Cheltenham 2018: Antepost Thread

When you gave me that response to me selecting Might Bite last year for the Gold Cup he was a 14/1 shot, so EW you'd still be showing a nice profit.

Either way Might Bite got beat a length on ground that was really against him and ground that really favoured Native River.

I cant predict the weather forecast a year in advance.

Apologies for after timing, but I was with Native River on the day as I like alot of punters, hence the huge drift knew the ground was against Might Bite on the day

 

Ok I was wrong but still can’t have him! Lol he was impressive yesterday and give him credit where it is due but imo he just a plodder a good one but just a plodder at it who got the run of the race and few of the fancied runners didn’t perform eg Our Duke

 

Our Duke clattered a few fences which he is liable to do which put pay to his chances....Native River was class Wooly..not a plodder in my book and he won the race decisively....

 

Is Our Duke not just a plodder aswell?

 

Would hope he’s learnt his lesson this year

 

Just to reply to a few posts floating around on this subject.

There were two horses in the Gold Cup this year that were a class above the rest of the field. They were ridden accordingly and one by one the frailties of every other runner in the field were exposed. Annibale Fly emerged with some credit.

 

Think Anibale Fly emerged with national credentials after that

 

I know there is 4 weeks and a day between the races but that was a brutal race on Friday especially for all those toiling to get within hailing distance of the front 2. Has to leave a mark for the rest of the season surely.

 

I would put Regal Encore and Cause of Causes as JP McManus stronger contenders for the National and in the pecking order above Anibale Fly. Minella Rocco has been disappointing to date and not sure if he will run in the National. I think Regal Encore has had a good preparation, looks in better shape this year, ran well last time at Ascot and performed pretty well in last years National.

 

I wouldnt back Cause Of Causes with borrowed money after that shocking performance in the Cross Country. Regal Encore is no better in at the weights than he was when well beaten last year.

 

He is in better form though Stick...you saw his eye-catching run in the Ladbrokes trophy yes? I certainly wouldn't rule out Cause of Causes...he hated the ground in the cross country race and will very likely get totally different ground in the National.. a totally different ball game therefore..

 

After the Cross Country no show I'm even more convinced about Cause of Causes for the National

 

hahaha a true conspiracist

 

I am a cynic stick and thought the run at Cheltenham can't have just been a run that was too bad to be true so I'm putting it down as a non trier and have convinced myself the bastard will win the national now

 

If I had to pick one from the XC for the National it would be Tiger Roll. Reopposes Cause of Causes on 3lb better terms and Last Samurai 9lb better. 25/1 generally or 16s NRNB.

 

Winners of the cross country do have a good recent record of running well in the National. Balthazar King and Cause of Causes last year both finished runner up in the National a few weeks after winning the cross country, both at nice prices too.

The positives are that you have a horse that is clearly well handicapped , and who you know jumps well. You don't win the cross country if you don't jump well. So I think Tiger Roll has to have a chance in the National.

Cause of Causes was up against it anyways with the handicapper, having been runner up last year, so I couldn't fancy him to win it this year.

I don't really get the cynical view of his run in the cross country either, if it was all a plan to run like that, and save him for the National, then surely they'd just not run him. I think he just had a bad day at the office, and that would be another big negative for his National chances IMO.

 

Unless of course you could believe that he was only in there to "make the price" for the beast that the yard "really" fancied.

 

Wouldn't be the first time.........

 

Scattergun works again with payoots on the first three in the Cheltenham Gold Cup however profit minimal due to non participants.

Have reviewed prices offered for 2019 race which I judge to be pitiful, especially the one fifth each way element, so full retirement from punting now being seriously considered.

Think I may bring forward the next part of my life .......