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QIPCO 1000 Guineas, Newmarket, Sunday 2nd May 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by QuarterMoonII, Mar 21, 2021.

  1. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The biggest problem I can see with the first fillies’ Classic is that the betting is dominated by fillies with lots of potential and very little in the way of juvenile form. There used to be a time when looking for the 1000 Guineas winner was a case of assessing three or four key races like the Cheveley Park Stakes and the Prix Marcel Boussac.

    The betting is not totally dominated by members of the O’Brien clan but it is difficult to quibble with the favourite Pretty Gorgeous. Just as with the colts Classic, the key factor may be that the going was soft when arguably the most significant form line was drawn: the Fillies’ Mile. Pretty Gorgeous beat Indigo Girl by half a length at HQ with Snowfall a length third and that race also featured Dubai Fountain, Zabeel Queen, Shale, Mother Earth and Isabella Giles.

    In the Moyglare Stud Stakes on good ground, Shale had beaten Pretty Gorgeous three-quarters of a length. On soft ground prior to that Pretty Gorgeous had beaten Shale with Mother Earth third and Snowfall fifth in the Debutante Stakes. So in Pretty Gorgeous are we simply looking at a mudlark, able to beat Shale and Mother Earth who need quicker ground?

    Mother Earth’s only win was a five runner Group 3 at Naas, her only unplaced effort was in the Fillies’ Mile but she finished her season running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf with Miss Amulet third, so she does appear to want quick ground.

    Donnacha O’Brien’s Shale won the Silver Flash Stakes on good ground, was second in the Debutante Stakes but won the Moyglare Stud Stakes on good ground. It is very easy to explain her poor running in the Fillies’ Mile taking into account the going.

    John Gosden’s Indigo Girl was runner-up in the Fillies’ Mile on her latest start after winning her first two races: a cosy win in the May Hill Stakes with Dubai Fountain three-quarters of a length second and Zabeel Queen third; and a five-runner novice event on soft ground.

    Of the sprint fillies, the one with the most scope seems to be Cheveley Park Stakes winner Alcohol Free. Andrew Balding’s filly beat Miss Amulet on good ground with Happy Romance fourth. In her two earlier starts she debuted with a win in a six furlong novice event and ran second to Happy Romance in the Dick Poole Stakes. What has to be a concern with Jeff Smith’s filly is her sprint pedigree.

    Before being well beaten in the Fillies’ Mile, Isabella Giles won the Rockfel Stakes on good ground and the Prestige Stakes on soft ground (with Prado seven lengths second) so it seems hard to give the going as an excuse for that final poor showing. Perhaps she is not good enough or did not get home.

    Mark Johnston’s Dubai Fountain looks to tie in several races quite well as she was fourth in the Fillies’ Mile, second in the May Hill Stakes and fourth in the Solario Stakes, suggesting that she handles all types of going.

    The problem with much of the rest of the ante-post market is that it comprises horses that have run just once or twice. Second favourite in many lists is Aidan O’Brien’s Santa Barbara, easy winner of a mile maiden at The Curragh on easy ground. O’Brien also has Queens Speech, an American Pharoah filly that easily won a heavy ground maiden at The Curragh; and American Pharoah filly Willow who took three starts to open her account in a mile maiden at Leopardstown.

    Roger Charlton’s Kingman filly Love Is You won a mile novice event on good Ascot ground followed by the Radley Stakes on heavy ground. He is also responsible for Lucid Dreamer, winner of a Kempton novice event and a three-runner Newbury conditions race on good ground.

    The Sea The Stars filly Sea Empress won a Newcastle maiden race on her only start for William Haggas.

    Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Saffron Beach won a maiden race at HQ and followed up winning the Oh So Sharp Stakes on soft ground at the same track.

    Anyone looking for three-year-old form could try John Gosden’s Kestenna, who started in January with a second on the sand at Lingfield and then won novice events at Wolverhampton and Kempton. My own preference of the lightly raced Gosden fillies is Monsoon Moon, a Kingman filly who was third in an Ascot novice event before a facile victory in a five-runner Newmarket novice event last term.

    Richard Hannon’s Frankel filly Snow Lantern was second to Roger Varian’s Zabeel Queen on her only start in an Ascot novice event, so she would be one to look for in the trials. Varian’s filly went on to be third in the May Hill Stakes and fifth in the Fillies’ Mile so she would be interesting in the trials with only three races in the book and plenty of scope.

