Nor is that Tim Martin guy or SAS chap. Now this is from experts.. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...st-of-a-year-say-government-advisers-11960920 A worse case situation or reality?
Sunday in France tends to be a stay at home day with only a few shops open in the morning, so a Sunday shopping trip is not very popular. The roads in these parts are never that busy, but today they are very much quieter than an average Sunday. I filled in my certificate to say that I was going to buy food, and wondered where I might be asked to produce it. My guess was that it would be on the outskirts of town rather than in these rural parts. It turned out that because so few cars were around the gendarmes were not wasting their time, and after a 60 kms round trip my certificate was not required. So into LeClerc to see what was on the shelves. The first thing I noticed was a special offer of buy 18 and get 6 free on loo rolls. The first sign of anything different was a sign saying that we were limited to 2 kgs per customer of pasta, but no one seemed too bothered and the shelves were full. It looked as though there had been a bit of a run of partially baked bread and flour, but then a pallet of flour was brought out of the warehouse and the shelves were being restocked. To be fair there were no shortages of anything, not surprising when you are legally required to stay at home away from other people. Strips of tape had been stuck to the floor by the checkouts to indicate how far away you should stand while waiting your turn, and when I went into SuperU the cashiers had plastic screens up between the staff and customers. It all seemed very sensible and well organized. Of course the experts here have a different take to some in England, but if a government calls upon experts during a time of crisis, they will be offered a number of choices as to what the government can do. Leave no doubt is the route taken here, while it seems that the government in England has left it to individual companies to come up with solutions on their behalf.
• Italy now has more Covid-19 deaths than China’s total • UK remains on a steeper mortality curve than Italy, while Britain remains far from lockdown.
A statistical note here - Germany is testing at the rate of 160,000 per week, and has the capacity to increase this markedly. So if we presume that this equates to 24,000 per day then there were 3,000 positive cases recorded today. All of those tested would have either had some symptoms, or were recently in contact with infected people. Does this mean that 7 out of 8 had symptoms but did not have the disease ? In which case we have 7 times as many people walking around with the common flu than with the Coronavirus. Is this partial evidence that the Coronavirus is not as contagious as the flu is ? Another study from Japan - which tests in clusters and rigidly tracks down the previous contacts of infected people has indicated that 80% of sufferers did not pass the virus onto anyone else. The unequal levels of testing are giving false impressions - of course if Germany is testing so many people then they are going to find many more new cases than those countries which are testing less - thus giving the idea that Germany has more infected people than eg. the UK. What has bothered me the most is the lack of international solidarity (particularly amongst EU countries) - Germany has 25,000 ventilators and is not actually using many of them so why aren't some of them going down to Italy - instead Germany sent them 40,000 masks. The Japanese - who were geared up for an epidemic which hasn't really happened there have only used a tiny proportion of their testing kits - so why aren't these being distributed ?
not sure on this one, need to understand your stats and source simply put.... Italy has had 3405 deaths in 28 days (1st death 21/02) average of 121.6 per day UK has had 138 deaths in 16 days (1st Death 05/03) average 8.625 per day numbers as of 19:30 EST 19/03 to me that is a far steeper curve from Italy, than UK
please log in to view this image NEW: the Thursday 19 March update of our coronavirus mortality trajectories tracker • Italy now has more Covid-19 deaths than China’s total • UK remains on a steeper mortality curve than Italy, while Britain remains far from lockdown Live version here: https://ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
You are correct, Italy has been bitterly disappointed with the lack of solidarity from its co EU members, notably Germany and France. Italy has had to resort to airfreighting directly from China. Germany in particular is a major European supplier of PPE equipment. 40,000 masks is a tiny amount, a couple of pallet loads, to offer Italy. This will do nothing to strengthen political EU solidarity after Brexit. I'm afraid it is a myth when the chips are down.
OFH, that is one way of looking at it, but if you look at the y-axis the numbers are not linear This shows that average Italian deaths are 3405/24 days therefore and average of c142 in UK it is 134/7 which is an average of c19 the lack of linearity of the y-axis is skewing the 'curve'
The epidemic is just starting, who knows what the numbers will be like in a few weeks time? Every country has a responsibility to look after their own citizens as a priority, how would the German public react if they sent loads of equipment to Italy for the virus to then overwhelm their health system shortly after. The problem is, as usual, the greed of some compared to the need of the many.
When this whole mess is over I doubt it will still be 'The Will of the People'. The Tory membership numbers will definitely need a recount.
You may be right, but I think that however we play around with the figures the countries that have been slow to introduce what some see as draconian measures are the ones that will lose the greater proportion of the population. Italy tried to bring in some tough regulations in the north of the country before realising that it would spread south as people moved away from the worst zone. Today I read that tough new measures could come into force in London, just as there has been a spike in numbers in the West Midlands for some reason.
German multinational companies control most of the supply of PPE equipment to Europe. They have the established supply chain in place for mainland Europe.
Lots of comment about TimMartin wanting to keep pubs open amid the coronavirus emergency. Possible relevant context: The market capitalisation of JD Wetherspoon has fallen from £1.6bn to £585m over past month. Given Martin's 32% share = personal (paper) loss for him of £325m.
We don't know what the political World is going to look like after this is over SH. Some countries are realizing that only a centrally organized state can cope with problems like this, which is why so many countries are now re nationalizing their health systems as a result. A crisis like this can easily be described as a neo liberal virus forced on us by a type of globalization which none of us chose, and we must question exactly what type of globalization we want in the future.
Of course this is a temporary paper loss which will be reversed when things pick up. He has an excellent product which will excel again. You need not worry about Brexiteer Tim.
Unfortunately the golden rule of epidemics is to move quickly Frenchie - there is no time for a 'wait and see attitude' and this is why Asian countries are now coping better with this. The policy in many countries has been to test only those who present themselves for treatment, and have symptoms. This is not enough - blanket testing, as has been done in some pilot areas, have shown that about 70% of those who tested positive were asymptomatic. The first thing which should be done when the first case is diagnosed is that the area is cordoned off and all citizens within that area are tested.