The Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2021

Current TF ratings (Last updated to cover racing 17/01/2021)

 

My Ante-Post Bet for this one (Uhtred 40/1 e/w) hasn't been seen yet and it looks like it's going to the Ballymore so I'll have to go back and have a closer look. On the other hand, my bet for the Ballymore ( Ballyadam 16/1 e/w) I think it's going to come here so bad for both sides.

 

A chaser in the making like Altior, Shishkin, Al Ferof, Douvan, Vautour, Champagne Fever and Menorah?

You can argue hes no value but hes certainly not a false favourite, hes a clear and obvious favourite and will take a power of beating. 14/1 about him was the bet, if you missed it youre now looking for scraps in this race. I have Metier at 33s and Third Time Lucki at 25s but im not expecting them to beat Appreciate It.

Henderson is usually the only one standing in the way of mullins in this and unless he gets Flinteur Sacre back on track it doesn't look like he has his normal standard of ammo.

Appreciate it will probably end up about 7/4

 

Speed and stamina in jump racing is a bit of an enigma, very difficult to get a handle on it and not something i want to write about on my phone. As ive said in the past, I think the difference between 2m and 3m is greatly overplayed, its extremely common for nh types to be effective at both and everything in between, the further you go in distance the greater the effective range and the less specialised it becomes, I see the difference between 5f and 8f as more significant.

If you look at the history of the Supreme there have been many Gold Cup horses run well in it, and that suggests its about class more than speed/stamina. Once you start getting into wanting further than 2 miles we are really just talking about different grades of stayers. The 2m4 jump horse id imagine is pretty rare if it exists at all, and the vast majority running at that trip are just not good enough for the best races which take place at 2m and 3m, rather than having a shortage of speed or stamina.

Go Native was the last speed horse to win the Supreme, the likes of him and Harchibald are the type of horse whos upper limit is 2 miles, but they are pretty rare in the game. Its more common that 2 miles is the minimum end of the range for nh horses and in general a typical top class novice could comfortably run effectively in any of the 3 races. The Ballymore has produced many champion hurdle horses, and weve even seen a World Hurdle winner go on to win an Arkle.

Very interesting topic that hasnt been solved imo.

 

“It’s about class more than speed/stamina.”
I’d probably agree with you, but class isn’t that easy to define in National Hunt Racing.
I’ve always felt that, primarily, the winter game is about “jumping.”
There’s been loads of quality Flat horses littered by the wayside because they couldn’t jump.
There was a classic example in the sixties which mystified the pundits and experts...
Thomson-Jones ran his class Flat handicapper, London Gazette, in his first hurdle race at Cheltenham- having cantered in under 9st 12lbs in heavy ground in the Liverpool Autumn Cup Handicap.
Apparently, he’d schooled brilliantly at home and he was receiving
I think 12 lbs from the versatile Scottish Memories, a quality chaser who was pretty decent over hurdles and on the flat.
Scottish Memories led all the way, skipping economically over his jumps but London Gazette had seemed to jump OK and he joined the leader at the last. Try though he could, Scottish Memories had a bit more speed to the post.
The answer has to lie in the jumping and the exertions of one horse compared to the other.
How did one mediocre Flat horse (Monksfield- third in Irish Cesarewich under low weight) and another terrible one, Persian War ( a useless stayer) become two of the best hurdlers of the 20th century?
Simple. They were two of the best jumpers of a hurdle you’ll ever see.
Arguably, that’s “class.”
The rest is debatable.

 

Very interesting debate. There are of course other factors to consider to varying extents eg a simple thing like a happy horse performs to a much higher level than an unhappy one; so the way it is looked after nutritionally, handling, and general relationship with a horse can make a lot of difference. Conformation makes a significant difference to the efficiency of movement; the more efficient its movement the further it can go with the minimum of effort. In the extreme a horse with an "upright" shoulder will exert more energy than a horse with a well laid shoulder (assuming the horse is not unbalanced in other respects); consequently it will not be able to sustain its momentum for as long. Similarly, as Tam has said if a horse exerts more energy than another when it jumps a fence, it will have a similar effect. On top of all that, it is amazing how a horse can change as it grows, in build, strength, mentality (mentality can change significantly with different people and surroundings). We bought a 5yo racehorse years ago and the transformation by the time she had been with us for a year was incredible. We also had a 148 cm pony on loan for Amanda to ride; When she tried him out it touched a fence, panicked and bolted and was almost unmanageable. With some nursing and love he improved in leaps and bounds and represented GB in international events. Just a couple of examples from experience of the points I have mentioned

 

Interesting, I always come back to the Inglis Drever versus Kasbah Bliss rivalry at the festival, and if you were talking about class then you would want to be with Kasbah Bliss every day of the week. He was a faster horse, he probably jumped a little better but when they met it was Inglis Drever who came out on top. That was because he relished a fight, he had a will to win and he battled.

Class is all well and good, but it can't win a race on its own, you have to mix in all of the ingredients to win any graded race at the festival, you need to have stamina, enough speed to stay with the leaders when the race quickens and you need resolution under pressure. If you miss out any of these you get a Harchibald, or a Kasbah Bliss!

The Supreme is a race that often throws up superb horses in the beaten places, because it is early in a horses career and it might not be the most suitable race for their characteristics. This year it does look to be all about Appreciate It who looks to have enough of the required attributes to dominate, but it could be that something else is stronger on the day, be it in jumping ability or resolution in a finish.

A fascinating race currently with the Betfair and DRF yet to clear/muddy the water.

 

“A happy horse performs to a much higher level than an unhappy one.”
Ron, I must have backed a load of miserable, depressive horses!

 

Nass, I totally agree that resolution is a great quality in a racehorse and Cheltenham in particular lends itself to that attribute.
Also, your comment about The Supreme is correct.

 

Yep. More factors, spot on

 

I've given my views on that 'roar' on here many times in the past and it quite frankly does my head in. Once it used to be spontaneous, a delight and an outpouring of expectation but in recent terms it had become a stale 'after 3 everyone must do a half-hearted roar, 1-2=3...'. Big and serious question re 2021 though is will there be a canned version of said 'roar'?!?

 

Matt Chapman, ugh! An obstreperous pina colada. Give him a red cape and a sword - and stick him on the Pamplona bull run.

 

Indeed, "wants further" is just a tactful way of saying "slow"


It used to pay to take o0n the favourite of this race, the shorter it was the more you wanted to get it beat, especially if it's from Ireland. Not sure that's been the case in recent years, sadly. It can't speak well for the competitiveness of the sport, or it's strength in depth, if favourites regularly win the biggest novice event in the sport.