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Daily Racing Thread Monday 26th. April 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Apr 25, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
  2. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Lots of horses caught my eye for today, mainly because of their prices against my expected prices.

    1:35 Paddy Power

    On old form he is thrown in here, and whilst he has had a long winter of poor performances on the artificial surfaces I think he can be given a chance here. He has gone down from a mark of 72 when last on turf to a mark of 55 here. He ran a good race on his penultimate turf start when second at Pontefract, that was off 68 and as such he is too well handicapped to ignore. I thought he was overpriced and have had a win bet on him.

    3:35 Gavi Di Gavi

    A case of form versus potential here. I have gone with the form horse who I think is very overpriced. Has been going very well this season and this should be perfect. The jockey gets on very well with the horse and is a positive rather than the negative it might look on paper.

    4:50 Thegrayvtrain

    Front runner who has been in good form this winter on the artificial surfaces. He runs well on fast turf with lots of good form at Bath in particular, but what I like about him is that he might be able to dominate here. Spring Bloom is the correct favourite but Thegrayvtrain is overpriced and is an EW bet for me.

    8:00 The Big House

    Caught my eye on his return and the form of that race is working out really nicely. The 2nd and 4th have won since and the winner ran a good race in defeat next time out. I expected this horse to be favourite.
     
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Over at Naas Aidan launches Flora into the spotlight.

    Flora is by Galileo out of Moonstone and therefore a full sister to Derby runner-up US Army Ranger. She is favourite for the 4.35 Navan at a general 6/4 and 11/8 but stablemate Loyal, who is also by Galileo is weak at 10/1. The form horse is Umneyaat, who has an official rating of 84 but while there is no corresponding race from last year to compare to, it doesn't seem like an insurmountable mark for horses with Oaks entries to overcome. My worries for Umneyaat are that she has had five races to shed her maiden tag in and the filly who beat her last time was 15th of 15 in the Salsabil Stakes yesterday. Dermot Weld has also been pretty quiet thus far, so Umneyaat doesn't appeal at 11/4, with the possibility that Flora is going to be decent.

    My pick is a bit of fuzzy logic, in that the winning filly from her race was also well beaten in the Salsabil yesterday. The Blue Brilliant was third to Vera Verto, who was a shock winner at 125/1 that day and she was then thrust in deeper in the Salsabil, where she was 80/1. Although not featuring yesterday Vera Verto did finish a couple of places ahead of the filly who is tied to Umneyaat's form. The bigger hope is that The Blue Brilliant was badly drawn in box 17 on debut in a race where trap 1 provided the winner. It was also soft ground that day and the Harrington filly was also slightly impeded. Unexpected at 18/1 last time, it wasn't a bad effort to be 3rd in a huge field and the experience will surely have done her good. By Fastnet Rock and representing a stable just starting to get going, I thought The Blue Brilliant was a sporting call against the first two in the betting at her odds of 8/1. If the O'Brien Fav is special then fair play to her but I would rather have a small play on something at better odds.

    4.35 Naas The Blue Brilliant 8/1
     
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  4. Captain Fresi

    Captain Fresi New Member

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    Greetings! I have been following this forum with interest. Its great to see so many likeminded knowledge able racing people. I really hope my insights can compliment the already stella performance of other members. Below are three I have picked out for today. All the best if you follow and with yours. Cheers!

    Southwell 2.50

    8 Harswell Princess

    Been knocking on the door as of late (recent trip here was a staying on second). Handicapper has kept mark the same and should reverse the form with the current fav (Tom Mix). Draw not ideal however over this trip all being well will be one of the few staying on and filling the places.

    4/1 each way

    Windsor 7.20

    9 Adace

    Has been running creditably in defeat with all races under a mile (including a 6th here last October). This step up to a mile could be the making of this horse. Taken on trust to a degree however Seb and Mick have a decent strike rate as of late teaming up. The favourite in the race does look short enough.

