The Promotion Race (Updated after Ipswich)

LATEST UPDATE:
The next two fixtures:

1 Newcastle(30-65): Norwich (a), Villa (h)
2 Brighton(30-64): Ipswich (h), Barnsley (a)
3 Huddersfield(30-58): Rotherham (a), Reading (h)
4 Reading(31-57): Brentford (h), Huddersfield (a)
5 Leeds(31-54): Bristol City (h), Ipswich (a)
6 Sheff Wed(30-52): Blackburn (h), Forest (a)
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7 Norwich(31-50): Newcastle (h), Burton (a)
8 Derby(30-47): Cardiff (h), Burton (h)
9 Barnsley(31-46): Villa (a), Brighton (h)
10 Fulham(30-46): Forest (h), Brentford (a)

After the win against Forest we need at least a point against Newcastle and then hope others slip up. Ours is the only top 10 head to head on Tuesday, but Huddersfield - Reading and Barnsley - Brighton both feature on Saturday.

With Leeds losing to Cardiff yesterday, our chances of catching them have improved greatly and Reading and Barnsley drawing helped as well. We also have a better goal difference than any of the teams around us except Fulham.

 

I must say I am finding this the most bizarre and puzzling season. We were coasting seemingly until half time at Craven Cottage, then went into the mother of all slumps before coming out of it again and returning to the best form of the season post Wolves. What happened?

 

In 45 years of supporting City, I can never remember anything like it, CT. We had 12 games during which we reached the top of the table, then 10 games where we lost 8 and won 2, followed by 8 games where we won 5, drew 2 and lost 1 (only after a stupid red card). It's quite bizarre.

 

Seems a bit strange to play the 'stupid red card' card at every opportunity?
It happens to all teams over a season, as do poor referee calls, injuries, etc, so to refer to it often and make it sound like the decision by which our season sinks or swims is a a shade bizarre?
Can't blame that for the abject form between October and December.
<justsaying>

 

I only referred to one red card, Cromer, and a totally unnecessary one IMO. If Olivera had kept his cool, I think we'd have won against Rotherham and been in the top six after ten games unbeaten. That result has been thrown back at AN and the club time and time again, yourself included. A rash tackle happens and I can accept that, and Olivera apologised for his mistake, which is fine, but it still was an unnecessary red card and loss of points, IMO.

 

Dare I say it but the Binmen could do us a favour by beating Feeds on Saturday.

Not sure I should be even thinking stuff like that but it did enter my head for a nano second.

 

Updated form table and Huddersfield have been getting scrappy wins by the odd goal, as can be seen by their GD -

Leeds seem to have hit a poor run of form and let's hope it stays that way

 

If we beat Newcastle we'll go to the top of the form table whatever others do. A big 'if', I know, but just saying.

 

LATEST UPDATE:
The next two fixtures:

1 Newcastle(31-66): Villa (h), Bristol City (h)
2 Brighton(31-65): Barnsley (a), Reading (h)
3 Huddersfield(31-61): Reading (h), Barnsley (a)
4 Reading(32-60): Huddersfield (a), Brighton (a)
5 Leeds(32-57): Ipswich (a), Sheffield Weds. (a)
6 Sheff Wed(31-55): Forest (a), Brentford (h - Tues), Leeds (h)
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7 Norwich(32-51): Burton (a), Ipswich (h)
8 Fulham(31-49): Brentford (a), Cardiff (a)
9 Barnsley(32-49): Brighton (h), Huddersfield (h)
10 Preston (32-48): Wigan (a), QPR (h)
11 Derby(31-47): Bristol City (a), Burton (h - Tues), Villa (a)

After the draw against Newcastle we need a win against Burton and then hope others slip up. That looks possible with 2 top 10 head to heads coming up and 3 more in the week following so the schedule favours us for a change. Something has to give with Huddersfield vs. Reading and hopefully Brighton will beat Barnsley. Reading, Leeds, Fulham and Derby all have two away matches.

 

Looking at fixtures for pos. 3-7 and who each team plays in the top 7, Huddersfield have the easiest remaining schedule as they play: Reading, New Castle, and us - all at home.

Reading have the most difficult: @Hud, @B&HA, vs New Castle, @Wed, vs Leeds, @NCFC.

Sheff Wed: @LEEDS, vs NCFC, vs Reading, vs New Castle.

Leeds play: vs Wed, vs B&HA, @Reading, @new Castle, vs NCFC.

We play: @Wed, @Huddersfield, vs Reading, vs B&HA, @LEEDS.

Wednesday and Huddersfield both have a game in hand on us.

If we can get healthy and keep our form, and somehow get three points at Leeds, we can catch them. If Reading fall against tough opposition, I can see us catching them, too. Sheffield, IMO, are safe.

 

Thanks for that CS. I started trying to do it last night, but go bogged down somewhere and yes, I saw that Reading have a couple of tough games coming up as do Leeds, so I'm still confident we can sneak into the play-offs and have another day out at Wembley (unless we end up playing Huddersfield in the play-offs)!!

Edit - We are going to have to win on Saturday, otherwise our hopes of making it into the top six will go for a Burton!!
<getscoatemoticon>

 

Yeah, JM, but Huddersfield are knocking on the door for for the automatics especially with Newcastle playing three away games in a row against Brighton, Huddersfield, and Reading. (who made up the schedule?) It's going to be an exciting end to the season. Don't know who I'd rather play first in the playoffs, we'll have to shoot for 5th place!

 

I wouldn't say we are that likely to keep dropping points. Its a simple thing for us, If Pontus plays we tend to win, if he doesn't we tend to lose. You'll notice those defeats are when he didn't play. Hopefully he doesn't get suspended again (is on 13 yellows already).

I honestly think Reading are the worst team in the top 7 and I've been amazed they haven't dropped out of the play-off positions before now.

 

Yes CS, I think Huddersfield could easily make the autos, but their GD may be their undoing. I agree that the next few weeks is going to be very interesting with all of the top teams playing each other.
Bring it on!!!!

 

Good job picking out those matches CS. I tend to feel that the current top 3 are out of our reach now, but that Reading, Leeds and SW are all still possible, in that order. Reading do have the toughest schedule and we play them at home which makes overtaking them our best bet. The key lies in at least maintaining our current form of 2 points per game over the last 14 matches. The other factors are injuries, suspensions and fatigue in this grueling 46 match season.

 

Thanks, Rick. I would fancy our chances if not for all the freaking injuries. Especially Pinto and Oliveira. We could use the experience and fighting spirit of Naismith and Mulumbu for the last 14 games.

 

Would love to see Maddison given some time on the pitch tomorrow.
Not expecting it to happen, though.

 

I feel IF we're winning comfortably with about 15 minutes to go he might replace Hoolihan.
OOPS, just read what I've written - NAH, never going to happen!!!

 

Yes, I wrote that before I saw the injury list from the Press Conference, CS. It seems that Pinto, Naismith and Mulumbu could be possibles for next week but we're certainly testing the limits of our large squad at the moment.

As for JM, he could well be on the bench tomorrow with Pritchard starting, as Wes was certainly wacked when he came off mid-week. It could happen JMF.

 

I've just noticed that SW play their 'game in hand' against Brentford on Tuesday and Derby play theirs against Burton then as well. SW then play Leeds and Derby play Villa on Saturday, so I've now added those fixtures to the table above. Also, Preston have now pushed above Derby into 10th, so I've added them to the table as well.