The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

Regretfully, had to give up on the 4.50 6f handicap. Crosse Fire got a long hard look, but they're very tightly handicapped here and I just can't see one that could be on a winter bill-paying mission.

Like Nass, I decided that the fillies' auction at 5.20 is worth closer inspection. Putting up a horse that's never started at less than 50-1 sounds iffy, but in fact Seaclusion looks to have a very sound chance here, and I don't think she'll be out of the first two (only seven runners now). Her first three runs have been on courses that could hardly have less in common (Goodwood g/f, Newcastle tapeta, and Redcar on soft); but the Redcar run was in the very hot Two-Year-Old Trophy. She was drawn 14/21 in a race where the first four home were drawn 4/2/7/3, broke slowly, and spent most of the race chasing the action on the wrong side of the track. A little unusually for a daughter of Fountain of Youth, she looks more of a galloper than a speedball, although another of his progeny (Gravity Force) did win here over 7f a couple of weeks ago. If Tom Eaves can keep her handy, she should be able to pick them all up close home (nearly all of them, anyway). You wouldn't want less than about 7/2, but watch for late market moves, and good luck.

 

Rainer, don't worry you've got a sprint over 5 furlongs on Thursday. A proper decent looking sprint at that.

Three in fact! Lucky you!

 

Now we've had a few meetings back on the sand, I think tomorrow starts the real opportunity of betting on the sand. As such I am going with a tally of bets on the thread, with the key bit being not to try and do too much!!

4:45 - The obvious horse in the race is the market leader at this stage, but at 9/4 I think Gorgeous General is a smidge too short. I will wait until tomorrow afternoon to see if it becomes a backable price (if it does I will worry about it not being its day!). This race does look set up for GG, given he likes to run prominently, the pace doesn't look overly hectic and he is drawn well in stall 3. My concern with the price is that a few of these are from decent Southwell sires, and potentially could improve for the switch to the fibresand. I would go with the experience over that though, but I see him as a 100/30 horse rather than 9/4.

5:15 - I am throwing small Hail Mary here, the 10/1 on Native Silver looks big (although the 20/1 earlier looked huge now that i've looked at the race). This horse is disappointing, but that is on turf, and if you look at its overall profile you would say that returning to the Southwell fibresand off a mark of 70 isn't a gimme, you could easily argue that on his course form that is a justified mark and he is unexposed and potentially a true horses for courses animal. He won a handicap off 70 here beating Mister Music and Makambe and that form to me reads really well in context of this race.

1pt Win Native Silver @ 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook

6:45 - I like one in this, will post it tomorrow if I can get a price. I think the market needs to form properly before playing.


The others look too trappy. It is interesting to note that the last race on the card looks set to be run at a modest gallop, which may suit the horse with the blinkers on first time. He is another that is too short in the market though, and with Geography Teacher in opposition, they've got another course horse to beat.

 

I like Optima Petamus in this so thats one that you can disregard.

 

Both Sea The Stars and New Approach progeny run in that 6.45 Nassauboard, how do they fare here with their young? I don't think they are that common among the visitors to Sunny Southwell, or perhaps I stand to be corrected!

 

Sea The Stars is 14 wins from 47 runners which is very tidy

 

Ok, so operating at 30% just about, 29.79% incase Quartermoon pops in for a gander.

Thanks stick.

 

GG in the first , Exalted Angel in the 615 and Sweet Angel in the last , treble just over 50/1

 

Very tidy indeed -
Sire Win Place Total Runners Percentage winners

Sea The Stars 14-13-46 (30%)

New Approach 6-6-44 (14%)

 

Exalted Angel was very impressive that last race. Hard to see what could trouble him today, the only one I would be wary of is possibly Crosse Fire, who has a nice swing at the weights. I'll only be watching the racing so good luck if you're financially involved with whatever.

 

Alas the markets are speaking too strongly on the other two. GG in the first I have as a 100/30 shot but is well supported at 2/1. If it drifts I will have a 1pt bet on at 100/30 or so on the exchange. I can't see that happening though.

In the 6:45 it is the new market favourite that I wanted to be with, but last night I wasn't prepared to take 11/4 or similar about it. The horse Son Of Red is well found in the market and is too short for a bet now. He is by French Navy who has had two winners and a second from three runners on the surface (two different horses) and I thought this one was well handicapped. My concern with it was its running style and as such I had it down as a bigger price than it is. Again I can't be backing it at short odds.

