The Systems Thread

However if you drill down a bit more and look at draw over distances then backing stalls 1 and 2 blind over 5f and 6f you would get a profit over the time period.

 

does it do C&D winners at places like Chester and say Epsom?

 

Perhaps what is more interesting is that if you only back those who have had their last run within the 15 to 21 day period and are in stalls 1 and 2 you'd get a ROI of 74%

 

Funnily enough I was trying to work this out yesterday, as i think it would be extremely useful for courses such as Cheltenham too. As of yet, I can't figure out how it would do that sort of search!

 

Do you mean what is the profitability of backing C&D winners when they next run over that C&D?
Might it not be interesting to exclude any C&D wins more than so long ago as they could be less relevant, or maybe in races below a certain class.

Course winners at a different distance could be interesting if the step up/down should bring out a marked improvement.

It would probably be easier to establish the record of C&D winners if you excluded races more than so long ago

 

It would be for courses that are either idiosyncratic such as Chester, Epsom or Southwell (fibresand) so any course form is probably relevant without a filter on time or distance. The issue Proform has is that its not easy to filter out horses with course form in the past.

It is the old horses for courses paradigm.

 

So this morning I've been tinkering with the notion of horses improving for a switch of trainers. So i've had a look!

Flat racing on turf, the win percentage for first time runners for new trainers (so not debutants) is 7% and unsurprisingly that means a negative to level stakes and a minus return on investment to -5%.

However, dig into the data by trainer!!

Which british based trainer do you think has had most winners with first time out runners since 2015?
Which is the only other british based trainer who is in double figures of winners since 2015 with first time up runners? (and a much better strike rate)

If you backed both blind to £1 level stakes you'd be up £210 with a near +100% ROI

 

Flat racing.

 

Shot in the dark, Ivory

 

Way out.

 

Nope, think big yard (in terms of runners) with loads of cast offs from other big yards

 

Mick Appleby

 

he’s the second one.

 

David O'Meara is the first one - 166 runners with 23 winners and a ROI of +72%
Appleby is very good though! - 87 runners with 21 winners and a ROI of +102%!!

 

However its Richard Hughes that also takes the eye, given his short training career. He is 5 winners from 25 and a ROI of 258%!

 

It might be relevant to know the yards from which these winners came and why they were moved. Obviously the latter won't be an obtainable stat but the former may be. If a horse is moved to a cheaper yard that may be an affordability issue and improvement may not be forthcoming. Moving to a more expensive yard and/or one with a good record with that type of horse, may come with a "promise" or at least some reasonable expectation

 

now that is something to look at this evening!

 

You're having fun with this package aren't you Nass