The Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup 2021

Im sure they’d price it up for you, probably stupidly short. What price would you want NRNB?

I don’t see it at all, just can’t see any reason why they’d step him up into open company and in trip at this stage.

 

I hadn't thought about it but i suppose 8/1 upwards.

 

I couldn't see you being offered anything larger than 3/1.

 

What price for the 2022 Gold Cup...??

 

10/1 according to Oddschecker.

 

That 2022 CGC market, with old boy Will Hill, is a bit startling at first glance. The only horses quotes are either current novice chasers, those not (currently) recognised as 3 mile+ chasers or horses who have never jumped a fence in public!

I know the CGC is these days, on the stats at any rate, a younger horses race but curious why they aren’t quoting any current open 3 mile+ chasing stars – especially as the stats tell us they don’t, on the whole, fare that well in the old modern game.

 

They surely were, but every horse from these leading yards that win two or three hurdle races is usually accredited with the same tagline, I think Gordon was seeing things at home we don't/didn't get to see, sometimes it pays off and then other times it doesn't. So many of them come through the conveyor belt, a few are bound to not live up to hype, and then there's usually always one or two who do go on to achieve a lot in the game, it depends on what your level of success is judged by as well. If Samcro was trained by Robert Tyner or John McConnell, you would be saying he's done mighty well for them, but it comes across as underachieving because we expect so much from the big yards here and everywhere, I guess. He certainly is a fine horse in the flesh, I can tell you that.

 

You can only beat what’s in front of you is the same in racing as in most other sports , and while RP looked very professional on sat , beating old handicappers with the runner up a veteran is very different from the gold cup , we all know how haydock form is often unique as well , flat galloping track that gets pretty deep , whilst it’s great to see fresh blood rise up the ranks , im not as convinced as some , i was with coneygree , as the opposition he beat and the manner pointed to an exceptional talent , who , while v fragile , had his golden year . They’ve been a bit more restrained with RP in my opinion !

 

I still don't think we have a good set of staying chasers and that is why RP is an intriguing runner. I guess in many ways you can draw parallels with Best Mate and that era, where a horse who is now very under-appreciated dominated the Gold Cup. You probably have to say the same about Al Boum Photo as a horse who most people will be wanting to take on with the hope of something improving past him.

As such as I flippantly said earlier in the thread, you have to dig quite deep to find something that could do so, with the possible exception of RP who you could put into the "could be anything" group.

 

View from Timeform on Royale Pagaille's performance:

Royale Pagaille's 16-length win off a BHA mark of 156 in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock on Saturday has set a poser for connections and handicappers alike.

The Venetia Williams-trained Royale Pagaille may still be a novice, but the Cheltenham Gold Cup – for which he was cut to 12/1 from 50/1 – must now come under consideration on the back of what was a visually impressive display.

The exact merit of the performance is hard to pin down as two of Royale Pagaille's most interesting rivals departed before the race took shape, while history has shown it can be a mistake to get carried away with wide-margin wins in the Haydock mud. A cautious view of the performance has, therefore, been taken, but it's still difficult to escape the conclusion that Royale Pagaille (163p from 158p) is a progressive and high-class chaser who deserves a shot at races at the highest level, be that in novice or open company.

His rating of 163p places him behind only Shishkin (165P) in the novice division, and would be good enough to win a typical renewal of the Festival Novices' Chase (formerly the RSA Chase).

Royale Pagaille's owners, Rich and Susannah Ricci, also have Monkfish (155p), who has dominated the betting for the Festival Novices' Chase since making a sparkling debut over fences at Fairyhouse in November. That would suggest the National Hunt Chase, run over three and three-quarter miles and restricted to novices, or the Cheltenham Gold Cup are the most likely options.

Royale Pagaille is a top price of 11/2 for the National Hunt Chase (3/1 with firms offering Non Runner No Bet) and would set a clear standard in that contest – for context, Galvin the other market leader, is rated 154p.

If Royale Pagaille takes his chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup he will bid to emulate 2015 winner Coneygree, who was the last novice to triumph – and the first since Captain Christy in 1974.

For reference, Coneygree was rated 159p before the Cheltenham Gold Cup and finished the campaign with a Timeform annual rating of 170.

Dual Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo sets the standard for this year's race with a Timeform rating of 172.

The progressive Royale Pagaille's best days are still to come

 

I got bored and it might be of interest to this thread - a little visualisation to show how difficult it is to win repeat Gold Cups and how Kauto Star bucked a trend.

https://public.tableau.com/views/Go...ay_count=y&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link


What startled me when I was doing this was how many great horses have only won one Gold Cup. Its a hell of an achievement to get Al Boum Photo to win two, but it would be extremely impressive to win three.

 

I so hope Frodon wins this. Not much of a price though

 

Just a thought that popped in to my head would you run Santini in just the GCup but not the GNat, or vica versa GNat and not the GCup…?? Or, could he do the both...?? He's the only one of the leading runners that have duel entries so would seem they are keeping their options open for now...

I personally would just go for the GCup then the GNat next year...


PS - Battleoverdoyen & Aso are the only other ruuners who are currently tied to both races...

 

Cant see beyond Al Boum Photo no other horse seems to be in same form

 

Champ ?

 

Champ no chance in my book