Daily Racing Thread Sunday 3rd. October 2021

Sunday's Meetings

Tipperary
N/H 8 Races 1:00-4:55p.m.
Killarney
N/H 8 Races 1:10-5:15p.m.
Longchamp
Flat 8 Races 1:15-6:00p.m.
Uttoxeter
N/H 8 Races 1:37-5:40p.m.
Kelso
N/H 7 Races 1:55-5:25p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

Will be out most of the day to enjoy glorious Indian Summer weather down here, so posting early.

Have tried to find something to go with my Arc e/w selection, Deep Bond, and had a good look at the top sprint, the Prix de l'Abbaye (16:25), and will stick with the first one I looked at, Berneuil, who seems to have as good a chance as any on form. Top jockey, Christophe Soumillon rides for the C&Y Lerner yard. High numbers have, apparently, an advantage on this strange course set on a sort of spur at the Longchamp track, and selection drawn in Stall-14.

Enjoy the day out in Paris, guys, hope the forum finds plenty of winners.

 

Can Frankel start Arc Sunday with a winner in the Prix Marcel Boussac (1:15)? The Juddmonte owned filly Raclette is favourite with the British bookies but Andre Fabre may take her out because of the heavy ground, even though we know that Frankel himself liked to get a toe in. In her absence this would look like a three-way contest between Fabre’s Godolphin runner Fleur d’Iris (easy winner of a Group 3 over course and distance last time), Francis-Henri Graffard’s Acer Valley (a Group 3 winner at this course who won her maiden at Saint Cloud on heavy going) and Joseph O’Brien’s Agartha (second in the Group 1 Moyglare and has won on soft going).

After the race restricted to fillies, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardare (1:50) may go to the only filly in the field. It is ironic that Coolmore could win with Ancient Rome, trained by Andre Fabre, who has won his last three including beating four rivals in a Group 3 over course and distance last time. The ground may prove the undoing of the principal overseas raiders. Phoenix Stakes winner Ebro River tops the ratings here and has won on soft ground but after his third in the National Stakes over seven furlongs, does he want heavy ground? Noble Truth just held on to win the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster and is an unknown on the ground stepping up a furlong whilst Aidan O’Brien’s Stone Age is a maiden, touched off in the Group 2 Champions Juvenile last time that has never run on worse than good. That leads me to the unbeaten filly ACCAKABA, who won on debut on soft ground and Christophe Ferland’s filly beat Fleur d’Iris in the Group 2 Prix du Calvados last time.

The Prix de l’Opera (3:50) is virtually a re-run of the Prix Jean Romanet, where GRAND GLORY beat Audarya, with Thundering Nights third and Ambition fourth. Of the Classic generation, Zeyaadah will be okay on the ground but was behind Rougir and Incarville last time; Prix de Diane winner Joan of Arc drops back to this trip and holds Rougir on Diane form; and German Oaks winner Palmas comes here unbeaten but has not run since that August 1st victory. If she handles the soft ground, the German filly may give Frankie Dettori’s mount most to worry about.

The bookmakers are probably right in their assessment of the Prix de l’Abbaye (4:25) with Francois Rohaut’s three year old filly Suesa a short priced favourite to see off Winter Power (unproven on the ground) and Glass Slippers (touched off by Wooded in this last year on similar ground).

Although Space Blues head the ratings in the Prix de la Forêt (5:00) and is favourite with the bookmakers, Kinross and Sagamiyra have both won on very soft ground and the Aga Khan’s filly was beaten in a photo in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild by Guineas winner Mother Earth in her penultimate race.

 

Sorry mate I've backed the same horse. Got 9s which is a bit short for ew purposes so win only for me.

In the Arc i can't seperate the top 4 in the market and dont really give a **** what wins so just for interest I've backed two ew at silly prices.

Sealiway 40/1 & Torquator Tasso 66/1 both 5 places. Small rev fc just in case.

 

Longchamp
15,50 Burgarita 12/1 e/w bet365, others 11/1. All four places

Tipperary
16;20 Steer Clear 121 e/w Lads and Coral three places, Sky 10/1 four places

And as I have already said in his thread I have a bet for months Raabihah 40/1 e/w.

 

Looks like the ground has come for Hurricane Lane and is now clear favourite.
That will do for me.
Alenquer and Mojo Star the ew picks

 

I've had a small (very small) EW go on TT. Looking at the form it seems the ground shouldn't be an issue for it and that could play a big part today.

