This is an index to Timeform's Sectional Debriefs. Sectional Debrief Special: Rowleyfile Investigates Jockey efficiency and sectionals Sectional Debrief Special: AW Finals Day 3rd April 2015 Sectional Debrief Special: The festive jumps action 2nd January 2015 Sectional Debrief Special: Cheltenham, Saturday 13th December 2014 Sectional Debrief: Lingfield, Wednesday 10th December 2014 Sectional Debrief: Lingfield, Monday 8th December 2014 Sectional Debrief Special: Sandown, Saturday 6th December 2014 Timeform Corner
Sectional Debrief Special: Newbury Friday 17 and Saturday 18 April please log in to view this image Share this article By Simon Rowlands -- published 19th April 2015 Simon Rowlands analyses the sectionals from Newbury and reveals a good ante-post bet. Two days of fascinating and, at times, exhilarating racing at Newbury reminded us all of what is so good about Flat racing. However, it now almost goes without saying (so, in future, I won’t be saying it) that British racing provided no electronic sectional timing to accompany the otherwise top-notch action. What follows was manually derived from analysis of videos. Newbury is usually one of the worst tracks in the country for establishing sectionals by hand. It has a wide straight and camerawork seldom allows for accurate times for the leaders, let alone for the pursuing horses. But a strip across the course just after the three-furlong pole meant race sectionals could be taken at that point – which is what will appear in due course as part of an enhanced Race Passes service – and consistent side-on coverage at the four-furlong pole meant that individual sectionals could be established there, for all that that is further from the finish than ideal. The “race” sectionals for leader at the sectional and leader (that is, winner) at the line for the two days reflect quick, and quickening, conditions, which involved a fairly strong tailwind. please log in to view this image Using a four-furlong sectional effectively rules out meaningful figures for the two five-furlong races on the Friday, but Robot Boy broke the track record and Harvard Man posted a decidedly useful overall time for a two-year-old in holding the late surge of Ring of Truth by a short head. There were at least two highly promising efforts in defeat in other races, which both sectionals and “visuals” are unlikely to have missed. Conditions may have been even quicker on the Saturday, and even the races that involved running into the wind for a significant portion produced quicker-than-good times. Firm going is nothing to be frightened of when the surface is otherwise safe. Circumstances were set up for another course record in a notably strong-looking Greenham Stakes, but a course record by the best part of a second suggests the first two in that race went beyond expectations even so. The individual sectionals for the three Group 3s make for interesting comparisons. please log in to view this image That Greenham Stakes was truly-run, but not overly-strongly-run by the look of it (those finishing speeds are all close to par). Runner-up Estidhkaar helped set the pace and came back for more when Muhaarar went past him. The pair finished clear of the very smart Ivawood and some other useful rivals. In terms of overall times combined with sectionals, Muhaarar looks to have put up an exceptional performance, though suggestions are that he will be diverted to the French version of the 2000 Guineas to make best use of his undoubted speed. In his absence, Estidhkaar (a noteworthy performer on sectionals as a juvenile) looks a seriously good 2000 Guineas candidate: a rating of 126 is about the same as an average Guineas winner and is easily good enough to place in that race. A double-figure price ante-post is simply too big. The fillies’ trial paled in comparison but may still have a bearing on what takes place at Newmarket in a couple of weeks’ time. The Fred Darling was less truly-run than the Greenham, but sectional upgrades have Redstart and Jellicle Ball not far behind what it usually takes to place in the 1000 Guineas. The less-experienced Jellicle Ball, who had put up an outstanding sectional when winning at Kempton on her only start as a two year-old, emerges best, if not by much, having raced a bit further back than Redstart. She still looks to have quite a bright future, whether it is at a mile or still further. Arab Spring outperformed most of his stablemates recently in winning first time up, though that might not have been especially difficult in the John Porter by Group 3 standards, and the steady early pace probably played to his strengths. He looks likely to be at least as good at a mile and a quarter as this mile and a half, and the speed he showed in the home straight was too much for his rivals, some of whom were coming back at the finish. His trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, excels with this type of horse, and Arab Spring should be up to winning in Group 2 company, if not necessarily among the crème de la crème. please log in to view this image
Thanks Ron, some interesting stuff there. Both good trials I'd thought and breaking the course record was impressive in the Greenham. Surprised he's not going to Newmarket. One would presume Hanagan knew the pecking order of Hamdan's milers but he got it slightly wrong there.
Corals the only one still offering 16/1 Estidhkaar. As low as 6/1 in 2 places. Grab the 16's before it goes and maybe lay off
Sectional Debrief: Craven And Greenham Meetings It seems the stopwatch anoraks at Timeform were more impressed with the colts than with John Gosden’s two fillies in the trials. Good news for fans of Fair Eva as she remains the owner of the fastest timefigure going into the 1000 Guineas but anything could happen on the day depending on how the race is run. It is not inconceivable that Frankel could do a Classic double in a couple of weeks’ time if the stopwatch is your favoured measure of ability.
It is my understanding that, broadly, the Upgrade is the difference between the ‘par’ finishing speed percentage and the ‘actual’ finishing speed percentage. Timeform keep a record of all finishing speeds over all distances at all tracks in all conditions, from which they formulate the ‘par’ values. Unfortunately in the article they do not state all the numbers necessary to do the calculations ourselves. This equation is used where ‘O’ is the Optimum finishing speed, ‘A’ is the Actual finishing speed, ‘d’ is the sectional distance and ‘D’ is the overall distance: 1.5x(O-A)x(O-A)x((d/D)^1.4) In Simon Rowlands’ article on the subject, he explains how in the 2000 Guineas of 2002, winner Rock Of Gibraltar saw his timefigure of 112 upgraded to 117 whilst the runner-up Hawk Wing saw his timefigure of 112 upgraded to 122. The vanquished favourite lost the race early on with the ground that he gave away and the clock says he was the better horse by a couple of lengths. What a shame that the electronic sectional timings were not available for the 2000 Guineas of 2011...
Thanks QM. I won't pretend to have understood that formula but, if I have understood correctly, the principle, without qualification, sounds a bit dodgy . The way I have understood it is that if 2 horses finish in the same time they get the same time figure but if one finishes faster than the other it can receive an upgrade indicating it is the better horse. But that doesn't necessarily follow since the fast finisher may not have been able to keep up early on and the slower finisher could have tired or been eased. Presumably they take into account the circumstances as to why the fast finisher needed to make up the ground in the final section (eg trapped on rail, slowly away etc) before upgrading the fast finisher
The bloody Citadel of Deceit. The more complicated it becomes, the easier it is to brainwash the great unwashed.
I would give you the link to the PDF that I downloaded but it does not seem to work from my laptop... however, if you go back to post #3 on this thread and click the FREE DOWNLOAD link at the bottom and it lets you download it, the relevant sections start at page 43 and page 46. That equation is the result of work by an academic called Bob Wilkins, who wrote a book on the subject, and presumably is subject to tweaking periodically as more data becomes available to modify the constants that it contains; however, there is a certain amount of logic to it. When Kingman won the St James’s Palace in 2014, the slow early pace saw him rocket home and get upgraded 24lb to 129 – finishing quicker than sprinter Sole Power did earlier in the King’s Stand. With regard to horses not being able to keep up, they cite the example of the 2010 Irish Champion Stakes, when Cape Blanco ran all of his rivals (including odds-on stablemate Rip Van Winkle) into the ground – he was fast early and burned them all off but slowed at the end, so his late sectionals were pretty poor but he still won the race.
