Match Day Thread Swansea vs Norwich, Fri Feb 5th @ 20.15 p.m.

I didn't stay awake for it last night/this morning so had to settle for the highlights.

Apologies for the commentary but I selected this clip as it was the longest one available.

I have just one comment - 1 shot on target (a header) from a centre back, from a corner - speaks volumes about our approach to unlocking defences.

 

Why is it unravelling so much recently? An observation, for what it’s worth, is that Pukki has been very closely marked in recent games. He is lethal when running onto a through ball which is just not happening. Stoke at home next match: we might see a change of formation to say, two up front?

 

In Millwall, Barnsley and Boro, we've played three defensively strong sides who have pressed incredibly well (didn't see much of the Swans game so can't comment). We attack best when we can get our central midfielders on the ball and facing forwards, around the halfway line. That platform lets us dictate play and get our creative players involved. In each game, our midfielders haven't been able to turn, face forwards and establish that platform, they've been pressed into passing back to defenders, or hurrying low percentage passes to wide players.

Skipp, McLean, and Vrancic are our best players at breaking out from that press, and Buendia will drop into central/deeper areas too. We've had McLean and Buendia missing, and Vrancic further forward. Rupp isn't as strong as McLean in that area, and Onel/Placheta stay in wide areas much more, isolating those midfielders. From Farke, I'd say he hasn't tweaked tactics enough to maintain dominance in the middle of the park. The 4-2-3-1 formation has been very apparent, with our front 4 staying up field and disconnected from the central midfielders. When the ball is with Krul or the CBs, a 4-3-2-1 seems necessary, with an extra body to help escape the press - that could have been Cantwell or Vrancic, but hasn't been. Once we've got that platform on the halfway line, the CAM can then move further forwards to join the attack.

I'm not sure two strikers is the solution, it removes another body from deeper areas. Hopefully with McLean fully fit, Buendia back, we can be back to pre-Barnsley in the way the team plays with McLean at DM.

 

This sums up where the real problems lie. Since the re-start of last season, instead of trying to improve by doing what we did well even better, we have stopped doing what we did well and started doing what we aren't that specially good at.
We used to play through high presses with short, swift, triangular passing up the touchlines. We can't do that any longer, having got rid of, for example, Lewis, Trybull and in particular Leitner. Take out Stiepermann, and the remaining cogs in what used to be our well-oiled, offensive machine -- Buendia, Cantwell, Pukki -- are left disconnected.
Vrancic became our super-sub because short, swift, triangular passing has never been his game, any more than it's McLean's game. They look to get the ball forward from deeper with a single pass. Without Stiepermann, who has the ability to shift the ball on to a yellow shirt in an instant, our attacking play has become ponderous. We've stopped creating overloads, and stopped providing the same close passing options for players with the ball. We don't work opposition defences as we used to. Instead we are faced by impenetrable walls of defenders in opposition penalty areas, through which we persist in vainly trying to thread an all too predictable pass.

 

I don’t disagree Robbie, but the result is our defence has become much more solid.

And despite not being as free scoring, we are still in the top five or six teams for scoring in the Championship. Plus, I think many of us have felt our finishing at times has been poor versus our actual match dominance - and your beloved xG actually bears that out - our season’s xG is 42 versus actually scored of 35. So we, on average, don’t seem to be scoring quite as often as we might expect (by actually quite a big margin - 20%.

Now I think we are all agreed that xG is a hugely flawed measure, but it is a useful proxy for how a team is doing on average overall. So our attack isn’t as bad as it might look.

And we are a lot more solid defensively than in previous seasons in the Championship under Farke (and our xG implies we would concede more than we have).

Now I know some smartarse will think it’s clever to point out that you don’t necessarily have to sacrifice your attack to improve your defence. But frankly, on average, that’s utter rubbish - other than amongst the top clubs who are able to buy the top class players at a premium, this is very much a team game and breaking down defences typically requires good/varied movement and taking risks, both of which lend themselves to vulnerabilities defensively.

Personally, I think that a great attack will get you into the Premier League, but on average it will not keep you there. The teams who have managed to stay in the Premier League on a more consistent basis are those who have developed a more solid defence.

It has, therefore, been a big reset in style from Farke. But, for me, frustrating as it is - it’s working. Ok we’ve had a rough patch for a few games, but we are still top of the league. I think, if we get promoted, as a result we will be better placed to survive next season than last. Much better.

 

Absolutely. Perfectly illustrated by ourselves 2018--2020. Defensive weakness has been our Achilles heel for more than a decade and the main reason why we're back in the Championship now.

Unfortunately not IMO. Firstly, applying the same xG argument to defence as you apply to attack, our defensive improvement is not as clearcut as you suggest. For instance, based on Infogol's figures, the discrepancy between our GA and xGa is 10 goals, i.e. over 40%. Discount what can reasonably be attributed to Krul and you still have to conclude that the quality of finishing against us has been generally poor. Furthermore, if you compare this season with 2018--2019, our xGa per game this season is currently worse (Infogol again).