    The weakness of the Godolphin operation appears to be highlighted by the fact that the once-raced Dubawi filly A’Shaari, an easy winner of a soft ground novice event at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby, is the first one in ante-post lists at 33/1.

    Going with the form book, my ante-post money at this point would be with Indigo Girl as she has demonstrated that she handles different conditions and will surely have come on over the winter. The ones that I want to see in the trials would be Zabeel Queen and Monsoon Moon. I would like to see Gosden with two contenders just to make life difficult for Frankie having to choose a ride.
     
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I fancy Indigo Girl for the Oaks at 16/1
     
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  3. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Massive move on Santa Barbara after the stable tour (ATR website) where AOB was positively glowing about her preparations.
     
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  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Very easy to let Santa Barbara go given the hype, shes always been priced like a proven G1 horse but so far on the track shes only won a poor maiden and she doesnt fit the profile of recent Obrien 1000 Guineas winners who have generally had plenty of experience to the point of looking exposed. Sounds like she does plenty on the bridle and highly likely she is a very good horse if she is standing out in a stable like that, but just not a betting prospect for me, happy to see her taking up a large chunk of the market. The same stables Mother Earth looks the bet to me at 25/1, glad she wasnt mentioned in the stable tour, ive backed Snow Lantern at 33s last season but she has a similar lack of experience to overcome as the favourite.
     
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I backed Pretty Gorgeous at 20/1 ante post and am happy enough with that. The Fillies Mile looks the clear form race to focus on and although soft ground might be helpful I feel she will improve again this season.

    Not many interest me here. Indigo Girl is obviously decent but I think very few look the part for a Guineas winner.

    Santa Barbara is priced like the second coming but is appalling value at 3/1. I am not a big fan of her sire Camelot and she started off at a mile in a race that hasn't worked out well with one winner from 18 races, off 83 in a Nursery. She can win by 10 lengths but will not carry a penny of mine.

    In the rank outsiders I felt Godolphin's A'shaari was interesting at 33/1. She made an excellent start in winning her 7F maiden easily at Newmarket last August. 4 winners came from that race and it was a decent start to a career. The fact that we didn't see her again last year has to be factored in but if she lines up in one of the trials it will be interesting. By Dubawi, she is a full sister to Wuheida, who was talented for the same connections.

    I'll stay with Pretty Gorgeous for now and hope she lines up on the day.
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    So what do you think about her at 16s for the Oaks? (no thread for that yet)
     
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  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    In some ways the same caveat regarding whether she is simply good enough has to apply Ron. If she wins the Guineas her price will collapse for the Oaks and 16/1 would look a good investment. There is still that concern about any horse fast enough to win a Guineas then staying the extra half mile.

    Love managed the double last season but that Oaks was the poorest I can recall for a very long time. Love was the best filly by a long way and the runner up Ennistymon suffered a few similar or worse pastings when failing to score in six subsequent outings.

    My feeling is that an unraced filly will probably emerge and become one of the leading lights for Epsom. I will be keeping an eye out for such possible canidates and may play for the Oaks prior to their seasonal debut because the value will likely be gone if they make a winning debut. For now I have Pretty Gorgeous at 40/1. She has obvious stamina questions but if she were to win the Guineas she would be skinny for the Oaks and would then be a useful ticket to hold in reserve. It looked last year that she might be a 10F filly in waiting and many have cited that as a reason to oppose her in the Guineas. She may fall between the two stools but it's a starting point for both races as we await the new faces this year.

    I would rather take 16/1 Santa Barbara for the Oaks than 3/1 for the Guineas though. I will get a closer look at the Oaks and potential unraced fillies who could come into the picture in the couple of months.
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I don't actually fancy her for the 1000 Gns Grendel. I just looked at all the Timeform top 2yos with a "p" and she looked the only one of those who might be suited by the 12f rather than the mile. So I was thinking at 16/1 she only has to be staying on strongly in the 1000 Gns into a place and her odds will halve
     
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  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Have a few quid on Willow for the Oaks at 40/1, American Pharoah out of Peeping Fawn, she looked very strong at the finish of her mile maiden win at the 3rd attempt. These Coolmore American Pharoahs are looking tremendous prospects physically and he had the Park Hill winner last year so he will produce proper middle distance types, he was the best horse in America probably since Secretariat, and I think Coolmore are going to get a lot of success from him with their Danehill, Saddlers Wells and Galileo mares. Theyve excelled on soft ground so far as 2yos but its possible that its the stamina test rather than the ground that played to their strengths. I think Van Gogh(out of Oaks winner Imagine) and Willow are his two best middle distance prospects this season, Queen Speech also looks a top class prospect but she has the US dam side being out of a Spieghtstown mare so she wont be winning the Oaks despite being half the price of Willow, she might be one for the Irish 1000 Guineas.
     