 

Most of my bets today are ante-post ones. I have been with Suesa all season and she only let me down once. Soft ground and 5F hold no fears for her and the trainer feels she has improved from her last run. One of the surprise packets of the season, I hope they keep her in training.

Space Blues was once on my radar for the Derby. Charlie Appleby had supplemented him for the race but I transpired that shorter trips were his game. He managed to miss the Foret in previous years but Appleby feels he is cherry ripe for this and the soft ground is no issue.

Ebro River was my pick for the Middle Park but the ground came up too fast. He has his ground now and hopefully gets relative peace up front. The 7th furlong isn't ideal for a horse already destined to go sprinting next season but he represents the class in this race and had only Point Lonsdale and Native Trail ahead of him last time.

I went with Hurricane Lane based on the thinking that it will be a test of stamina today. You can pick holes in his form but he keeps getting the job done and his only defeat came at Epsom, when he lost shoes during the race. Adayar is my biggest concern. Tarnawa was short enough to my eyes but is 6/1 now. Hurricane Lane is now favourite and short enough to be thinking about now but at 5/1 he seemed value at the time. I can't buy into the Japanese runners.

Palmas impressed me last time and mud is no worry for her. I felt they might have gone for the Arc and maybe they will be wondering about that later if she wins. 7/1 looked fair odds.

 

In the opening Prix Marcel Boussac, the front two clearly went off too fast with confirmed front runner Fleur d'Iris from the Fabre yard one of them. You could see in the 'false' straight that the rest of the field were four or five lengths off them; and when they folded in the finishing straight, Fabre's other runner was the one to profit.

It was another Godolphin runner making the running in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere but this time it was William Buick on Charlie Appleby's Noble Truth. This time at least the pacesetter was able to hold on for second, picked off in the final furlong by Frankie on Angel Bleu.

I did not get the impression that either of those winners were real Group 1 performers, Angel Bleu previously winning the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood on heavy ground, form which has not really worked out; whilst Zellie beat a filly that was previously third in a Deauville Listed race.

 

Dismal from Ebro River, he couldn't get to the front and then emptied rather tamely. It didn't do a lot for the National Stakes form of Native River and Point Lonsdale and I think Hugo Palmer would have been as well letting him take his chance in the Middle Park. There seems little point sending him to the USA for another outing and the horse looks a prime candidate for not training on after too many races as a 2YO

Well done to Ralph Beckett with Angel Bleu, who has really found his form on soft ground. This didn't look like a race to throw up a Newmarket Guineas winner though.

Zellie won the Boussac earlier and she had been beaten a couple of times previously. Oscula had bested her earlier in the season but that form was turned around by more than six lengths on today's very soft ground. I don't think it is much of a secret that today's non runner Raclette is held in high regard by Fabre and she has form that looks solid through Welwal, whom she defeated by four lengths when they met. The plan was apparently to go to the Oh So Sharp Stakes with Raclette should she miss today's race, so we may see her next week.

 

Get the **** in!!

 

What a shout!

 

Great, Great, Great.

 

wow well done!
How did you pick that out?

 

That will surely be the biggest upset since 1975 when Germany's Star Appeal won.

In running, I could see that it was the one to be bothered about coming late and fast down the outside (not quite like Dancing Brave).

No complaints with Tarnawa, Soumillon decided to take the shortest route and wait for the gaps. Perhaps James Doyle will be regretting not making more use of Hurricane Lane, a definite stayer but held up in mid division today. I think William Buick decided to make more use of Adayar having tried being on the front end earlier in the afternoon.

Well done those that had an each way tickle - hope your bookies are doing best odds as the industry SP was 80/1.

 

Like everyone else i expected the winner to come from one of the top 4 in the market. But i couldn't split them and didn't have any strong feelings towards any of them so i went looking for something at a price for the place. This one stood out as huge. If it had been 25s,33s then i might not have bothered but it was 66s,80s and 100s in places. Worth speculating a couple of quid at those prices. Similar comments apply to Sealiway. Thought it was too big a price for a pretty decent horse. Ive backed that one before and you dont have to risk much at those sort of prices. Skybet offered 5 places. Was worth the gamble. Winner at 66s and 5th at 40s.

 

Sacrificed best odds for the extra place but I'm happy enough.