    10/1 each way

    Windsor 7.50

    6 Ranco

    Retains the same mark from winning last time out here (with Callum retained). Won well and looks a progressive sort. Although the price is skinny, I do think it does match the potential.

    9/4 win
     
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  5. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    Welcome Captain Freshi and good luck with your selections:emoticon-0148-yes:
     
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  6. Captain Fresi

    Captain Fresi New Member

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    Thank you Ste!

    You have had some great picks over in Ireland recently. :emoticon-0148-yes:
     
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  7. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Welcome Captain Fresi and thank you very much for putting on your selections today.

    For me Rakematiz in the 2.00 at Lingfield looks to have a nice each way chance at generous odds (14/1). The horse usually runs this track well, is on a winnable mark and his stable had a winner and a 2nd from 3 runs in the last 14 days. Rakematiz ran better last time out than finishing position may suggest ("...short of room and squeezed out over 1f out,kept on well towards Finish"). Todays jockey Rossa Ryan rode a winner for trainer Brett Johnson recently.
     
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  8. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Here betting returns for the first race at Lingfield today (2:00):

    WinPlace SP: 40/1, 11/1, 12/1.
    CSF £198.95 (5, 12), £217.22 (12, 5)
    Tricast £2,640.78 (5, 12, 3), £2,774.36 (12, 5, 3)
    Tote Win £6.40 (5), £14.60 (12)
    Tote Place £3.70 (5), £8.50 (12), £3.10 (3)
    Tote Swinger £19.10 (3, 5), £69.70 (3, 12), £54.30 (5, 12)
    Tote Exacta £153.10 (5, 12), £194.10 (12, 5)
    Tote Trifecta £1,147.80 (5, 12, 3), £1,147.80 (12, 5, 3)

    Phew, what a start!
     
    #8
  9. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Damn good run by your selection, LordGyllene, thought he was certain to win it, then lost the 3-way tie by a whisker. Personally, don't think I have ever seem am official 3-way tie before? <ok>

    (Hearty welcome, Captain Fresi) :emoticon-0167-beer:
     
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    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
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  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I've always said that Paddy Power is a good chap. Now can one of my other three manage to make it an even better day?
     
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  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Aidan O'Brien filly didn't half piss up in the opener at Naas. A Caravaggio half-sister to Fancy Blue, who won the Prix Diane last season, Contarelli Chapel ran green but hosed in by five and a half lengths. Hard to know how good that race will be but she looked the type to be running in the Albany at Royal Ascot. She looks to have quite a bit of size to her and Wesley Ward will have to take a big one over to, as the Americans say, "Out-Physical" Aidan's filly.

    Contarelli Chapel is in Rome and it houses three paintings on the theme of St Matthew The Evangelist. The artist? You've guessed it, Caravaggio.

    50/1 Favourite for next year's 1000 Guineas? :emoticon-0102-bigsm
     
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  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Well, you go against a favourite, your selection is backed from 8/1 to 9/2, then in the race it looks like she might just get up only for a weak in the betting newcomer to come with a wet sail to win it from off the pace. That's racing though.

    Good run from The Blue Brilliant for second and the ones I was against were 3rd and 4th. Aidan's filly Flora is probably the one to take from the race with this experience under her belt. Not beaten far and by Galileo, there should be a fair bit of improvement to come. The stablemate Loyal was 5th but a good bit further away. No Oaks material there but I could see Flora being quite decent.

    Close but no cigar, everything went to plan apart from Party House coming through to cancel the party at my house. :emoticon-0110-tongu
     
    #12
  13. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    All aboard Thegreyvtrain <badger><badger><badger>
     
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  14. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Well done Nass... Good day all round for you...<ok><ale>
     
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  15. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    Some nice darts landed Nass, nice one
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Gents, two from four which I am more than happy with given the prices.


    Well done anyone who had a winner.
     
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  17. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Two excellent shouts mate
     
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