But, putting aside completely the "useful proxy" that is xG, simply consider the fact that the level of both defending and attacking is better in the EPL than in the Championship. Is there really anything that suggests we will score more, and concede less next season if promoted, compared to last season? I don't see it personally. We are struggling to put the ball in the net compared to 2018--2019, and the defensive improvement is actually less real than it appears. True, our % clean sheets is currently improved by 5% compared to the season 2018--2019 as a whole but, like GA, that says as much about poor finishing by the opposition as it does about our defensive solidity.
What other significant improvements are we seeing compared to last season? We've added pace in the form of Placheta, but we haven't added productivity in consequence. Have we improved significantly in terms of height and body strength? Can anyone see Hugill making a significant mark in the EPL?

As carrowcanario likes to point out, our place in the top six is more or less assured. He hasn't told us, though, whether or not he fancies our chances of winning the play-offs if it comes to that. It's conceivable that all three relegated teams will be contestants in that particular shoot-ouit

 

I disagree. Our defending has improved, that’s why we’re preventing more goals that might otherwise have been scored.

 

I can't foresee a situation where we fall outside the top 6. At no point during this season did I think we wouldn't make the top 6.

At present my gut feeling is that the play offs are not going to be a concern of ours, although it is of course possible that we do not finish if the top 2. I am not complacent I just think we'll be ok, although if the current blip continues for 2 / 3 more games then I would have to reconsider. I think for any team that ends up in the play offs form in the last 4 - 6 games if key and generally the play-offs are best for teams in the ascendency rather than those on a downward trajectory. So if we do end up in the play-offs it is far to soon to even consider predicting what may happen

 

I agree Rob, and it's not yet clear in the stats because of changes going on. The Handley/Gibson partnership has had to develop from scratch but is now looking very solid. That Gibson is left footed and far more experienced than Godfrey is a key part of that, as is having far more experienced players at LB. It's still early days for Giannoulis, but he should provide a stronger presence at LB and Aarons is far more experienced than he was 2 years ago and will be even more so if we are promoted to the PL.

For that reason, comparisons with past seasons are of limited value. That also applies to other players and to DF himself. Yes, we've struggled with scoring in the last 3 games but that was against well organised defensive teams and one of the strongest teams in this league, which is why I'm not worried yet. Stoke becomes a very important match because of that.

 

Why, do we want him back from Everton?
£30m.....or £40m

 

Well, as I've pointed out, our average xGa is actually higher this season than in 2018--19. This would suggest we aren't actually defending better in the sense of snuffing out attacks before chances are created. And given that xGa already factors in such things as defender pressure on the shot, and keeper position, it looks more like weak finishing by our opponents to me. It could conceivably be that we are defending so well that very few of the chances we concede are big chances. If I have time, I'll do the math. But I think we can probably all recall several really bad misses by opposition strikers this season (which, in the EPL, would almost certainly have been converted).

 

Every team has a blip during the season - just ask Liverpool - and hopefully this is our blip. Losing to the team second in the table is no need for panic and there are very valid reasons why we only got a draw rather than a win in the previous two games. We are not putting the ball in the net but we now have our best player back to improve the service to our strikers and also create more midfield goals. The strikeforce is more of a problem because of injuries to alternatives but again no need to panic. I am sure DF will tweak one or two things and, hopefully, we will get back to winning ways. As has been mentioned Brentford have got to come here and, presumably, Swansea and Brentford have got to play each other. I can see the three of us breaking clear at the top and I just hope that we don't finish third and end up in the playoffs as the history of the third placed Club in the playoffs is not good. As for Cantwell not being good enough for the Premiership I suspect that applies to all of our squad with the exception of Buendia but that applies to the Club as well. Interesting to note that all of bottom 3 in the Premiership are teams that went up last year or the year before and it now seems virtually impossible for a smaller Club to go up and establish themselves in the Premiership. I can't see Norwich, Swansea or Brentford bucking that trend.

 

@1950canary
Just for info, Swansea and Brentford have already met twice in the league, drawing 1:1 each time.

 

Buggar!!

 

What’s the difference?

 

Agree with this

Not sure if this is directed at me, but if it is, I never said he wasn't good enough for the PL. Nor do I agree that Buendia is our only PL quality player.

 

We've got 3 points from playing Swansea twice, where as Brentford & Swansea have only got 2 points from playing each other. I'd rather win one & lose one rather than draw both.

 

It was not directed at anyone but just my opinion on a discussion point which had arisen. I genuinely believe that the gap between the Premiership and Championship is far wider than it has ever been before and this applies to squads as well as individual players but, as always, I could be wrong.

 

Senior moment - should have read Aarons of course.

Corrected now.