Bumper analysis by trainers. I thought I would share this personal analysis as there is a lot more interest in these races these days. It is a worthwhile exercise in looking at the stats as in this sphere the prominence of trainers can often change. For example, a few years ago the likes of Warren Greatrex and Charlie Longsdon would have been near the top of the pile on strike rate but both are now some way down the list. Trainers with the highest strike rate of wins to runners; (last 5 seasons) DR R Newland 33 A Honeyball 31 N Henderson 25 P Nicholls 24 O Murphy 24 W Mullins 24 N Richards 22 B Ellison 22 D Pipe 21 K Bailey 21 H Fry 21 K Dalgleish 20 Anthony Honeyball has for several years been a trainer to follow in bumpers, it seems he buys horses that will offer a quick return. Many however probably do not achieve that much when going hurdling and chasing. His best bumper horse Acey Milan being a fair example. Henderson, Nicholls and Murphy buy very expensive stores so you would expect these sorts of numbers. I am not sure any of them or Mullins offer great value. The Northern trainers, Richards, Ellison and Dalgleish are very interesting inclusions on this list. The latter is a dual purpose trainer so he is obviously very shrewd when choosing where to start his young horses. Trainers with the worst strike rates; (last 5 seasons) H Oliver 0 O Greenall 2 Evan Williams 3 J Candlish 3 N Hawke 4 Some notable stables to avoid here but I would be wary of Oliver Greenall. He looks like an up and coming trainer and has had a bumper winner this year so could quite likely rise up the list in the next twelve months. Winners this season; F O’Brien 6/34 N Henderson 5/19 P Nicholls 4/9 O Murphy 3/15 This list is useful as it is highly likely that these yards will have the best returns. The early indications are usually a very good guide in the season to come in this sphere. Woeful this season; M Hammond 0/11 M Keighley 0/10 P Bowen 0/9 C Tizzard 0/7 H Fry 0/7 W Greatrex 0/7 P Kirby 0/7 K Bailey 0/6 Interesting to see Tizzard, Fry and Bailey on this list as their runners usually go off plenty short enough.
Nicholls certainly does a lot better in bumpers these days than a few years ago. His bumper runners had a habit of being over-bet and then under-performing but he seems to have them pretty straight as a rule these days. Henderson's are usually very short in the betting too - maybe Nass can dig out ROI figures for bumper runners per trainer for the last 5 years, I'm pretty sure Newland and Honeyball would be well clear at the top of that table.
I must say I do love the puzzle a bumper presents - and I have to thank you stick for getting me interested in these races. Looking at the breeding side, also experience to date and then of course the connections - it all adds up to a nice little challenge and the odds can be very rewarding
