Daily Racing Thread Sunday 2nd. May 2021

Sunday's Meetings

Salisbury
Flat 7 Races 1:00-4:20p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 8 Races 1:15-5:20p.m.
Sligo
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:00p.m.
Hamilton
Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:25p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here

Good Luck

 

Harry Bentley is now riding in Hong Kong, has a chance on this one

9.35am-Champion Supreme

Each Way @ 10-1 [William Hill]..4 places

 

Done a rare ante post bet on the flat and backed Santa Barbara at 12/1 a few weeks ago. The Speckled One has been talking this one up recently so fingers crossed for a big run today

 

Following on from the 2000 Guineas no hoper i've gone with two today in the 1000 that must rank as no hopers too.

Mother Earth & Lullaby Moon - both each way with 4 places available. Both co-top speed rated with Sacred on Proform, Mother Earth hitting the same speed rating twice (75) and Lullaby Moon looking vastly overpriced on form (but her breeding isn't in same league as most). I would love Lullaby Moon to win for a different breeding angle and a cheap purchase. (Sacred is the other top rated - so lump on)

I have also backed Alba Rose in the Pretty Polly, I thought she would appreciate the trip and should be prominently ridden. She probably won't be the best of these long term but today she could come out on top. At double figures she looked too big.

 

Newmarket

13,50 Grand Bazar 7/2

15,40 Saffron Beach 10/1 e/w (four plaes)

 

This must be the most disappointing line up for the 1000 Guineas that I can remember before it is run. Either nobody has any half decent fillies in their yard or they have all been scared off by one of the biggest hype horses of all time. If Santa Barbara wins this as she likes by several lengths then fair enough she could be a great filly; otherwise this could turn out to be a moderate renewal. At the prices, you need to have your head examined if you back Santa Barbara with the questionable form of the Ballydoyle squad – no finisher in the first six in the 2000 Guineas with three strongly fancied runners. With the yard doubts, Mother Earth is also easily passed over.

Both my ante post pick Indigo Girl and her Fillies’ Mile conqueror Pretty Gorgeous are standing in their boxes despite both having course and distance form. Crazy.

Of those with form, the two British trials winners still have questions to answer. The Fred Darling winner Alcohol Free was getting her act together at the end of her race but has stamina issues. Despite only having won a maiden race in four starts, I would be more interested in runner up Statement over this extra furlong and she is trading at similar odds to the winner. The Nell Gwyn winner Sacred looked like a sprinter as a juvenile and was ridden like a doubtful stayer but came good; however, this is a furlong further. Star Of Emaraaty and Seattle Rock have a lot to find on the bare form of that race; however, the runner up SAFFRON BEACH can reverse the form with the winner over the mile and looks the best option here. Jessica Harrington’s colt was involved in the 2000 finish yesterday suggesting the stable is in good nick. Richard Fahey’s Fev Rover looks an interesting prospect at odds if her heavy ground effort in the Prix Marcel Boussac is ignored: in his SportingLife.com column he opines that she might be a ten furlong filly.

The Pretty Polly has thrown up a couple of Oaks winners in recent history but I do not think that Wuheida’s sister A’Shaari is likely to be one, although she could be good enough for this race over ten furlongs, which may be as far as she wants to go. The market suggests her main rival is beaten maiden race odds on favourite Sea Karats, but you could throw a blanket over the first six from that race. Given how John Gosden has farmed this race in recent years, his runner Taslima will be interesting in the market. A race for the notebook.

 

Nice ticket mate. Good luck

 

All over Sea Karats in the pretty polly. Was given a shocker of a ride from the Doyler. Finished a very fast finishing 3rd is better than that bare result

 

Pardon me but what does the form of Jessica Harrington’s yard have to do with today’s 1000 Guineas?

 

Women are all in form at the same time obviously

 

You are right. The female trainer of SAFFRON BEACH is not Jessica Harrington – so I got that a little wrong. I will just go and find my dunce’s hat...

 

Over at Salisbury this afternoon, I can't help but think Mr Crouch and Mr Beckett will have a good day. Last time they were here they bagged 3 winners and a second!

GL

 

Lullaby Moon a non-runner now. Very vexing for any ante-post players with the withdrawal coming at the "Twelfth hour"

I had Pretty Gorgeous at 20/1 from a long time ago and had expected that she would start no bigger than 4/1. Looking at Santa Barbara drifting and the stamina question Alcohol Free closing in at 10/3, I feel Pretty Gorgeous may have started favourite today. She is missing because she scoped badly and that is galling but with the way Joseph's Thunder Moon ran yesterday, confidence would have been dented.

My worry with Alcohol Free is that most of her main rivals in the Fred Darling stank the place out on the day. The ratings person in the Racing Post had to get creative trying to make the figures fit and I am concerned as to whether is was a good trial. If Alcohol Free does win, I will have had the amazing feat, again, of tipping her up the only time she was beaten, when second in the Dick Poole at 13/2 to Happy Romance.

Aidan O'Brien has had a terrible time in Britain this season, with most of his colts putting in feeble efforts. It was felt at the time that these were second string horses sent to feel out the opposition but his best colts surely ran in yesterday's 2000 Guineas and they were very disappointing. Perhaps the fillies will do better today but Santa Barbara has plenty to find from here sole start and Mother Earth has a similar profile to Wembley in that she has only 1 win so far in several starts. At least she has won a Group 3 though and she did exceed expectations when 3rd in the Fillies Mile. I wouldn't read much into her Breeders Cup 2nd, as the race hasn't worked out well at all, with winner Aunt Pearl unplaced as 1/4 Fav on Friday night. Both fillies are pretty weak in the betting today.

I ended up doing Saffron Beach just to have some interest. She is capable of reversing form with Sacred in my opinion. The Haggas filly was busy last season and looks exposed to some extent and I worry for her at the mile trip today. The stable form is a concern with 0/5 this past fortnight but these were all very modest rated runners and this filly is 112 from her three runs at Newmarket so the track is no concern and I feel the step up to a mile will help.

Statement and Fev Rover may have a shout each-way.

3.40 Newmarket Saffron Beach 9/1 was my play.

Good luck to all today.

 

The Group 1 Prix Ganay is perhaps not as interesting or competitive as some renewals. I have decided to play against Mogul, who is odds-on today.

Mogul was a bit in and out last season, with a couple of really good looking performances but generally operating at a bit lower level. He was favourite behind Mishriff last time but only 7th in a performance a good bit shy of his peak in winning at Shatin. He will probably be hard to beat if he fires but several times last season he looked a bit shy of top class and the stable have had a few disappointments of late.

I went with Magny Cours, who seems more consistent since he was gelded. On Racing Post figures he is 6 lbs behind Mogul and he was well beaten when 3rd in the Dubai World Cup but that was on Fast Dirt and he's on good to soft turf today.

I felt the Fabre horse was a reasonable play at 5/2.

3.15 Longchamp Magny Cours 5/2

 

Queen Power was runner up in the Dahlia last year but the race has worked out terribly since. She could do with winning more often given her odds today.

Lavender's Blue ran in the Oaks as a 3YO but patently didn't stay. I would have said she was a tad short of the class for this but it's not a strong renewal. She has fitness on her side and I thought she would run a very solid race at 3/1.

3.00 New Lavender's Blue 3/1

 

Well done Oddy; and with the 2000Gns winner