1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

A whole new football world

Discussion in 'Leeds United' started by Eireleeds1, Apr 4, 2020.

  1. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2011
    Messages:
    29,228
    Likes Received:
    27,480
    Had plenty of time to think over last couple of weeks and as a bit of a distraction over the c word, theses are my thoughts on what pl could be like based on Leeds somehow being promoted. I believe many of the top tier clubs will be disastrously impacted. Multi million pound contracts lashed out all over the place to the elite for four or five years, won’t be serviceable. We know from this week alone that the players will not take long term pay cuts so without the sky slush fund, which will be dramatically smaller. Many will have a huge struggle to survive in their current state. Ground capacities may be dramatically reduced to comply with the social distancing concept. So much for the 60k capacities and the revenues it produces. Here’s the positive if we’re promoted. Although we wouldn’t get the big windfall last seasons promoted received, we could find ourselves in a very strong position. Cheque book managers would no longer be the successful ones but the best coaches and we’ve arguably one of the very best. Players would be attracted to the style of football rather than the club best able to stuff their bank accounts. Ironic we have missed the twenty years of disgusting excesses of the pl but may return to the more modest and competitive one we left. Just one possibility of course, but a nice one
     
    #1
    ristac, Jammy 07, davy and 2 others like this.
  2. Jammy 07

    Jammy 07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    13,204
    Likes Received:
    20,413
    Much of what will happen going forward will depend on the financial health of the broadcast rights holders.

    This season 2019/20 is the first of a new 3 year cycle (broadcast rights) so in that respect the timing could definitely have been worse. However the next 3 year cycle would normally be entering the negotiations stage fairly soon with tenders being put out and final bids normally recieved around the beginning of 2021. It's almost certain now that the PL will delay those negotiations in the hope that normality returns.

    The current deals are for £5 billion for the UK and a further £4 billion for overseas territories. Most of the rights holders are fairly well known, Sky, BT, Amazon in the UK and beIN Sports, Sky Italia, Starsports, Canal +, NBC Sports etc etc worldwide. All those companies will now be haemorrhaging subscribers with no sport currently available to broadcast. The question is, will they survive and be able to meet their contractual obligations to the PL and if so, what will their financial health allow them to bid for the next broadcast contract at some point in 2021 ?

    My personal view is that someone like Amazon will see it as a massive opportunity and really shake things up. Sky may be wounded enough that they could lose the UK broadcast rights for the first time since the PL started in 1992 or have to accept less packages which would really damage their business model.

    Interesting times ahead but it really does emphasize why this PL season must be concluded and the sooner the better for all concerned.
     
    #2
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
    ristac and Eireleeds1 like this.
  3. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2011
    Messages:
    29,228
    Likes Received:
    27,480
    Some good points there Jammy and a few I wasn’t even aware of as I usually had no interest in the SKY deals till now as we got virtually none of it. Will be interesting to look back on this thread in a few months or years even
     
    #3
  4. Jammy 07

    Jammy 07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    13,204
    Likes Received:
    20,413
    In the short term it's likely that the transfer market will stagnate.

    Clubs will find it very difficult to offload unwanted players and that deadwood will now hang much heavier on the balance sheet than previously. At the top end fees will fall dramatically as even the richest clubs will have to adapt a wait and see strategy regarding future incomes.

    As ever there will be some good business to be done and it's possible that clubs newly promoted to the PL may get more bang for their buck. In addition promoted clubs are not saddled with huge PL wage bills so it could give an opportunity to be competitive whilst still showing prudence.
     
    #4
    Eireleeds1 likes this.
  5. Whitejock

    Whitejock Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2011
    Messages:
    20,641
    Likes Received:
    19,005
    I take a more cynical, & possibly more realistic view of what will happen. I believe Sky etc. will all come together in a position of strength & refuse to pay out on what has not been provided. Indeed, they may even declare a breach of contract, as I suspect the Force Majeure may not apply, and collectively demand that the contracts in place may only continue if there is a, say, 50% cut in payments, reasonably on the grounds that it may take them years to rebuild their subscriber-base.