Trainers with more than 20 runs in bumpers since 1/1/2017. Ordered on Profit/Loss at BSP Trainer Runners Winners Win S/R WAX EX Wins P/L Betfair Brian Eckley 34 4 11.76 2.58 1.42 209.75 Tim Vaughan 69 5 7.25 -1.67 6.67 150.18 James Moffatt 33 6 18.18 3.93 2.07 141.65 Christian Williams 52 4 7.69 -0.05 4.05 137 Graeme McPherson 74 9 12.16 3.03 5.97 131.55 Ian Williams 88 13 14.77 2.01 10.99 126.4 Tom Symonds 46 5 10.87 1.96 3.04 114.45 Nick Gifford 72 8 11.11 0.21 7.79 103.03 Emma Lavelle 112 15 13.39 2.61 12.39 92.63 Seamus Mullins 107 11 10.28 4.59 6.41 84.63 Alastair Ralph 50 4 8 0.26 3.74 67.15 Nicky Martin 23 4 17.39 2.5 1.5 63.18 Paul Webber 54 3 5.56 0.09 2.91 52.54 Amy Murphy 50 5 10 -0.2 5.2 46.92 Micky Hammond 124 13 10.48 3.24 9.76 46.43 Kerry Lee 21 2 9.52 0.38 1.62 43.61 Chris Gordon 98 14 14.29 2.93 11.07 40.83 Harry Fry 143 33 23.08 6.76 26.24 40.64 Ruth Jefferson 32 5 15.63 1.82 3.18 40.02 Richard Hobson 24 4 16.67 1.44 2.56 33.68 Ben Case 65 3 4.62 0.13 2.87 33.44 Suzy Smith 34 5 14.71 1.71 3.29 31.62 Pam Sly 42 4 9.52 -2.15 6.15 31.41 W P Mullins 20 4 20 0.6 3.4 30.56 Lucy Wadham 76 7 9.21 -1.07 8.07 28.48 Noel Williams 53 6 11.32 1.68 4.32 28.11 Kim Bailey 159 32 20.13 4.11 27.89 24.13 Anthony Honeyball 103 33 32.04 8.82 24.18 22.35 Milton Harris 44 5 11.36 2.06 2.94 22.11 John O'Shea 27 3 11.11 2.15 0.85 20.57 Dr Richard Newland 24 8 33.33 3.76 4.24 18.85 Jeremy Scott 53 6 11.32 2.88 3.12 18.55 Venetia Williams 61 10 16.39 1.25 8.75 14.9 Henry Daly 102 11 10.78 1.85 9.15 13.55 Nicky Richards 112 27 24.11 -0.6 27.6 13.39 Hughie Morrison 38 7 18.42 0.69 6.31 11.68 Robert Stephens 30 3 10 0.99 2.01 11.49 Philip Hobbs 173 24 13.87 -1.02 25.02 9.99 Richard Phillips 28 5 17.86 2.94 2.06 9.13 Warren Greatrex 205 27 13.17 -5.62 32.62 7.57 Victor Dartnall 27 4 14.81 1.48 2.52 6.73 Jimmy Frost 21 1 4.76 0.56 0.44 6.46 Mick Channon 28 6 21.43 0.27 5.73 5.45 Anthony Carson 21 1 4.76 0.4 0.6 4.24 Laura Morgan 53 11 20.75 4.17 6.83 3.95 James Ewart 67 6 8.96 -1.48 7.48 3.94 Tom Lacey 127 22 17.32 -1.4 23.4 3.83 Jonjo O'Neill 114 20 17.54 2.61 17.39 3.57 David Pipe 110 21 19.09 3.37 17.63 2.63 Fergal O'Brien 296 48 16.22 -1.54 49.54 2.52 Nigel Hawke 61 4 6.56 -0.28 4.28 2.17 Mrs Melanie Rowley 26 5 19.23 0.76 4.24 -1.15 Oliver Sherwood 93 11 11.83 -0.06 11.06 -1.22 Richard Fahey 22 3 13.64 0.67 2.33 -1.58 Harriet Graham 33 1 3.03 -0.51 1.51 -1.62 S R B Crawford 78 17 21.79 2.67 14.33 -1.62 Alistair Whillans 69 3 4.35 0.23 2.77 -1.79 Jedd O'Keeffe 40 7 17.5 1.64 5.36 -3.07 Sam Thomas 73 9 12.33 2.68 6.32 -3.97 Alex Hales 50 4 8 1.05 2.95 -5.43 Sandy Thomson 37 6 16.22 1.46 4.54 -5.81 Olly Murphy 180 43 23.89 2.15 40.85 -6.32 Tom George 100 14 14 -1.75 15.75 -6.46 Jack R Barber 31 2 6.45 -0.47 2.47 -6.85 Nick Williams 29 5 17.24 0.13 4.87 -7.97 Tim Easterby 38 2 5.26 -0.07 2.07 -8.31 Samuel Drinkwater 27 3 11.11 0.58 2.42 -9.34 Linda Jewell 23 1 4.35 0.69 0.31 -11 Peter Niven 26 2 7.69 0.02 1.98 -11.05 Rebecca Menzies 103 9 8.74 -0.92 9.92 -12.39 Harry Whittington 114 14 12.28 -3.46 17.46 -13.06 Nicky Henderson 305 77 25.25 -1.18 78.18 -13.56 Rose Dobbin 45 5 11.11 0.12 4.88 -13.84 Brian Ellison 108 23 21.3 2.45 20.55 -14.14 Paul Nicholls 218 52 23.85 -2.36 54.36 -14.21 Philip Kirby 163 9 5.52 -4.21 13.21 -14.25 Michael Scudamore 88 5 5.68 -2.53 7.53 -14.56 Mark Bradstock 20 1 5 -0.47 1.47 -14.85 Donald Whillans 53 5 9.43 0.81 4.19 -15.05 John Quinn 21 2 9.52 -1.51 3.51 -15.28 Katy Price 32 1 3.13 -0.01 1.01 -15.43 Bob Buckler 28 2 7.14 1.12 0.88 -15.71 Gary Hanmer 32 2 6.25 0.74 1.26 -15.75 Neil Mulholland 125 