Analysing the 2yos of 2019

I might tot up the number of runs and include that or use it to filter out more

 

****, it's gone bed time. Over and out

 

A spot check showed that races at Dundalk are not included. I expect that means all Irish races are excluded

Does anyone know how many Derby winners had less than 3 runs as a 2yo?

 

Of all the 2yos with a BHA rating of 80 or more, only 44 have had fewer than 3 runs and only 4 have had fewer than 2 runs

 

Sorry Oddy, I don't understand

 

Just a quick thought Ron. Should you be eliminating horses who ran to lower than a certain level on debut?

Looking at horses who only ran to 5 and 2 on their first start seem like their second start will be artificially inflated in terms of improvement. It would be much more likely for a horse to improve from 5 to 45 in a 40 lb leap than it would be for a horse to go from say 40 to 80, showing the same amount of improvement. It is my own belief that chunks of improvement that big is not sustainable after races 1 to 2.

I concentrate on the higher class of Flat racing and have felt for some time that a progression from an average of 85 on debut at 2YO should be followed by a run of 100 next time, then 115 before running in a Classic and ideally coming out of it rated 125. That 15, 15, 10 improvement then leaves the horse to between 5 and 7 lbs further progress at most. The 130 mark is a real hard one to better and plenty if Derby winners have faded away a bit following their glory day at Epsom.

That brings us to Pinatubo, who is already rated 128. If he has improvement to come, I suspect 5 lbs is the limit unless he is a horse of a lifetime. Time is his enemy in my opinion and a delayed Guineas would be against him I feel. Certainly, by the time he is 4YO, his precocity advantage will be long dissipated.

The Guineas is due on 2nd May but Racing is ruled out until at least the 1st May. What chances a Guineas the very next day?

 

The following colts only ran once as a 2YO before going on to win the Derby in the years noted:-

Harzand 2016
Golden Horn 2015
Workforce 2010
Galileo 2001
Quest For Fame 1990
High Rise 1998
Shahrastani 1986
Secreto 1984
Golden Fleece 1982


These colts all won after two starts as 2YO's:-

Kris Kin 2003
North Light 2004
Motivator 2005
Authorized 2007
Pour Moi 2011
Camelot 2012
Sinndar 2000
Shaamit 1996
Nashwan 1989
Slip Anchor 1985
Shergar 1981

Going back beyond Nashwan it becomes hard to get career profiles for Derby winners on the Racing Post website so I had to dig deeper to go back as far as Shergar in 1981.

With 20 winners having raced less than 3 times as 2YO's we have a roughly 50/50 split with winners who had 3 or more runs as youngsters.

For me looking back I was surprised how rubbish Teenoso was as a 2YO and it was hard to believe that Shergar was 25/1 for the Derby after finishing 2nd on his second start at 2YO. After winning the Guardian Classic Trial as a 3YO, Shergar was still 8/1 for the Derby, a price that inspired a columnist of the day to write "Surely this is the time to bet like men". How right he was.

Anyway based on the last 40 years or so, it seems pretty much even on whether you need 3 runs or more, or 2 or less. I noted that High Rise ran once as a 2YO and it was the 7th of November he saw a racecourse, so one could argue he might have been unraced at 2YO and still won it.

Another striking thing for me was how many Derby winners who failed to go on from Epsom. There are a number of riches to rags stories in the mix

Hope that is useful information to someone.

 

So, a list of 2yos with a BHA rating of 80 or more with a maximum of 2 runs. Grouped by trainer. At the right hand side the ratings are the BHA rating for the last run and, if applicable, the previous run. Zero indicates no BHA rating allocated for the run

 

I don't know Oddy. Just finding out things myself. Just looked at Pinatubo and he didn't get a rating for his first run but did for his subsequent runs

 

Thanks Grendel. I'm a bit disappointed that the split came out as 50/50. Makes my analysis pretty worthless. Unfortunately I read your post after I had done the analysis

 

PS. Sorry, looks like I wasn't consistent with my zooming, which I had to do to get a whole page within my screen. I think pages 2 and 3 are still readable

 

I'm really fiddling around at present in an attempt to get a shortlist of horse to examine in depth. Any suggestions for further filtering welcomed

 

Lammtarra only ran once as a 2yo, winning at Newbury. His first race as a 3yo was the Derby.

I backed Teenoso on his 3yo debut in a Haydock maiden, he was narrowly beaten. I was gutted a couple of weeks later when I read that he had won a Newmarket maiden at 8-1: hadn't spotted it.

 

Some of these have run 3 times I'm sure. The BHA doesn't list French races, so for example I know Pocket Square won a race in France on her 3rd start and I've got a feeling Royal Crusade may have run in France.

 

Most likely Bustino. As I said earlier, a spot check showed that races at Dundalk weren't included so more than likely French races aren't

This BHA database isn't as useful as I had hoped, unless there is an equivalent for French and Irish races that I could blend in

 

I think that's a good question. Until recently I thought all winners were allotted a rating and otherwise you needed 3 qualifying runs. Until they reintroduced all these Novice (and not maiden) 2yo races a horse that won FTO either had the option of going for listed races or Nursery Handicaps. So if they went for the latter they had to have a rating. But I'm not sure now as many horses have won one race and have not got ratings.

 

British meaning what? Published meaning what? Definitely is oblivious to some races, even if they are British trained

 

BHA don’t rate overseas races do they? The handicapper in those countries do and then the BHA will look at it if they are due to run in a handicap in GB