There looks quite a lot of value around for the 6:15 and I would be against Exalted Angel because of the draw where most of the pace is medium to high. I always get the draw wrong at Southwell over this trip, so I am more interested in running styles. Since the return of Southwell this winter we have had 4 sprints and 3 of which have been won by the horse that led from the start, and the other one finished 3rd (Crosse Fire). So I am concentrating on the early pace and for me it is likely to come from Crosse Fire again, along with King Of Stars and potentially Samovar.

Now watching the Exalted Angel romp back, you would be hard pushed to suggested that 10lbs added to his back would stop him from winning that race, but it needs to be noted that he travelled in the best part of the track, with horses around him and got a clear run without kickback. He won't necessarily get all three of those tonight, and at the price I think he is one I have to take on. I can't have King Of Stars given his time was slower than Exalted Angel (although raced at a more even gallop) and I don't think he will be able to dominate here.

So here is my problem, I don't think Samovar is to be trusted with the stalls, and Crosse Fire is just running decent races. So lets take a sidewards look with Astro Jak who I put up last time. He had a horrible start to that race, not jumping cleanly and then being sideswiped. He never got involved and was allowed to coast home in his own time. Today he is drawn higher, has Crosse Fire/Samovar and Katheefa nearby (Machree is likely to go forward too) and he could just get the perfect run into the race. If he starts better and doesn't get left in kickback hell, he surely has to be better than the 12/1 available?

1pt EW Astro Jak

 

Six Til Twelve in the last @ 9/1 - Not sure he is crying out for the mile but he's worth a go here having ran creditable over 6 furlongs on a few starts here.

 

Was poor at the start and that was pretty much game over for Six Till Twelve. Good effort from Badger Berry - Hollie Doyle once again proving she is lethal when up with the pace.

 

3pts staked
3pts lost

Native Silver ran a brilliant race and I am still annoyed that I didn't wait and back him each way, he drifted to a very nice price and he ran a stormer. The other one was awful.

Tomorrow, a very quick early selection

This is purely on value, I think he is twice the price he should be in the 1:33 - Howizeegeezer - @ 22/1 (William Hills) (24/1 with their daily price extender) - 1pt win

This horse has no form, but as such is on a bargain basement mark. He showed more last time at Chelmsford and tomorrow he goes to a course that can help him progress, he is by Mukhadram who has a 45% strike rate on the surface (5 from 11) and I think purely on that and the improved performance (despite finishing lowly) last time should make him a 10/1 shot rather than 22/1!!

 

4:03 - Accrington Stanley (who is he?) @ 9/1 (William Hills) (9.5/1 bet boost) - 1pt win

This nursery is fascinating, and purely because I think they've got the market wrong i've had a bet on Accrington Stanley. This horse has form on artificial surface, he has good sire statistics on fibresand and with blinkers on I think he is going to be trying! I think he should be 6/1 or similar.

 

So this morning now the markets have formed

Howizeegeezer is out to 25/1
Accrington Stanley is in to 6/1 best price

I have a few more through the card that are interesting, I will add to this thread throughout the day.

 

First race match bets

1:33 - Fortuitous to beat Princess Siyouni @ 1.66 - 1pt
1:33 - Cheshire to beat Princess Siyouni @ 1.61 - 1pt


Siyouni sired horses at Southwell are 0 from 13, but more importantly they are 0 from 13 in the place positions too. This includes 8 horses who have gone off at single figures on BSP, so it isn't as if they have all been no hopers.

Fortuitous sire Camelot has a 20% strike rate and Cheshire sire Nathaniel has a 16% strike rate on the surface and I expect both to beat Princess Siyouni here.

 

Match bet - Race 3

Global Humor to beat Nordic Fire @ 1.71 - 1pt
Young John to beat Nordic Fire @ 2.2 - 1pt

Another one due to sire statistics, Global Humor & Young John have already won on the surface and Nordic Fire sire is just 5% on the fibresand. I was close to backing Young John in the win market so I am surprised I could get odds against in the match bet.

 

Match bet - Race 5

Bluella to beat Lord Of The Glen @ 2.2 - 1pt

Another down to sire statistics and course form. I am a bit nervous about this one given that Murphy rides LOTG but given his sire is 0 from 7 on the surface and Bluella has the course form and shouldn't get swamped early (Archimedes is other pace angle) I thought Bluella was value here.

All match bets have been done with William Hill.

7pts staked today. Still a couple more bets that I would like to place but need to wait until later!