17 13.6 0.98 16.02 -16.53 Stuart Edmunds 84 7 8.33 -0.93 7.93 -16.69 Keith Dalgleish 94 19 20.21 -0.9 19.9 -17.29 Michael Easterby 29 2 6.9 -0.53 2.53 -18.3 Simon West 23 1 4.35 -0.07 1.07 -19.64 Chris Down 31 1 3.23 0.31 0.69 -19.71 Mark Walford 24 1 4.17 -0.72 1.72 -19.86 Sue Smith 59 3 5.08 -1.13 4.13 -19.98 John Norton 20 0 0 -0.27 0.27 -20 Kevin Bishop 20 0 0 -0.39 0.39 -20 Robert Walford 20 0 0 -0.52 0.52 -20 Sarah Humphrey 20 0 0 -0.47 0.47 -20 Malcolm Jefferson 29 3 10.34 -1.88 4.88 -20.3 Michael Mullineaux 21 0 0 -0.19 0.19 -21 Gordon Elliott 42 7 16.67 -4.79 11.79 -21.27 Johnny Farrelly 42 3 7.14 -0.56 3.56 -21.57 Debra Hamer 29 2 6.9 0.07 1.93 -21.91 David Bridgwater 22 0 0 -0.72 0.72 -22 Fiona Shaw 22 0 0 -0.26 0.26 -22 Sarah-Jayne Davies 22 0 0 -0.28 0.28 -22 Stuart Coltherd 26 1 3.85 0.1 0.9 -22.65 Brian Barr 27 1 3.7 0.31 0.69 -22.9 Barry Brennan 23 0 0 -0.33 0.33 -23 Katie Scott 23 0 0 -0.29 0.29 -23 Richard J Bandey 23 0 0 -0.56 0.56 -23 Robin Dickin 23 0 0 -0.35 0.35 -23 Thomas Gallagher 23 0 0 -0.92 0.92 -23 Neil King 80 7 8.75 0.13 6.87 -23.28 Ian Duncan 24 0 0 -0.9 0.9 -24 Susan Corbett 67 4 5.97 1.36 2.64 -25.1 George Bewley 26 0 0 -0.39 0.39 -26 Jim Goldie 26 0 0 -1.31 1.31 -26 Jennie Candlish 33 1 3.03 -0.85 1.85 -26.12 Clare Hobson 27 0 0 -0.28 0.28 -27 John Groucott 27 0 0 -0.37 0.37 -27 N W Alexander 57 3 5.26 -0.28 3.28 -27.15 Rebecca Curtis 38 2 5.26 -2.99 4.99 -27.3 Donald McCain 171 24 14.04 0.16 23.84 -28.97 Ben Pauling 168 17 10.12 -4.53 21.53 -29 Robert Smith 29 0 0 -0.8 0.8 -29 Alan King 236 33 13.98 -2.65 35.65 -30.37 Kayley Woollacott 32 0 0 -0.86 0.86 -32 Jamie Snowden 131 17 12.98 -2.88 19.88 -32.64 Iain Jardine 46 3 6.52 -1.91 4.91 -33.55 David Dennis 38 1 2.63 -1.91 2.91 -35.48 Bill Turner 36 0 0 -1.14 1.14 -36 Andrew Crook 38 0 0 -0.46 0.46 -38 Gillian Boanas 57 3 5.26 -1.52 4.52 -39.48 Charlie Longsdon 97 9 9.28 -0.44 9.44 -43.92 Oliver Greenall 51 1 1.96 -2.53 3.53 -49.24 Lucinda Russell 119 7 5.88 -2.92 9.92 -51.98 Evan Williams 101 4 3.96 -4.66 8.66 -54.62 Peter Bowen 86 7 8.14 -4.34 11.34 -54.81 Sue Gardner 56 0 0 -1.9 1.9 -56 Chris Grant 95 3 3.16 -1.34 4.34 -59.79 Nigel Twiston-Davies 241 29 12.03 -3.52 32.52 -70.12 Martin Keighley 108 6 5.56 -1.08 7.08 -72.27 Gary Moore 138 11 7.97 -5.23 16.23 -74.73 Colin Tizzard 128 8 6.25 -5.78 13.78 -80.27 Dan Skelton 293 48 16.38 -6.41 54.41 -105.56
Trainers listed by Winners against Expected (so against market expectations) Trainer Anthony Honeyball Harry Fry Seamus Mullins Laura Morgan Kim Bailey James Moffatt Dr Richard Newland David Pipe Micky Hammond Graeme McPherson Richard Phillips Chris Gordon Jeremy Scott Sam Thomas S R B Crawford Emma Lavelle Jonjo O'Neill Brian Eckley Nicky Martin Brian Ellison John O'Shea Olly Murphy Milton Harris Ian Williams Tom Symonds Henry Daly Ruth Jefferson Suzy Smith Noel Williams Jedd O'Keeffe Victor Dartnall Sandy Thomson Richard Hobson Susan Corbett Venetia Williams Bob Buckler Alex Hales Robert Stephens Neil Mulholland Donald Whillans Mrs Melanie Rowley Gary Hanmer Hughie Morrison Linda Jewell Richard Fahey W P Mullins Samuel Drinkwater Jimmy Frost Anthony Carson Kerry Lee Chris Down Brian Barr Mick Channon Alastair Ralph Alistair Whillans