the unique characteristics of the Japanese track and the race would not have been run that way. The record time at Ascot, uphill from Swinley Bottom, is 3:20.54 for 3,270m (2m 45yds).

According to the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings 2016, the best Japanese horses were A Shin Hikari and Maurice, but as they put up their best performances of the year in France and Hong Kong respectively, I guess they did not get many votes. The joint top Japanese racehorse performances on home soil were Kitasan Black and Satono Crown, both four pounds inferior to the aforementioned duo. But of course, you refuse to recognise ratings contrived by professional handicappers unless they agree entirely with your opinion, even if all the handicappers get together and peer review their calculations.

Given that no Japanese trainer has ever won the Arc, how is the trainer of Satono Diamond “a trainer who knows exactly what it takes”? Yasutoshi Ikee trained Orfevre, a Japanese Triple Crown winner, to win the Prix Foy twice in small fields but not the Arc. The last horse to achieve the Prix Foy/Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe double was Sagace in 1984. In 1999, Japanese horse El Condor Pasa won the Prix Foy and finished second in the Arc, a feat mirrored twice by Orfevre.

Orfevre certainly threw away an Arc victory, being beaten by an inferior opponent; and the following year he was beaten by a better horse.

On the current World Racehorse Rankings, Satono Diamond is rated 120, the same mark as Order of St George (over three lengths third last year); and behind Ulysses, Kitasan Black, Satono Crown, Enable, Brametot, Jack Hobbs and Highland Reel.

I am sure that a few people will have bookmarked your pronouncement that Japan will win this year and will be forming an orderly queue to remind you on 1st October if the winner is not Japanese. Naturally we will not hear the last of it if the Japanese win and your avatar will have changed minutes later...

 

A Shin Hikaris rating was a complete joke though, dont think anyone would deny that apart from the mugs who backed him at Ascot on the back of it maybe, I remember they were calling him the worlds best horse before that race

Kitasan Black was named horse of the year, Maurice was second, and Satono Diamond was third.

Satono Diamond was named champion 3yo in that category.

 

I've been out for a while. Who's move is it?

 

The way that the two French colts failed so miserably at Deauville despite running against inferior opposition with race conditions very much in their favour, it is no surprise that the Arc betting has been drastically rearranged and looks incredibly lop-sided:

6/4 Enable
12/1 Satono Diamond
16/1 Eminent, Winter, Highland Reel, Kitasan Black, Minding
20/1 Brametot, Almanzor, Ulysses, Zarak, Barney Roy, Cliffs Of Moher, Waldgeist, Al Wukair, Makahiki, Jameka
25/1 Capri, Savoir Vivre, Satono Crown, Vivlos

There are some proper mugs bets available there – I have left out 25/1 Permian because I do not see him being resurrected – but Minding is a no-show and are they really going to go that far with Barney Roy or Al Wukair?

After the Ebor Meeting next week, the Arc market may be effectively cast in stone if Enable wins the Yorkshire Oaks easily and the Juddmonte International produces another muddling result amongst the boys of any generation. It is not inconceivable that the Oaks winner will be a shade of odds on with the British bookies as Almanzor is the only middle distance horse with a rating anywhere near to hers and he ran 20lb short of that behind a Group 3 horse.

With the Irish Champion likely to be contested by the same horses as go to York – plus possibly Almanzor or Brametot –and the St Leger looking like the only other prep-races other than Arc Trials day, maybe I will see an Arc contender at Chantilly on 10th September.

 

Brametot never looked a 1m4 horse and Almanzor, who is unproven at the trip, has never looked likely to get there 100% this season. I already had lines through both of them but im surprised they are still giving you 12/1 Satono Diamond after today, ill be astounded if he is out of the 3 this year and I think the filly will be over the top and beatable on the day.

 

This was a wonderful win by Kitasan Black in the two mile Tenno Sho. He had to do all the bullocking behind the run away leader. Love the fervour of the crowd.

 

Good day to you, Cyc! You know, you often get extreme fervour at the horse races. Horseracing in Bangkok, for example, takes place at just two tracks, RBSC and the RTC. Used to alternate between these two every Sunday, probably still does. Horses are home-grown, most races are over 6f, and each race is greeted with the most astounding roar from the always capacity crowds. Why? Because it's the only legal way the locals can have a bet. It is surely a psychological relief for the thousands there who enjoy parting with their cash by gambling? Absolutely no problems in this respect downunder and in most parts of the northern hemisphere. Cynical or not, I don't care, but that's the way I see it.