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  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Teona is another interesting one for the Oaks for Roger Varian, by Sea The Stars out of the quirky 10f G1 winner Ambivalent, she bumped into Sea Empress on debut who looks likely to be Haggas best 3yo filly, and pretty much matched her but was boxed in at a vital stage while Sea Empress showed her gears. Looked a strong maiden with those two pulling well clear and Teona won half the track next time out at 10f. I think she is one of the major English players for the race, im on at 66s but 20s is still fair enough I suppose given her credentials, although Roger Varians record at the classic level is not great, with the backing he gets he will need to start delivering more in the top races.
     
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  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I think 16/1 for Santa Barbara is long gone Ron. I hadn't been following the market regularly but the filly is a best priced 5/1 now. Those seem ridiculous odds.

    Of the big prices, Michael Stoute's Noon Star makes appeal on breeding, being by Galileo out of Midday. A debut 3rd over 7F was followed by a comfortable win when stepped up to a mile and the runner up landed a minor race next time. She will need improvement for sure but when she steps up to 10F we may see her in a much better light. I've had a small interest at 33/1 with William Hill. The breeding and trainer will ensure that money will come if she makes a winning reappearance this season.

    Oaks Noon Star 33/1 to go with Pretty Gorgeous at 40/1.
     
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  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    It's Indigo Girl Grendel that I fancied at 16s lol
     
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  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Indigo Girl won the May Hill and the first five home all ran behind Pretty Gorgeous in the Fillies Mile next time, with Indigo Girl doing best. The Gosden filly is a full sister to Journey, who certainly stayed well enough and whose career is probably best remembered for three runs in the fillies and mares champion race at Ascot. Collared by Simple Verse in her first attempt, she then won easily the following season before then being unplaced behind Hydrangea when trying to bring up the double in her final career start.

    Indigo Girl seems more precocious than Journey, who took time to get her career on track, and then improved quite a lot with age. The question will be how much Indigo Girl can progress from two to three. Journey went from 76 on official ratings in May, to running in the fillies and mares with a mark of 113. Indigo Girl is already rated 112 on official figures and clearly hasn't got the 37 lbs improvement that Journey had unless she is capable of a world record rating of 149 come season's end! On the plus side 7-10 lbs improvement would be enough to put her into Oaks winning territory in an average season.

    Hand in heart I would say 10F might be ideal for Indigo Girl but she is way better value at 16/1 than a maiden winner at 5/1 in my opinion. Santa Barbara could well be between Evens and 6/4 if she wins the Guineas but I would rather have done my money to smaller stakes at big odds, with so many imponderables at this stage.
     
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  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Video link:-

     
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  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    If Santa Barbara is the wonder filly that the betting suggests for Guineas and Oaks then surely the better value is 33/1 for the Arc?

    Even of you could get a double at full prices, 5/2 and 5/1 for Guineas AND Oaks is only 20/1. Related contingencies mean that bookies would cut the price for the Oaks on the assumption that she would be much shorter after a Guineas win but little thought seems to be given to the fact that the double is "Donald Ducked" if she gets beat at Newmarket. You would have to feel that her Arc price would shorten after a Guineas win and would collapse if she does the double in the Oaks. It seems like a low cost investment at 33/1 for an interest if the filly is special and not a lot of damage done at double carpet if she is a bust.
     
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  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    20 entries for the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket on Wednesday of next week. I would expect that to cut up a fair bit but it's an open looking affair.

    Alcohol Free is top on official ratings but like recent Cheveley Park winners she will have stamina questions for the Guineas and would be looking to give some hope via the 7F trial race.

