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The Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Jan 14, 2021.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Steeplechasing's "Blue Riband" event, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, is run over 3 miles and 2.5 furlongs on the Friday of the Cheltenham festival. There are 22 fences to be jumped during the race which covers just over 2 circuits of the new course.

    To win the Cheltenham Gold Cup a horse needs to find the perfect blend of athleticism, speed and stamina and bring their "A" game to a track whose undulations make this a unique test of a steeplechaser. Whilst there have been a number of multiple winners of the race down the years, Golden Miller's five triumphs between 1932 and 1936 make him the most successful horse in the history of the race. Cottage Rake (1948-50), Arkle (1964-66) and Best Mate (2002-04) were all triple winners and the list of other winner reads like a "who's who" of National Hunt racing - Kauto Star, Denman, Desert Orchid, Dawn Run, L'Escargot, Fort Leney and Mill House to mention but a few.

    The 2021 renewal will (hopefully - Covid and injury permitting) see Willie Mullins' Al Boum Photo attempt to join the select club of triple winners, having taken the last two renewals. He is following the same route to Cheltenham as the last 2 seasons, namely the listed Savills Chase at Tramore and then straight to Cheltenham, and he looked as good as ever last week during his annual jaunt at Tramore. Whether so few appearances are for the good of the sport or not, it certainly is a winning formula and he is rightfully 7/2 fav at the time of writing.

    Next best is Santini, who finished a neck second in last season's renewal but was he just staying on dourly? Getting to a horse's quarters is one thing, but going past the horse is quite another. I'm not convinced he can get past the champ.

    Next in most lists are two horses with festival winning form - Minella Indo (won the Albert Bartlett and 2nd to Champ in that thrilling RSA) and A Plus Tard (won the Novices Handicap in 2019) who won a dramatic renewal of the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas to advertise his claims. Minella Indo was an early casualty in that race - his first ever fall and first ever finish outside the top 3 - which robbed us of the chance to measure his progress in open Grade 1 company. Both horses, however, have that vital festival form and ought to be capable of being involved at the business end.

    Champ has not been seen since his RSA triumph and a possible tilt at the Savills Chase was ruled out for him by his trainer the week before Christmas. He is apparently ready to run and both the Cotswold and Denman Chases "are too far away" according to his trainer, who now has the quandary of trying to find a race for him. Is it me, or does Nicky Henderson excel in finding these sorts of problems for his horses? I suppose the Peter Marsh Chase might be an option? All in all not ideal and makes it difficult to warm to his chances in the big one.

    Frodon was a revelation in the King George and it now looks as though connections will go Gold Cup after plenty of soul-searching last year ended in a failed bid to retain the Ryanair Chase. He is as brave and game as they come but surely the other jockeys will not let Bryony dictate from the front and I can see his stamina giving out up the hill. Not for me.

    As we go further down the betting there are plenty of horses who have been well beaten in recent Gold Cups so the likes of Kemboy, Native River, Bristol De Mai, Lostintranslation, Presenting Percy and Delta Work are passed over. I can't see Cyrname, Melon or Waiting Patiently running for various reasons.

    There are, however, one or two interesting entries at much bigger prices that may well be worth an ante post play e/w. Firstly, Castlebawn West at 50/1 who really came of age over Christmas when sauntering to victory off top weight in the Grade B Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown. He never saw a rival that day, saw out the trip really well and with another year on his back he can do better than his rather disappointing UR in last year's RSA. The other one I like at fancy odds (66/1) is Rich Ricci's Royale Pagaille who hacked up at Kempton over Christmas and looks like a horse going places. His odds will tumble if he lands the Peter Marsh at Haydock (potentially his next target).

    Summary: With plenty of question marks surrounding his rivals, Al Boum Photo has had the perfect prep and will take all the beating. Head says he can join the club of triple winners, heart would love to see a first victory for a female jockey so perhaps Minella Indo for Rachael Blackmore?
     
    #1
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021
  2. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Oddy, very good write up.
    I agree that Al Boum Photo is a worthy favourite, but it’s still quite an open contest.
    Yes, it was a good weight-carrying effort by Castlebawn West and further improvement would justify having a go.
    I don’t really agree that Melon can be discounted. He ran a good race at his first attempt at the distance- and his rider made a lot of use of him. Restrained more, and on faster ground, he might have an outside chance.
    I know Henderson was distraught when Santini lost last year. As I see it , he would need to be ridden vigorously from the front to have a real chance- and cut in the ground would help.

    The outsider I’m interested in is The Storyteller. This dual purpose performer reall stays the trip and has a fine turn of foot. Unbeaten over three mile chases last year, his fencing has improved with age. If Elliott lets him take his chance- as opposed to a hurdles target- he could be a lively outsider at 33/1.
     
    #2
  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Interesting point re Melon Tam - quite a bit further to go in the Gold Cup than the dead 3 miles at Leopardstown and the pace of the Gold Cup doesn't usually allow marginal stayers to hunt round for the first mile and a half. I do agree with you on The Storyteller but I was under the impression he hadn't been entered?

