Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 22nd. August 2018

Wednesday's Meetings

York
Flat 6 Races 1:55-4:50p.m.
Killarney
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:20p.m.
Carlisle
Flat 8 Races 2:05-5:55p.m.
Brighton
Flat 6 Races 2:15-5:10p.m.
Worcester(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:00-8:00p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:45-8:45p.m.
Bath
Abandoned

Racecards
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Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Lowther stakes 23 August York. This race has cut up badly to just nine runners. As you know I am a big fan of THE MACKEM BULLET she has improved with racing and her last run impressed the handicapper to the extent that he has raised her 14 lbs to a rating of 97. Only Angels Hideaway and Fairyland at 105 are rated higher. Three of the field have only run twice so cannot be rated,so -in theory - she looks a cracking ew bet at around 14/1. Will I be backing her? - well,no!

The last time she was declared at York she was withdrawn,presumably because of the fast ground,the advance forecast is good to firm - add that to the fact that York is a speed track and her lack of tactical speed and I fear that things will happen too quickly for her. Who will win the race then ? one with rock solid form is ANGELS HIDEAWAY she has her quirks and her antics caused Dettori a ten day ban in her penultimate race, however, it should be noted that the winner that day won the group 1 Prix Mornay at Deauville. So,at about 3/1 she is the one that I will be backing .P.S. if the ground was to become soft I will have a saver on Mackem.

 

15.35 York- ROARING LION - 3/1

First of all this is the race of the entire meeting all it is missing is the inclusion of Cracksman (who would have been my selection) and really would have the match of the ages. But my nap of the meeting is in the race. I completely get why Poets word is fav his win in the king George was outstanding his battle with his stablemate was a race you can watch over and over. They pulled 9l clear of coronet who is no mug after winning a G2 here this season Howver i doubt that was her true running and the ground was against her so you can’t take the whole form of that race. Not to say Poets word isn’t a serious horse he is so far he is the top middle distance horse after his wins at Ascot. And that is the key bit at Ascot, course form is vital here chances are he won’t have a problem, he has that classic Michael Stoute older horse improving aura about him Howver giving 7lbs to horse that is also improving with every run this season to will be some feat! Roaring Lion is currently 2-2 against Saxon Warrior who also with his eclipse run seems to be getting back to the Saxon Warrior of the Guineas Howver the stable form and it would take a lot of trust to go back to the well again! Something I will not be doing. Also that day he had the race run to suit he had the perfect toe in to the race where as Roaring Lion had a shocker he lost his positiiln at a vital stage then challenged out wide and had to fight for the win and the stewards enquiry was a joke Tbh I backed Saxon Warrir that day and never for a min thought he would get the race it had no effect on the result at all. But that day The lion showed he wasn’t afraid to dig deep something he will have to do if he is to beat Poets Word, but as I said before he is improving with every run. Gosden himself gets Horses to improve the more they race look at Cracksman last year, enable too but of old Ravens Pass who won a breeders cup. Without Parole has a lot to prove his race at Goodwood was atrocious and some argue the pace beat him but no matter the pace or not he shouldn’t be finishing 2nd last in that field of the Sussex!! But Roaring Lion his run on the derby is a little underestimated imo he isn’t a proper mile 1/2 horse as I reckon it does stretch him. Then to go in to the eclipse and win he is definitely a horse coming in to the race on a up, this his Optimum trip and getting a lump of weight off Poets Word makes him in my eyes the most likeliest winner. One at an Ew shout I do like is Benbatl - really bought to life after racing in Dubai but. was class winning in Germany lto the ground was way too quick at ascot for him. He is rated 1lb higher than Roaring Lion and at 12/1 Altho he may fall just a little short of being the best he is a cracking ew Saver!!

 

Ebor only
Boom The Groom 14/1
Watan 7/4
Wells Far Go 9/2
Poets Word 6/4
Soldier in Action 11/1
Rathbone 10/1

 

I’m going with thunder snow in the judmonte. Although the race is competitive I don’t think it’s top class I wouldn’t touch the O’Brien horses at the moment. Thunder snow won the Dubai World Cup and has won twice on turf in France in group one company.
Cheers.