    Early entries here:-

    https://t.attheraces.com/racecard/Newmarket/14-April-2021/1535
     
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  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Looking at the times yesterday, I found it interesting that Master of the Seas' time was slow by 2.69s whereas in the fillies' maiden; albeit a fur shorter, was slow by 2.45s. What interested me was:
    • this was a filly making her debut
    • she won by 7l
    • her RP write up "Made virtually all, raced freely, against far rail early, drifted left from 3f out, nudged along and went clear from under 2f out, unbalanced 1f out, pushed out inside final furlong, impressive"
    Plus her pedigree

    upload_2021-4-16_12-34-32.png

    and the dam is by Canford Cliffs


    My attention was immediately drawn to the 1000Gns but she isn't entered. I then though if the trainer has something else entered that would be of interest. But alas she hasn't

    I'll be keeping my eye open for anything supplemented from that stable
     
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  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Just realised she has Saffron Beach in there at 16/1. If she is better than Bellosa then I'll assume she will reverse placings with Sacred and take her ew at 16/1
     
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  19. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    This must be the stupidest 1000 Guineas market is living memory:

    2/1 Santa Barbara (Aidan O’Brien)
    7/1 Pretty Gorgeous (Joseph O’Brien)
    9/1 Snow Lantern (Richard Hannon)
    10/1 Alcohol Free (Andrew Balding)
    14/1 Sacred (William Haggas)
    16/1 Saffron Beach (Jane Chapple-Hyam)
    20/1 Statement (Martyn Meade), Shale (Donnacha O’Brien), Indigo Girl (John Gosden)
    25/1 Love Is You (Roger Charlton), Joan Of Arc (Aidan O’Brien), Monsoon Moon (John Gosden), Sea Empress (William Haggas)

    Never can there have been such a short-priced favourite for a 1000 Guineas as a horse that is reportedly catching pigeons at home and is well regarded by the trainer, despite its racecourse form amounting to maiden race win. The runner-up from Santa Barbara’s maiden victory has yet to win in three subsequent attempts and none of the next six have won, including the beaten favourite; and the sixth home was beaten off 77 in a handicap.

    Snow Lantern staked her claim winning a Newbury maiden race against the boys and it looks fair to suggest that it may be good form as the first three home pulled a long way clear of the rest, the runner-up Derab still a maiden but having filled the same spot on his only juvenile start against a Classic trial runner. But is that really good enough to win a Classic?

    Pretty Gorgeous has the form in the book having won the Fillies’ Mile and, theoretically is better than Indigo Girl, who has been on the slide in the betting of late (now out to 20/1). Shale ran in the Fillies’ Mile but was well beaten on her comeback in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, just ahead of Joan Of Arc.

    Alcohol Free hardly blew away her rivals in the Fred Darling, just managing to collar Statement in the shadow of the post; but will the big race be run to suit her and what tactics will Adam Kirby adopt? Whilst the first two in the race drew clear, a blanket could be thrown over the next five or six giving the form a suspect look and only three or four of the runners went into the race with good juvenile form.

    I had Sacred down as a sprinter and she was ridden like a non-stayer, held up and brought with a late run to win the Nell Gwyn; but will that tactic work over the extra furlong at HQ? She might have an empty tank by the final furlong and the runner-up Saffron Beach might be the better option as there does not look to be any reason to doubt her over the trip. Love Is You was creditable in third that day but I do not think that she settles well in her races and always seems to have run out of gears at the business end of the race.

    I can actually see there being quite a big field at Newmarket on May 2nd as trainers and owners will decide that they should not be scared off by the hype horse in what looks a wide open renewal with only three or four having strong form claims.
     
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  20. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    There is a bunch of decent 6-7f fillies who you just know wont be winning a Guineas, and of the established mile fillies from last season, Shale and Mother Earth appear to have little confidence behind them, Dubai Fountain appears to be out, Indigo Girl is targeting the Diane, and Pretty Gorgeous looks a mudlark.

    Santa Barbara and Snow Lantern have both been very highly regarded since day one and both shaped with exceptional promise in maidens. Santa Barbaras race has not worked out well and she has always been unbackable for the race value wise, but being the Ballydoyle number 1 in a Guineas speaks for itself. Snow Lantern has really stepped up on her debut today, beating two well bred and well touted colts quite comfortably, and looks a far better mile prospect than any of the fillies in the Fred Darling, apparently the sectionals compare favourably against that race to further back that up.

    Imo its very logical that these 2 maiden winners are in the top 3 in the betting, the race is lacking genuine G1 mile fillies other than the soft ground specialist Pretty Gorgeous, and its concerning for the Fillies Mile winner that Gosden doesnt consider the runner up a proper Guineas filly before you even factor in the likely fast ground.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2021

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