Of course as a relegated PL team, us supporters have more right to expect we have a greater chance of promotion than say a team that has got promoted from league 1. To suggest anything else is just plain stupid and defies common sense.
A lot of has to do with confidence rather than hard cash, especially when we are not renowned for being a big spender. When we got promoted to the Championship in 2010 we rode the positive wave that had happened during our one season tenure in League One. The confidence of that season flowed into our play in the Championship and we won promotion to the Premier League despite our finances being in a right Rudolf and having no "parachute payments" to fall back on. This season our confidence might have been high at the start of the season, possibly borne out of the "divine right" that some players had in their ability to play at Premier League standard but very soon the hustle and bustle of the Championship took it's toll and we all saw what happened to the confidence in November and December. The team has shown much more fight, passion and confidence since the turn of the year and it is hoped (desperately hoped) that they can take this forward for the rest of the season and get into the Play-Offs.
My thoughts exactly and I'm quietly confident that we will have an 'extended season' and hope we do make it to Wembley again!!!!!
Nothing wrong with being quietly confident, the problem is that some think it's a divine right. That's not right even for Newcastle!
this is turning into a great thread! It has been pointed out elsewhere that if it's a harder league, then probably more matches are drawn, making a lower points tally ... so not necessarily having more points means it's better. Anyway it's going to be a great finale this year (only 15 or 16 games left!) - I feel it in my bones!
Dave, I have removed your post. Please be careful what you post in future. If you want to discuss it more, then please pm me or one of the other supermods.
So, to get this back on track There are plenty there who one could back, All much of a par when looking from afar And more than can fill a six-pack.
Nobody disputes that, my friend, but the point in dispute is whether we have the right to expect promotion or even have a greater right to expect promotion over Newcastle, Brighton , Leeds, Villa etc etc or whether we are doing as well as can be expected by being in the hunt for promotion. .
I agree that confidence is at the heart of performance in football, but among fans it often shifts further into 'expectation'. There was some hesitation at the start about the effect relegation would have on player confidence. Newcastle fans clearly expected to walk the league and suffered a sharp correction when they struggled in the early games. Our fans, while pleasantly surprised by our start to the season which eventually took us to the top of the table, also saw reasons for concern about the way we conceded late goals even while winning narrowly. Then came Newcastle, where a 2-3 lead suddenly evaporated into a 4-3 defeat. This was followed by solid wins over Wolves and Rotherham, but at Fulham, a 2-0 lead turned into a 2-2 draw and concern deepened. A home loss to Preston on a rare breakaway goal was then followed by a 5-0 thrashing at Brighton. Three defeats followed before a 5-0 thrashing of Brentford raised spirits. Bizarre red cards didn't help and a solid win over Villa was followed by two defeats. A tougher attitude appeared in the end of year match at Brentford where we went away dissatisfied by an away draw in spite of Brady's sending off. The turning point came in the 3-0 dominant win over Derby. An unnecessary red card and loss at Rotherham dampened spirits, but then we went on a 5 match unbeaten run taking 13 points out of 15. Newcastle tomorrow will be a real test of this new confidence but the players do seem to have the bit between their teeth now. With 15 games left, however, there is now little margin for error.
I disagree we got relagated because we were rubbish a team that gets promoted has played well because we were in a higher league does not make us better... yes we were better to get there but we didnt stay there so how can you say how good we actually were in comparison???
Latest projections of final table, if form shown so far this season overall is kept up: Newcastle 98 Brighton 96 -------------------------------------------- Huddersfield 91 Reading 86 Leeds Utd 82 Sheff Wed 82 ------------------------------------------- Norwich 73 But of course, this just goes on whole of season form, and is not rewarding teams currently on great runs like Huddersfield and Norwich. So it’s still all to play for!
Well said Tricky. When we were promoted to the PL the considered opinion outside Norfolk was that we were likely to be relegated and in the end we were. Expectations then were that we'd be one of the stronger teams in the Championship and we rose to the top of the league after 12 games before hitting a bad run before Christmas. Since then we've lost only once in 9 games and accumulated 18 points. If we can take around 2 points a game for our last 14 games we should end up around 80 points with a reasonable chance of a play-off place, which for me was the minimum target for this season.
To maintain the 2 points a game ratio that Rick thinks we will produce winning AWAY to Burton would have to be a victory. If we don't win then our away form is well and truly ****ed. I don't care how much they need the points.
The 2 points a game is an average, so at least 4 points from Burton away and Ipswich at home would maintain that 2 point a game average.
So the 1 point against Newcastle didn't count ? You can't keep kicking the can down the road for all the dropped points. At this stage Burton and Ipswich should be 6 points or we will surely fall even further behind. At your 2 points ratio we will need to win back to back or win draw constantly.
That would work but the starting point of points accumulation is very subjective. For arguments sake let's reset the clock and begin the tally now. We are minus 5 (five) behind Sheffield Wednesday. There are 14 (fourteen) games left so a possible 42 (forty two) points to play for with a minimum of 28 (twenty eight) points yield for a realistic top 6 (six) finish.
Well no, DD. It's a question of mathematics. From the last 9 games we've taken 18 points, which is averaging 2 points per game. We now have 14 games left, from which we need 28 points or more by my reckoning. If we draw at Burton we'll fall behind by 1 point, so we'd need 3 points against Ipswich to get the average back to 2 points a game. Thus we need a win and a at least a draw in those two games to maintain 2 points per game overall. The previous 9 games just show that a 2 points per game average is a reasonable target. It's what happens in our remaining 14 games that matters most. Your second post responding to Dave is correct. Given that Reading have the toughest remaining fixtures (see the Promotion Race thread), I think they are our most likely target, especially as we play them at CR. Leeds are next, then SW.