Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 17th. April 2019

Wednesday's Meetings

Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m.
Cheltenham
N/H 7 Races 2:05-5:30p.m.
Beverley
Flat 8 Races 2:15-6:10p.m.
Dundalk(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:45-8:45p.m.
Southwell(E)
A/W 6 Races 6:00-8:30p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Old barney rubble was asking the other day . Why would you have a bet at both hqs this week. Two of them go tomorrow . Jenkins is a massive price in the 3.15 but Thomas Campbell looks the bet of the day in the 4.25 with the talented Conor brace up top taking off 7lb I do also like the locally trained reve down the bottom.

 

BREATH OF AIR 1.50 Nkt, the proverbial listed class horse in a handicap
ALLELU ALLELUIA 5.00 Chelt, Jonjo targets this race with horses of this type and has the lad on board

 

In the first at Cheltenham tomorrow Buzz de Turcoing runs. First run under rules and is under the same ownership as our fella Top Decision. Didn't get involved myself but I really hope he runs well tomorrow although he will do well to finish top 4. Thrown in at the dèep end but he s quite highly regarded. He s a gorgeous horse and pretty imposing too. I really liked him when I saw him at the yard.

 

Thomas Campbell is a rogue, will take all of Connors talent to get him to win! If it all clicks he’s amazingly handicapped

 

Richard Hughes top breeze was the one I’m interested in if they can turn the aw form onto grass he’s fit.

 

That’s what I thought and the jockey is talented.

 

Its probably ridiculous but more often than not I dont value AW form when horses are going into competitive turf events. The standard on the AW is much higher these days but I still always view it with some suspicion.

 

Quickly change the subject. That Ronald is something else.

 

I know what you’re saying. I was thinking just today what ground would benefit aw runners?

 

You would have to ask Nass but the answer I believe is different for each of the surfaces.

 

I’m so excited about the next couple of days because I couldn’t go to the festival. My plan is 4 or 5 winners at Cheltenham a couple at Newmarket and spurs to beat city tomorrow evening.

 

Lets hope you do well on the horses

 

Red hot chilli for me in the 5.30 with Conor taking off 7 rev f/cast with yours.

 

The force is strong in you... or something like that

 

The Craven Stakes used to be a big guide to the Guineas but the winners lately have not gone on to success in the Classic. Richard Hannon had been dominating the trial but this time up his Watan can be backed at 14/1.

The media vibe is strongly for Zakouski, with tips all over the shop for him and just a little hype as well. He is very skinny for the Guineas itself and the press seem keen to latch onto him in a bid for a bit of "We told you" should he win tomorrow. The trouble is that the media seem to be oblivious to the fact that all the money seems to be for fellow Godolphin horse Royal Marine while Zakouski is on the drift.

Zakouski is far from typical in that he did not see a racecourse until late November and he debuted in a class 5 Novice on the Kempton all-weather. Although winning impressively it was a poor field in the main and the runner up Headman took a thumping when they could not give him away in the betting beforehand. That gives Zakouski's form a ropey look and he's surely a poor value bet for the 2000 Guineas as a once-raced horse rated 90 on RPR for now and very short on experience. 8/1 for the Classic looks appalling to me.

Royal Marine has been backed in to a best price of 15/8 for the Craven, having been 3/1 at one stage, he has also been better backed in the Guineas betting, suggesting he MAY be the Godolphin number 1 for the classic. Royal Marine was last seen stinking the place out at Meydan in January, in an awful race where he was odds on but thrashed 16 lengths. That can be ignored though, because Masar did exactly the same last year, running to 22 on RPR before landing the Craven and later the Derby. Royal Marine had his breakthrough win when landing the Group 1 Lagardere in France. Runner up Broome and Shaman have won from that race, although Boitron was a bit disappointing in the Greenham.

Overall I don't think Royal Marine is the best contender Godolphin have had coming to this race and it may be more of an indication of lack of confidence in Zakouski than pure faith that Royal Marine is the real deal that is driving the money in the market.

So what of the others?

It is an open secret that Skardu has been in loads of lists of dark horses for this season. He made an excellent start to his career when unfancied on the day and winners have come from the race but he has a lot to prove for now and the form of his race is limited in class. I can't have him myself and William Haggas is a trainer I avoid in the better races, as he seems more at home mopping up three grand maidens with horses who cost quarter of a million quid.

Set Piece is 2 for 2 for Hugo Palmer but those were weak races and for me he is well out of his depth here.

Global Spectrum is 2/2 for Ms Kellaway but I was astonished to see him noted as a French Guineas contender in the press. For me he looks well short of that aspiration.

Confiding was well regarded by Martyn Meade but to me the trainer is the new Clive Brittain and the colt did not build on a promising start last year.

Although the Timeform blurb is confident that Zakouski can leap forward and become a star, I am far less convinced and I reckon Royal Marine is too short here. I felt the best play was a low stakes punt on Hannon's Watan. The son of Toronado was well regarded early on and had decent form when runner up in the Group 3 Acomb stakes at York. The winner Phoenix Of Spain would later run second in the Group 1 Futurity. Watan could not cope behind Too Darn Hot but there was no shame there and he later won a minor race at Leicester. His sire Toronado won the Craven back in the day and it is hoped that Watan can improve as a 3YO and perhaos shake up a few of the sexier, lightly raced sorts here. I feel he's underestimated on 14/1 and would rather lose a fiver on him than throw £40 at one of the Godolphin two. His official rating of 105 warrants a little more respect than he's getting.

3.35 Newmarket Watan 14/1

 

Been looking at the videos all evening.liked this horse last season but seemed to get beat, but in top company. Step up in trip should suit. Was beginning to have doubts but having read your great write up I’m convinced.

 

It's by no means a confident pick, just that others seem very short having done less. Richard Hannon feels his leading colts have done well physically and stated that they will find out how good they are in the trials. He made the remark that they could be 110 horses but that you need a 120 horse to win a 2000 Guineas.

 

UAE JEWEL. 2.25 Newmarket

I've been told that it's been pissing on everything on the gallops. From the shareholder who had Australis running on Monday. I don't like backing favourites but I'll be watching with interest.

 

Morning

Two Each Way bets with Bet 365 on the ITV races at Newmarket

3.00-Yafta @ 13-2
3.35-Jackstar @ 25-1