    Speculation on my part, but it's business, & if it was my business, I'd make sure I did everything to make it happen. The PL & EFL only hold all the aces when the tv companies are competing, as they probably will for the next round. But this round is in place, & the tv chaps can draw all the aces by working together.

    I honestly cannot think of another way forward, and foresee a substantial reduction in tv revenue for the remainder of this contract, which will affect all clubs. All clubs. No-one has the money to make it work any other way.
     
    #5
    ristac and Jammy 07 like this.
  6. Jammy 07

    Jammy 07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    13,204
    Likes Received:
    20,413
    At least by comparision our income from Sky is minimal.

    Hats off to the 94% who renewed their season tickets and who continue to support our club financially at a critical time.
     
    #6
    davy, Gessa and Whitejock like this.
  7. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2011
    Messages:
    29,228
    Likes Received:
    27,480
    And the non uk lads who rewed memberships that well likely never use but glad to help a little <ok>
     
    #7
  8. Jammy 07

    Jammy 07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    13,204
    Likes Received:
    20,413
    Yes to all who have renewed memberships...again vital income for the club during this period.
     
    #8
  9. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2011
    Messages:
    29,228
    Likes Received:
    27,480
    Xmas shopping in our family will be mainly Leeds gear if we’ve any money by then
     
    #9
  10. Jammy 07

    Jammy 07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    13,204
    Likes Received:
    20,413
    You make a very good point WJ.

    The loss to the broadcasters is far greater than some sort of pro rata refund for cancelled/unplayed matches. There will need to be goodwill on both sides otherwise it will turn into one ugly legal battle that will do neither side any good. Getting the matches played and therefore back on our screens/computers/phones becomes more imperative as the implications begin to sink in further.

    It will be interesting to hear players attitiudes once their tiny insular minds compute the magnitude of not playing.
     
    #10

  11. w.c.dukenfield

    w.c.dukenfield Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2018
    Messages:
    908
    Likes Received:
    2,181
    It is pointless speculating no one can plan anything until the virus is tamed.
     
    #11
  12. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2011
    Messages:
    29,228
    Likes Received:
    27,480
    Agree wc but nice to have a thread or two not discussing it and just footie related. We all need distractions as much as possible
     
    #12
    w.c.dukenfield likes this.
  13. ristac

    ristac Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    Messages:
    25,546
    Likes Received:
    27,659
    Without Sports Sky would be finished, seriously Disney+ £50 for a year, Netflix £8.99 a month, Freeview £0.00 apart from Sports why would anyone pay £70 a month for the garbage sky has to offer? If Eire is right and sports are hit for the remainder of the year it will be huge on both Sky's involvement and football.

    The longer this goes on the more people are going to want to save money and I'd love to know how many Sky subscriber contracts have already been cancelled
     
    #13
    blonogasoven likes this.
  14. ristac

    ristac Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    Messages:
    25,546
    Likes Received:
    27,659
    Just found the following article published on Wednesday:

    Let’s look at some numbers. £4.55bn from 2019-2022. £595m over five years. Even the most mathematically illiterate person on the planet can see a discrepancy there. The first is the current Sky TV deal for the Premier League, the most-watched league in Europe. The second, the total deal for the 71 EFL clubs across the three Football League divisions of which the Championship is the third-most watched league in Europe.

    I never realised the Championship was the third most watched league in Europe
     
    #14
  15. Morbid_White

    Morbid_White Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2018
    Messages:
    311
    Likes Received:
    433
    I saw some article on the BBC about this and thought well its not that surprising, given that the Championship play 172 games more than any of the top European leagues, so that would add approx 1.7 million to a total attendance figure based on the Championships lowest average attendance of 10k.

