Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 3rd. June 2020

Wednesday's Meetings

Yarmouth
Flat 10 Races 12:45-6:00p.m.
Kempton
A/W 9 Races 1:00-5:40p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

14.45 Born With Pride 5/2 (WH)

 

2:30 Yarmouth - Ginger Max 11/2 Win Only

 

Morning

3.05 Yarmouth-Additional

Each Way @ 11-2 [Paddy Power]

First run and a 8-13 Fav to beat...but am informed its possible

 

I expect a good day for Luke Morris at Yarmouth. Its a track where he often has been in the mix over the last years.

 

I feel the need to fact check that

 

40 winners from 391 rides, the expected winners for him is 46.

Its ninth on the list of racecourses that he has had most winners at, but interestingly only below Bath and Brighton in terms of number of winners on turf tracks. His best strike rate is at Hamilton, and then Epsom of all places.

Hopefully he increases his winners at the track for you

 

Morning all.

Just the one for me today Mister Snowdon 3.05 Yarmouth 5/1. Well fancied on debut at Wolverhampton and quickened up nicely to win. Enemy is obviously a danger and impressed me on debut at the time however the form has since taken several knocks and 8/13 looks short enough.

 

I will start taking a bit more notice of the racing here now that we are finally back on the turf!

Best races of the day though are on the A/W at Kempton.

I like the look of HYPOTHETICAL in the Classic Trial and BILLESDON BROOK looks a class above her rivals in the 3.55.

Guineas meeting starts tomorrow!

 

Yarmouth 1.55
The Lir Jet 11/2

 

I looked at the Timeform stats where I found out that he was 54 times in the first 3 from 159 rides over the last 5 seasons. 33% strike rate for each way purposes doesn't look that bad I think.

Good luck everyone and happy punting.

 

So according to Proform -

17 wins from 159 (expected 18)
45 wins/place from 159

both are negatives in terms of backing to level stakes

 

2.45 Kempton is a good race for a Wednesday outside of the festival meetings.

Born With Pride is favourite and along with Max Vega has the best form so far. Hypothetical is an unknown but he has quite a bit to find on RPRs with the other two.

If anyone can improve a horse it is John Gosden but the odds available don't tie in with the amount he will need to come forward.

I have already expressed that I am worried about the strength of the Montrose Stakes from last season so Born With Pride is too short for my liking.

I think Max Vega has the most solid looking form. The Zealand is a test of stamina for young horses over 10f and tends to throw up future stayers but in the circumstances today I feel his form outweighs the concerns as to whether the trip will be long enough. The Zealand 4th Mythical went on to be 3rd in a Group 1 and although the form is mixed to an extent the presence of French Guineas runner up The Summit gives a smidgen of quality well above that of Max Vera's rivals thus far.

On balance I felt Max Vega was the one for today. I trust the jockey will want to make this a test of stamina

2.45 Kempton Max Vega 7/2

 

I fancied Enemy, having watched his debut run, but as you say, that price is far too short. And, having seen a few hotpots disappoint already this week, it's pretty clear that, although it is June (when normally form should be more relevant) we do have the early season syndrome (ie dodgy time to be betting based on form). Hence my healthy profit in the Virtual Betting Shop is slowly being depleted

 

Now you have me worried

 

I like Youre Cool in the upcoming race at Kempton. Has been knocking at the door last runs before the shutdown and is on a good mark. Is a cd winner. Lewis Edmund is not a bad jockey I think.

 

I hope you are right as I have backed his ride in the juvenile for Ms Kelleway at 40/1 (ew)

 

Get In!

 

nice shout

 

Born With Pride and Max Vega need bottomless ground, didnt think either of them were up to classic level anyway, would only give them a look later in the year when its a bog.