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2021-03-19/772586/

    Or are the Racing Post playing silly buggers and only showing "possible entries" at this stage?
     
    #3
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  4. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I am really struggling with this race, you've got a very solid dual winning Gold Cup horse as 7/2 jolly and I should be saying "This is brilliant price for a horse" however I just can't say that I am that bothered about him. He won last year under a wonderful ride, but most people's eyes were probably drawn elsewhere with Santini finishing well, Lostintranslation running a cracker after King George issues, and Real Steel swinging off the bridle much better than most with two to jump.

    You then look at those three horses since and think "expletive hell that form looks rubbish". You then ask - "What good novices from last season are coming through?"

    So they you shout - "bloody Champ" and mumble something about him not being able to jump and that we will probably only see him in a racecourse gallop.

    Then you go to Minella Indo and think "what if" - as in, what if he didn't fall last time. You then remember that Champ beat him last season despite taking the fences home with him in the RSA. Then Allaho which you say "he surely goes for the Ryanair".

    So then you think about what else is in -

    A Plus Tard - Really? Over this trip
    Frodon - He surely will get taken on
    Delta Work - If, If, If - you probably could half make a case. At a push.
    Kemboy - Seriously?
    Melon - Slightly more seriously than Kemboy, but Seriously?
    Waiting Patiently - Ok, nurse!! Please fill up the gin again.

    etc etc etc

    Then you go further down the odds. Cyrname!!! Good old Cyrname. No. Me neither.

    All of this leaves us with one horse.

    The mighty, the wonderful, the nutter that is......


    please log in to view this image
     
    #4
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  5. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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  7. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    I'd have more of a chance of winning the Gold Cup than Melon lads, crying out loud. Hasn't a hope of staying at Cheltenham.
     
    #7
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  8. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Al Boum Photo wins simple as
     
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  9. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    HOWEVER!!! Call me crazy or whatever I would love to see Cyrname rock up here. Once again he obv wasn’t anywhere near him self in the king George. You could seee thats early on. If he comes back to anywhere near his weatherby form I would be very interested
     
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  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Oddy, can you give him a warning for taking the urine? That is clearly nonsense. :emoticon-0140-rofl::emoticon-0140-rofl::emoticon-0140-rofl:
     
    #10
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  11. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Right I’m telling of you!!
     
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  12. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    In all fairness I think any trainer would have been distraught in these circumstances. Two and a half years of diligent planning and in the race your rider is out thought and out ridden by the pilot who beats you in the race by a neck. Must be hard to take for anyone.

    You would have to say that current quotes of 7/2 (and you can even get 4’s in a place) for a dual CGC winner are more than attractive. Not really sure why those bookie chappies are being so generous re Al Boum Photo to be honest.

    As my regular readers are aware I tipped Santini for the 2020 CGC some 26 months before the race. However, I haven’t once tipped the old boy for the 2021 renewal. I’m not for one second saying he won’t oblige or that I won’t end up steaming in but 3 reasons are holding me back. (i) the appalling record of horses placed in the previous years CGC and then going onto win their first CGC the following one (Native River apart it is ridiculously bad), (ii) Santini’s record of just 1/6 in Grade 1 races and (iii) I firmly believe that race for him now is the Grand National rather than the CGC. I could imagine him devouring those fences and that trip in a way that few animals have done before. And as I’ve said before Santini’s owner is something of a ‘loose canon’ so don’t expect him to follow any sort of ‘normal route’. Mreanwhile, does any one know the prizemoney discrepancy in 2021 between the CGC and Aintree (I’ve tried searching but can’t find anything). In ’19 1st pace prizemoney was £150k in favour of Aintree. Has COVID19 altered this either way at all???
     
    #12
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2021
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  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    According to the Racing Post website, first place in the 2021 CGC lands you £263,765.62. I believe the Grand National winner pockets £500,000 (according to this website)
     
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  14. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Wow, that is now quite a gap between the 2 races. Almost £240k by my reckoning.

    I wonder if the other races at the Cheltenham Festival have seen such a stark decrease in their prizemoney???
     
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  15. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    The CGC number is the “penalty value” - never quite understood what this is?
     
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  16. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Interesting that, although Paddy Power is offering “Non-runner, No bet “ at Cheltenham, there’s one horse this firm and all others do not price up for the Gold Cup. No prizes for guessing what that is!
     
    #16
  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    ?
     
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  18. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Come on, Nass, which horse offering non-runner no bet with Paddy would you want to bet even if it had only a small chance of running in the Gold. Up? He obviously feels he’d be on a hiding to nothing, even though the firm includes all the other possibles, entered or not.
     
    #18
  19. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    No idea.
     
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  20. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Envoi Allen- I was wanting to back him with Paddy Power on the off chance he’d run in the Gold Cup.
     
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