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The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by NassauBoard, Nov 26, 2018.

  1. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    There's a very lopsided look to the early betting in the Cl.4 5f handicap at 5.15: 5/2 the 3yo Birkenhead, and about 7-1 bar. It'll probably settle down during the afternoon, though.

    Not much point in looking at interlocking form lines here; this lot run against each other so often that you could predict a dozen different outcomes and still get it wrong. For what it's worth, a recent one between Birkenhead and Drakefell through Exalted Angel is interesting, but still inconclusive for today's purposes. Scott Dixon, who's had very few runners in the last fortnight, is three-handed, and I'm hoping that this is the day for Crosse Fire. This entails a certain amount of wishful thinking: first, that its run over 7f a few days ago was just a pipe-opener and, second, that the booking of James Sullivan is designed to communicate a little more energy to the horse that it's had on some recent outings. My guess is that whichever horse is in the right place after about 150 yards will probably win, and JS doesn't often get the start wrong. About 8-1 as I post (11.50) and pretty much blue across the board.
     
    #541
  2. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Planning permission in to turn the fibresand course into tapeta. Once that happens they might as well close the track, get rid of the NH death track and build some houses.
     
    #542
  3. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    the only fibresand track in country , deauville nearest then ! enough horses that prefer the deep surface surely ?
     
    #543
  4. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    I will fight them on the beaches.....

    Oh, no, wait, hang on.
     
    #544
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I think we need to write an official complaint, should we ask Grendal to pen it?
     
    #545
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Although there is some sentiment attached to the sand track, a tapeta surface is better for the horses and will enable the staging of some better class races (eg Winter Qualifiers). I'm not sure what the implications are for horses who gain some advantage on the sand; that could be a downside, as might be increasing admission prices to what is thought will be a World class racing venue
     
    #546
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Hope this won't lead to the demise of the thread

    Will the name be changed Nass, or will you start a different thread, or leave as is?
     
    #547
  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I don't see this World Class racing venue argument at all. We already have Newcastle, Chelmsford and Wolverhampton with this surface, are any of those anywhere near World Class? Newcastle has a few good races (mainly left overs from their flat turf history) and the other two are hardly a massive gulf of class above what we already see on the fibresand at Southwell.

    Gosden et al might say they will run good horses at the course, but all that means is they will use the course to run a 500k juvenile in an uncompetitive novice race where it goes off at 2/11.

    What I see happening is that they do this to either

    A - It gets declined at planning, so they say they can't continue and sell the course for development
    B - They do the work and sell Wolverhampton for development

    To my eye, this is more about something very different to "improving the surface". This is purely financial.
     
    #548
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  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm sure it is financial Nass. I can't see the point of having spent the money on Wolves, to then close it but A seems a possibility. Had Wolves not been tapeta, I would have thought that was the most likely. Apparently Southwell resembles some of the major tapeta tracks in USA; I wouldn't know
     
    #549
  10. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    as nass says , wolves is in prime site in town , worth much more than southwell for development terms , sadly this is called progress , remember the kempton fiasco with the JC ...........
     
    #550

  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I understand that rudey, but what a waste of money the racecourse would have been; it is also a money making venue, I imagine, with its venue hire for other events. No doubt they have done the sums and will take whichever course is the most profitable
     
    #551
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  12. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    Happy New Year, all you sandrats, and it's refreshing to see that today's programme features three 5f races on a 7-race card. The Novice auction at 3..00 needn't detain us (truly bad, even by my undemanding standards), while the Cl.3 at 1.50 is intriguing but very difficult. So it's the Cl.5 at 2.25, where seven of the usual suspects will be looking each other gloomily in the eye and deciding whether or not they feel like it today.

    Not a race to balance off a pound here and a neck there, so - long story short - it looks to me as if this is Samovar's turn: kick him out, Luke, point him in the right direction and don't sod about, as the Queen Mother used to say.

    For what it's worth, my overheard gossip about the 3.30 is the same as Rudebwoy's. Not a selection, but Mister Blue is apparently expected: quite what a 4yo by the sire of Battaash and Lethal Force is doing trudging 11f on fibresand I've no idea, but I pass it on anyway. Good luck, and bring on the vaccines.
     
    #552
  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Well done Rainer <applause>
     
    #553
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  14. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Very astute piece of tipping Rainer. Morris is very agricultural, but he can get the job done nonetheless.

    Well done.
     
    #554
  15. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    Very gracious, boys, and thank you. My original post omitted to mention that 2021 is not a prime number (47x43) but that 47 and 43 both are. I think you'll find that many of your friends will be interested to hear this during the coming year, and will look on you with renewed respect. Keep safe.
     
    #555
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  16. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    Mick Appleby may have sorted out the apprentice handicap at 3.45 today (Thursday) as a likely opportunity for Lorna Cole. He's only had her a couple of months (from William Muir) and has given her a couple of range-finding runs, both in Cl.5, over 6f (Wolves) and 5f (here). She's down in grade today, and the blinkers are back on. Frederick Larson can claim the five, and he's already shown that he understands where and when to up the tempo over this 5f (on Zapper Cass in a tight little Cl.3 recently).

    No guarantees, of course, and the presence of Laura Pearson getting a lot of weight on Red Stripes is sobering; but Mick tends to strike quickly with his new arrivals if he thinks they're ready, and this looks like a bet. You probably wouldn't want less than about 3-1, though. Keep safe.
     
    #556
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  17. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    Looking at the 5f handicap at 7.00, but this is more of a preview than a selection. I thought overnight that QAARAAT might be worth a speculative interest at about 7-1, but it opened up at around 3-1 this morning and hasn't shifted a lot. The early markets here are getting decidedly unreliable - I put something up recently and suggested that 7-2 might be acceptable, by post-time it was double digits and ran accordingly. As so often, the best advice is to wait as long as you dare, even if you miss the occasional juicy early price.

    Qaaraat is perfectly capable of winning this, although it's never actually won on fibresand (3/41 on AW, two at Wolves and one at Newcastle). This 5lb claimer has ridden her several times before, and the Brittain horses seem in good nick generally. But the other reason for holding fire is the 1/11 draw: not everyone agrees, but I'm generally looking for a high draw over this 5f. Track bias seems to vary, though, and I'd like to watch some earlier races to see where they go in the last 300 yards. If I get a sudden and overwhelming surge of confidence, I'll come back after 6.00 pm; don't hold your breath.
     
    #557
  18. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    No great turmoil in the markets, and Qaaraat still imo the likeliest winner. 5/2's too short given all the question marks, though, so I'll just watch.
     
    #558
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  19. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Good selection, all the pace seemed to be low and I thought that was a nice ride by a jockey who is improving with his rides
     
    #559
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  20. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

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    Not much to be said about the opening 5f handicap today. I expect CENTURION SONG to win it, but apparently so does the rest of the world: 2-1 at time of posting, and even that might be coming under pressure. It had all its first eight races at either 7f or 6f, and the belated drop to five, followed by the first-time trip to Southwell and a couple of pounds off, has hopefully made the penny drop. Brian Meehan's had very few runners of late so, hoping that all is well in the yard, I expect CS to cope with today's 4lb rise fairly comfortably.
     
    #560

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