The Systems Thread

As we are in lockdown, the folks at Proform Racing have set their software up to be free to use until the end of the month. So as someone who has been intrigued by Andrew Mount and his systems, I thought we should have a thread on the forum about this.

So, I will start off with a few systems that i've looked at for Southwell.

The key here though is forum participation, so if you've had a theory about following certain trends, lets see if we can replicate the win/loss of following it for the last decade.

 

Dubawi's at Southwell

37 winners from 127 runners in the last decade with a profit at SP of 69.55 and Betfair SP of 91.08

However it gets more interesting when you break this down by distances

At 8 furlongs its 17 from 48 with a profit at SP of 48.09 and a Betfair SP of 56.08

whilst profitable at other trips, Dubawi's at the mile at Southwell is a very profitable system!!

 

My mate who I do scoop 6 with every week is borderline obsessessed with Andrew Mount and his tips page on gg.co.uk. Every now and again I watch him or might even follow him for a week or two but haven't looked into him enough to know if he has any sort of sustained success

 

Piccolo the "true" Sprint Southwell Sire

Another sire with a remarkable Southwell profile is Piccolo who is 30 from 143 with his sprinters at 5 furlongs. A profit at SP of 122.5 and BSP of 185.05.

This is remarkable as at 6 furlongs Piccolo is a negative for SP/BSP

 

Hills - 8 from 56 and negative SP/BSP
Cumani - 29 from 128 and positive SP/BSP (50.61 BSP)

 

It is a really interesting way of betting, and whilst I don't agree with many of Andrew's approaches in terms of systems he creates, its really interesting to hear and see how backing a system blind can return long term profits.

 

Here is one for you all to ponder.

Over which trip is Frankel progeny most productive in terms of SP/BSP returns?

 

Mark Prescott handicap debutants stepping up markedly in trip, after failing to impress over 5 & 6f.

 

12 from 48 with a BSP profit of 14 and a SP profit of 848. That is for all who are stepping up from 5/6 into handicaps.

(that is based on over a trip of a mile or further)

 

Today is a look at the bumper sphere. So lets start with a few interesting sires -

So what do the following have in common? -

Scorpion
Yeats
Fair Mix
Getaway


These are all sires who have lots of bumper runners but have a massive negative in the level stakes results at SP and BSP.

Scorpion has a 10% strike rate but a negative BSP of -238!!
Yeats 12% and -66
Fair Mix 5% and -97
Getaway 13% and -94

However if you switch it around and look at those who are more prolific and have a good BSP you bring a list of

Jeremy 15% and 179
Gold Well 14% and 85
Vinnie Roe 17% and 129

As Stick will no doubt attest... understanding what sires are profitable and which ones are overbet could be the key to understanding the bumper races.

 

Next one....

Trainers of bumper horses

What do these four have in common?-

Nicky Henderson (-56)
Gordon Elliot (-110)
Dan Skelton (-103)
Don Mccain (-53)

Same again, a major negative in the betting BSP (as marked), and although they produce plenty of bumper winners between them, it is a negative if you back them blind.

Alternatively you could have backed -

Willie Mullins (44)
Fergal O'Brien (44)
Joseph O'Brien (55)
Tom George (47)

to a positive BSP as indicated. All again have plenty of winners.

 

Vinnie Roe eh? Loved that horse...

Free money every year in the Irish Leger

 

Honeyball 26% strike rate BSP + 24
Greatrex 20% BSP + 20

 

Coleman 17% BSP -1.44
Sheehan 20% BSP +118

 

What about horses running fresh , certain stables seem to strike after a lay off , while others operate differently, twister often would score first run after a lay off , and its noticeable to me fergal obrien does the same , a method learned while at twisters ?
there are bound to be anomalies , but a few years back when FoB was truly unheard of , i used to back his runners at perth , blind , big prices and often succesful,, .......obviously that cat is out the bag

 

Here is one that might surprise. Horses running in bumpers for their first racecourse experience, with headgear/tongue tie/Wind Surgery -

Blinkers - 1 winner from 10 in last five years - +4 BSP
Hood - 25 from 347 (racing hipsters) - +65 BSP
Cheekpieces - 3 from 43 - -7 BSP
Tongue Tie - 39 from 508 - +51 BSP
Wind Surgery - 3 from 55 - -39 BSP

What is also interesting is Wind Surgery and TT is a negative as is all other combinations of headgear/TT/WS when put on together for racing debut.

So what that shows? I take from that when wind surgery is done before a horse debuts, it suggests that the horse has major breathing issues and probably is one to take on.

The hood one is really interesting, it probably shows that a horse has ability but is very buzzy. Digging into the hood stat next!!