Nick Gifford Donald McCain Ben Case Nick Williams Neil King Rose Dobbin Stuart Coltherd Paul Webber Debra Hamer Peter Niven Katy Price Christian Williams Oliver Sherwood Tim Easterby Simon West Michael Mullineaux Amy Murphy Fiona Shaw John Norton Nigel Hawke Sarah-Jayne Davies Clare Hobson N W Alexander Katie Scott Barry Brennan Robin Dickin John Groucott Kevin Bishop George Bewley Charlie Longsdon Andrew Crook Jack R Barber Mark Bradstock Sarah Humphrey Harriet Graham Robert Walford Michael Easterby Johnny Farrelly Richard J Bandey Nicky Richards Mark Walford David Bridgwater Robert Smith Jennie Candlish Kayley Woollacott Keith Dalgleish Ian Duncan Rebecca Menzies Thomas Gallagher Stuart Edmunds Philip Hobbs Lucy Wadham Martin Keighley Sue Smith Bill Turner Nicky Henderson Jim Goldie Chris Grant Tom Lacey James Ewart John Quinn Gillian Boanas Fergal O'Brien Tim Vaughan Tom George Malcolm Jefferson Sue Gardner Iain Jardine David Dennis Pam Sly Paul Nicholls Michael Scudamore Oliver Greenall Alan King Jamie Snowden Lucinda Russell Rebecca Curtis Harry Whittington Nigel Twiston-Davies Philip Kirby Peter Bowen Ben Pauling Evan Williams Gordon Elliott Gary Moore Warren Greatrex Colin Tizzard Dan Skelton
and by strikerate Trainer Dr Richard Newland Anthony Honeyball Nicky Henderson Nicky Richards Olly Murphy Paul Nicholls Harry Fry S R B Crawford Mick Channon Brian Ellison Laura Morgan Keith Dalgleish Kim Bailey W P Mullins Mrs Melanie Rowley David Pipe Hughie Morrison James Moffatt Richard Phillips Jonjo O'Neill Jedd O'Keeffe Nicky Martin Tom Lacey Nick Williams Richard Hobson Gordon Elliott Venetia Williams Dan Skelton Sandy Thomson Fergal O'Brien Ruth Jefferson Victor Dartnall Ian Williams Suzy Smith Chris Gordon Donald McCain Tom George Alan King Philip Hobbs Richard Fahey Neil Mulholland Emma Lavelle Warren Greatrex Jamie Snowden Sam Thomas Harry Whittington Graeme McPherson Nigel Twiston-Davies Oliver Sherwood Brian Eckley Milton Harris Jeremy Scott Noel Williams John O'Shea Samuel Drinkwater Nick Gifford Rose Dobbin Tom Symonds Henry Daly Micky Hammond Malcolm Jefferson Seamus Mullins Ben Pauling Robert Stephens Amy Murphy Kerry Lee John Quinn Pam Sly Donald Whillans Charlie Longsdon Lucy Wadham James Ewart Neil King Rebecca Menzies Stuart Edmunds Peter Bowen Alex Hales Alastair Ralph Gary Moore Peter Niven Christian Williams Tim Vaughan Bob Buckler Johnny Farrelly Debra Hamer Michael Easterby Nigel Hawke Iain Jardine Jack R Barber Gary Hanmer Colin Tizzard Susan Corbett Lucinda Russell Michael Scudamore Paul Webber Martin Keighley Philip Kirby Tim Easterby N W Alexander Gillian Boanas Rebecca Curtis Sue Smith Mark Bradstock Jimmy Frost Anthony Carson Ben Case Linda Jewell Alistair Whillans Simon West Mark Walford Evan Williams Stuart Coltherd Brian Barr Chris Down Chris Grant Katy Price Harriet Graham Jennie Candlish David Dennis Oliver Greenall Michael Mullineaux Fiona Shaw John Norton Sarah-Jayne Davies Clare Hobson Katie Scott Barry Brennan Robin Dickin John Groucott Kevin Bishop George Bewley Andrew Crook Sarah Humphrey Robert Walford Richard J Bandey David Bridgwater Robert Smith Kayley Woollacott Ian Duncan Thomas Gallagher Bill Turner Jim Goldie Sue Gardner