    Then I saw another article in which the Championship wasn't even mentioned in the top 15 leagues for attendances (although these were't all European), and yet Italy, France Germany Spain and the Premier League were mentioned. Now obviously this article may have only referred to the top league in each country, or it may have meant average attendances.

    So I had a look at the various average attendance figures for those leagues, and it was indeed the Championship had approx 1 million more people attending games than Spain during the 2018/2019 season, and 1.6 million more than Italy, so those extra 172 games do indeed make a big difference. On the basis of average attendances the Championship was 6th with an average attendance of 20,181, 2k behind France and 800 ahead of Turkey.

    Because my mind works in this weird wonderful way (even more so given the present circumstances ;) ) I thought I would have a look at this season's figures, even though none of the leagues have completed.

    At present on total attendances the Championship would be ranked 4th, Spain being approx 800k ahead, and just beating Italy by approx 100k. On average attendances the Championship remains 6th, although the average attendance has dropped to 18,585, which means we are now 4k behind France and only 400 ahead of the Netherlands.

    Germany's average attendance has dropped from 43449 for last season to 40,683 for this, where as the Premier League has increased from 38168 last season to 39348 for this. Italy and Spain have improved on last seasons average, France and the Netherlands have remained the same and Turkey have dropped from approx 18k to 16.8k.

    Then if I hadn't already bored everyone ;), I just thought I would look to see how we rated last season on average attendances compared to everyone else.

    Obviously we were only 2nd highest average in the Championship last season, with Villa having approx 3k more , and 9 Premier League teams had a better average. 7 Clubs in Spain, 5 clubs in Italy and 4 in France all had better averages than us, with Portugal and the Netherlands having 3 team each ahead of us.

    Germany was the strange one, 12 of the 18 teams in the top division had higher average attendances than us. Two of those teams were Hannover 96 and 1 FC Nurnberg, who both got relegated had averages of 38k and 40k, whilst Leverkusen and Wolfsburg who finished 4th and 6th had over 7k fans less on average than ourselves. Nurnberg last won the German Championship in 1968, whilst Hannover havent won the title since 1954, and yet both got tremendous support, although this year with both clubs in the 2nd division has seen their average attendance drop to 30k, so they have lost approx 8-10k of plastics.

    So there you go anyone who is looking to fill 5 minutes with some reading, can do so and conclude that they could have stopped reading this thread at Ristac's post above and still be just as wise :)
     
    #15
  16. davy

    davy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2011
    Messages:
    6,108
    Likes Received:
    7,314
    So, 45th most watched club in Europe then Morbid.

    Not sure I hear a song there.....

    <laugh>
     
    #16
    Morbid_White likes this.
  17. Morbid_White

    Morbid_White Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2018
    Messages:
    311
    Likes Received:
    433

    its 47th actually Davy I missed out the 2 turkish clubs that had higher attendances.

    It does make an interesting question for anyone who is bored on here though, what are the 45 clubs that did get a higher average attendance attendance than us on the 2018/2019 season (excluding the Turkey Two) ?
     
    #17
  18. davy

    davy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2011
    Messages:
    6,108
    Likes Received:
    7,314
    Nobody could be that bored Morbid. <laugh>
     
    #18
    Morbid_White likes this.
  19. Morbid_White

    Morbid_White Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2018
    Messages:
    311
    Likes Received:
    433
    Wanna bet, I've been struggling for things to fill my time, that I loaded up one of my FM20 saves, that is in season 2030/31 just to see what happened with all the Leeds squad at the start of the game.

    All I will say is that Stuart Dallas had an interesting time, bought by some Swiss Club for 11.25m, joined Sampdoria at the age of 32 for 4m stayed for one season and then signed for Sparta Prague for 1m, where he went on to win 4 end of season awards in the league, including best foreign player. Liam Cooper played in the Champions League for Dynamo Moscow. Kalvin Phillips failed to win any England caps, but Jamie Shackleton won 1 cap
     
    #19
    davy likes this.

Share This Page