The Systems Thread

The zero runs is Pour Moi whose form isn’t in the database so its safe to assume all 7 were french/european horses

 

Derby - where they ran LTO

Newmarket 19 runners 3 winners
York 22 2
Chester 23 2
Leop 19 1
Lingfield 16 1

 

by trainer

AOB 44 5
Appleby 4 1
Gosden 16 1
Weld 3 1
Stoute 4 1
Fabre 3 1

 

by finishing position lto

1st 65 5
2nd 20 2
3rd 21 2

by in running pace LTO

Held up 57 5
Lead 18 1
Prominent 51 3

by SP rank LTO

1st (favourite) 44 5
2nd 21 2
3rd 20 1
5th 9 1

So what you want is a winner of one of the trials (Guineas, Chester Cup, Dante, Leopardstown) who raced towards the rear that day and was at the head of the market. Trained by AOB and sired by Galileo or Montjeu and run 3 or 4 times in the year prior to the Derby

 

So on that, I would want to see Mythical entered up in one of the trial races (if they happen) at York/Chester or at Leopardstown. He is by a Cape Cross mare and whilst Camelot isn't in the list as a sire to follow as of yet, he is bred to be!!

 

The answer to this is -

Lavelle - 3 from 7
Fry - 3 from 4
Henderson - 2 from 6
Ewart - 2 from 9

 

Any Tim Vaughan horse running up until November in a 2m 4f race.

 

starting in which month?

 

A negative in every month bar May and September (data from last 6 seasons).. A slight positive if you bet on them from 1st May to end of September.

 

Dodgy Donald McCain in bumpers at Bangor? In fact any Dodgy Donald angles at Bangor?

 

Thanks, mate

 

without looking i’m sure he does well there , price is reflected in that though .....

 

A major positive on the overall trends since 2015 - ROI of +48.75% and 66 winners from 332 runners. The fact its positive for every full year from 2015 onwards suggests that its a good one to follow.

However if you drill further down and go by race type (Hurdles/Chase/NHF) then its a stonking rationale for only backing those who run over hurdles where the ROI is 90% !! Thats another system in my tracker!!

 

Today I want to concentrate on flat racing, so any thoughts on what might be profitable and I will see if we can find out some interesting snippets from the dataset.

 

The draw at Chester

 

it might surprise you!

 

So from 2015 onwards, out of all races at Chester (517) how many do you think have been won from stall 1 and what ROI would you get at BSP?

 

180 winners, £60.51 ROI

 

Thats too many winners.Stalls 1 &2 combined 180

 

72 winners in stall 1 & 83 in stall 2

Stall one is a loss of £133 and a negative ROI of 25%
Stall two is loss of £52 and negative ROI of 10%

So in general they are overbet and poor value!