Now off for final shot in a course of Vitamin B12 (it appeared I was running on empty). Would have been boring but for my Doc's very nice assistant. B12 doesn't help finding winners, unfortunately.

 

DK had already posted that video clip of “2 mile world champion” Kitasan Black (here). Being the 2 mile world champion, he should be favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle as the Arc is half a mile shorter and in France not Japan.

Being the undisputed world’s greatest judge on horseracing, DK has already determined that Enable will be over the top in 45 days time. She has had a really hard season, running a massive five times, struggling to hard-fought victories on four occasions; and he is hoping that she has another slog in the Yorkshire Oaks en route to Chantilly.

He is so confident about the Japanese runner that it is now “astounded if he is out of the 3” rather than this being Japan’s year as it was a month ago. Definite sounds of backpeddling there... on all known form, the Oaks winner is the best middle distance horse in Europe and at least 5lb better than any Japanese horse. Of course on October 1st, she could get drawn out in the forest, which would make life more difficult... but so could the Japanese.

 

Even the 8/1 is looking good. But 20/1 - some bookies were just clueless. But I knew

 

Was a very good pick in fairness Ron, win or lose. Hope she gets there in one piece.

 

Almanzor won't be running - he's been retired
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/connections-decide-to-shelve-arc-bid-following-setbacks/297670

 

CRACKSMAN has been cut to 8/1 second fav, despite no guarantee he'll run.

 

There does not seem like much prospect of the Arc betting changing very much after the Yorkshire Oaks, as Enable has five lengths in hand of her rivals on the book, so only a flop will see any change in her odds. The two big races on the first day of the Ebor meeting saw a few price changes in a few markets.

I am not sure why Ulysses is 7/2 for the Irish Champion Stakes given that connections stated he would probably now go straight to the Breeders’ Cup Turf; and Churchill is now favourite for the Irish Champion.

Cracksman disappeared from the St Leger betting after John Gosden confirmed that he would not be going there. Curiously he is now second favourite for the Arc despite Gosden’s reluctance to suggest that the horse will even run again this term:

5/4 Enable (odds on in several lists)
10/1 Cracksman
12/1 Satono Diamond, Ulysses
16/1 Eminent, Brametot, Kitasan Black, Highland Reel, Winter
20/1 Zarak, Waldgeist, Al Wukair, Makahiki, Jameka
25/1 Order Of St George, Barney Roy, Capri, Savoir Vivre, Satono Crown, Vivlos

Almanzor and Minding have disappeared from lists but still a few mug bets in there...

 

Entries for Arc day are now available, though obviously supplementary entries can be made for the big one.

This link takes you to the Arc itself, but if you click on the row of numbers in the top right hand corner it will take you to the other races on the card.

http://www.france-galop.com/fr/course/detail/2017/P/aVluMkQ4cXNQS3JEanlXR04vR2Rkdz09

 

After seeing Princess's news on Cracksman, I can see Enable starting at 2/5 for the Arc

 

STRAIGHT SHOOTER is an interesting one if you fancy an ante post bet at big odds. A highly thought of Maiden winner, he's being pitched in a G3 on 16 Sept as an Arc prep run. Currently 66/1 he'll shorten considerably if he wins on 16th as expected.

 

Doubt she'll go off that short, it's the Arc after all. I always think the Arc is a tough race to win, and the bookmakers and punters know this. I reckon she'll go off around 4/6 or maybe 8/11.

There have been plenty of superstar horses over the last 20 years who have gone for the Arc, and none have been that short. It's just not a race you'd want to be lumping on a long odds on favourite.

 

That 10/1 wont last much longer lads, 12s gone.

 

No backpeddling, it was a hint to the e/w filth about a 12/1 shot that I dont think will be out of the places. Enable is a top filly and at her King George best she would be very difficult for any horse to give 10lb and a beating to. I think she may be over the top in this but I might be wrong and she might produce another top performance.

This isnt one I would bet my life on, its not New Approach in the Derby, its not Treve in the Arc, but I think its a good bet, a top class horse whos been aimed at the race for 2 years and is double figures.

If he doesnt win comfy enough on Sunday then forget about it, if he does then the dream is alive.

 

EMINENT now unlikely for the Arc unless he wins well on Saturday in Ireland.