 

Thunder Snow

Poets Word has set the bar in Europe this season and looks sure to run close to 130 again, 7 pounds wont be enough for Roaring Lion to beat him, he was all out to beat Saxon Warrior who had just run in a Derby the week before and im struggling to rate them higher than 119 for that Eclipse, neither of them look to be improving.

 

Morning

3.00 York-Cross Counter @ 6-4 [Skybet]

Seems to be a lot of excitement about this Godolphin 3 year old

 

It is very hard to summon up any enthusiasm for the first day at York. I am just hoping there are some spectacular finishes...

Aidan O’Brien only has four of the nine in the Great Voltigeur and Kew Gardens has got it tough with his penalty for winning the Grand Prix de Paris. As he was my Almanac St Leger tip, I hope he runs a good trial. Old Persian is penalised for his Royal Ascot win and the Irish Derby probably came too quick for him; however, he is clearly the second string with Buick on Cross Counter again after his easy win in the four-runner Gordon Stakes. Since I think Wells Farhh Go is best with give underfoot, I am passing this up.

I fully expect Poet’s Word to dispatch the three year olds in the Juddmonte International as I just do not think they are better than moderate. I would not touch him at the odds as he could be feeling the effects of a hard race at Ascot the other week and this race has thrown up shock results in the past. I see no reason why Roaring Lion should not again account for Saxon Warrior. It will be interesting to see how Without Parole fairs now that the bubble has been burst and he is just another Frankel stepping up to ten furlongs.

This is not a meeting where Mark Johnston has a surprisingly good record but I have a sneaking feeling that Persian Moon could upset Watan in the Acomb Stakes. Will it be his record-breaking winner or will he already have reached that milestone?

 

A hearty welcome to The Scotch Eddie CSC, one of the top judges in Europe.

 

Couldnt disagree more.... i would pay the entry just to watch that 3.45 race alone. Race of the season. Unbelievable field with the Irish Derby winner 20-1 and the Dubai world cup winner 25-1. That tells you everything you need to know....

 

Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior only beat Cliff of Moher by a couple of lengths.

I'll just leave it there.

 

Took another closer look and have to agree, the Juddmonte looks a damn good race. Don't bet too much nowadays, but will have a sporting e/w on Benbatl (3:45) in the big one. Disappointed that Oisin Murphy not riding the colt, but what the heck!

Enjoy the York meeting everyone!

 

very hard to split the big 2 in the International.
think Oisin Murphy is the better jockey, and there is the weight allowance...but

POETS WORD is the best horse here. Could be very close though!

 

hello all!hope,youre well. regarding the juddmonte,i can only agree with most others,it looks a mouthwatering clash of generations..but i ll decide shortly before the off,what i ll back..

but the supporting card is just as competitive,starting with a fiercely strong handicap.so,heres my verdict:

1 55:

after long and hard study,i managed to take 3 horses out,namely FINAL VENTURE,tanasoq and boom the groom.all three look quite well handicapped,but a narrow vote goes to the firstnamed,who is 10 lbr lower than when last successful,interestingly also here, with this rider,who is 1-1 on him..also were his recent efforts not devoid of promise,and he could be coming back to the boil.i am not sure,if the draw is good,but he can go very well today,if getting a clear run throughout.e w value..

 

Saxon Warrior 6/1 each way.

Think he will be better than last time when turned out quick. Ryan Moore back on board I can see him going very close. Reasonable sized bet. Just can't get the guineas run out of my mind if I am honest and how impressive that was. So gonna stick with the Saxon!.

 

14:40 Carlisle - Arabic Channel 15/8
19:45 Kempton (AW) - Piece of History 5/2

 

not a bad start for me,ran well enough..

york,3 00: GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES

my first thought here was kew gardens,who has probably achieved the most in terms of quality,but dont dare underestimate WELLS FARRH GO here.he bounced back to form in the bahrain trophy last time out,showing a nice turn of foot from the front.could be still lots more to come from him.

3 35: JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL

maybe i am crazy,but i am a big THUNDER SNOW fan since the very beginning of his career,and hes another,who likes to dominate,which is always a plus at this course,so if getting into a nice,even rhythm early on,might be hard to peg back..e w player..

 

well done Oisin!

typical Roaring Lion was my initial pick, but then changed my mind this morning...

 

Boooooom

 

Oops got that a bit wrong