The Systems Thread

You have far to much time on your hands Nass

 

Don't we all?

 

Ok, so of all horses running for the first time for a new trainer, Richard Hannon is the one who has had most horses leave his yard and run for others. I don't think this is surprising, and I don't think many would be surprised that backing all of those who have left his yard on their first run for a new yard would give a major loss on stakes (-15% ROI).

Next in the list is Richard Fahey, who would actually give a profit with a ROI of 41%.

However, an interesting one is a certain A O'Brien who has 9 from 59 in this statistic, a good five percent higher strike rate than the above pair. He would give a ROI of 62%!

You would also get profit from backing leavers of the Stoute, Haggas, Cumani, Varian and O'Meara yards to level stakes.

It shows that when you've got racing cliches like "you won't improve a horse from XYZ yard" it might reflect in the market and be a wise move to back them blind!

 

Not the first fella to say that to him.....

 

Tony Newcombe horses off a long break , usually at southwell , usually big prices ?

 

What about beaten favs , when they were expected but didn’t , next time out , as opposed to favs because they won their previous race , ie bookies runners ...this would be handicappers generally ....can that stat be found or too complex ?

 

That will be no problem for Nass

 

At Southwell - 2 from 28 since 2015 - ROI of +74%. Both had run in last 48 days.

12 from 167 on AW in that same time period - a ROI of +27%. All winners had run within last 90 days

 

In all codes from 2015 - horses beaten as favourite last time out

6818 winners from 36924 runners, a ROI loss of -2%

It is a negative ROI on all race types (Flat, AW, Chase, Hurdles, Flat)

However if you break it down by trainer -

A P O'Brien~Andrew Balding~Ben Pauling~Charlie Appleby~Gary Moore~Jamie Osborne~John Butler~Joseph Patrick O'Brien~Paul Nicholls~Ralph Beckett~Sir Michael Stoute~Tim Easterby~W P Mullins~William Haggas~

are just a few of the trainers who are positives on this theory. One of those stands out like a sore thumb!! The others are good trainers who are probably having horses that are overbet and the other isn't!!

In fact if you back those trainers you'd get a ROI of 24% with profit in every year (bar 2020) with about 900 bets a year.

 

No mate, I'm still working and just for good measure I'm also in bank holiday also.

Good read though keep it up.

 

yeah , my wife is working continually in 999 call centre, while i have stopped going to work on a civil engineering site , the site is still open though?

 

keep up the good work!

 

So the Venetia Williams horses on Heavy going. Have we already touched on this? Guess what the ROI is for this statistic from 2015 to 2020

 

you are going to be surprised then!!

 

-25

 

rural myth , she had a couple of good seasons a while ago , been dining out on it ever since ........

 

-5% but in 2020 she is 2 from 42 which skews it against the average. In 2019 she was 31% win rate with the heavy ground runners, but only a ROI of 27%.

This is a really useful myth busting tool as well

 

Using nothing other than my declining memory I've long thought the Venetia horses on heavy is a bit of a red herring. Certainly if I fancy one of hers the heavy going doesn't put me off, but I've always thought she's more of a streaky trainer. When she blows hot she's proper boiling. But she can also go ice cold too. I don't suppose the data can add any hard stats to my theory though.