Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 5th. May 2021

Wednesday's Meetings

Newton Abbot
N/H 8 Races 1:00-4:40p.m.
Kelso
N/H 7 Races 1:20-4:35p.m.
Chester
Flat 7 Races 1:45-4:45p.m.
Gowran(E)
Flat 8 Races 4:25-8:00p.m.
Fontwell(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:50-7:50p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:10-8:10p.m.

Racecards
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Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here

Good Luck

 

Sun shining here in the North West, probably won’t affect the ground too much at Chester.
Little Ew Lucky 15 for me and a couple singles win.
1.45 Devious Angel
2.15 Nicest
2.45 First Company
3.45 Pivoting
Have a good day fellas, good luck with yours

 

Happy low draw day!!

Chester 5 furlong races since 1994 - 40% of races have been won from inside two stalls, with both stalls returning a profit against BSP.

1.45 Navello/Devious Angel in the Lily Agnes - One goes forward and the other comes from off the pace.
2.45 - First Company/Imperial Force - Bigger prices than you might expect in a sprint handicap from inside stalls.

Six furlong stats are very similar so Major Jumbo looks an obvious one. However his price has gone.


However the best low draw stat for me is stall one at Kempton over 5 and 6 furlongs, but its one I need my selection to overcome.

8.10 The Nosey Parker is overpriced against the even priced favourite.

 

Kelso 3.25 Ballyvic Borou

3 respctable efforts last autumn. Has run well at this time of the year in the past (form when running in May reads 21224). Stable amongst the winners recently on the flat and has a good record for each way purposes in Kelso handicaps over fences and hurdles.

 

My main two bets today are both at Kempton

6.40 Espresso Freddo - Well drawn = surprise surprise - This horse has very good course form despite only having one win from eleven visits. The thing I like about him tonight is the shape of the race should suit him and from his inside draw he should get a nice tow into the race and then just needs the breaks to get involved in the finish.

7.10 Sanaadh - Well drawn etc - I just think this horse is massively overpriced. He has raced at the course twice and has one very good win and a very taking second place. He was given far too much to do at Newmarket last time and I don't think he is a turf horse anyway. Before that run he raced a decent effort at Newcastle (one of the two horses from off the pace that made any ground) and before that he had a very good Kempton run. I've split my stake on Win, 2 places and 3 place markets.

 

A weak Vase it seems. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the current outsider Pleasant Man pull off a surprise.

 

Hard to see beyond the favourites at Chester, but the money is coming for Fancy Man in the Vase, so I'll follow that. Good luck all.

 

the betting suggests that it should be a day for the favourites at Chester - two that I particularly like the look of are Devious Angel in the opener and Uncle Jumbo in the 3.45.

the Vase though looks quite open - I am unsure about the favourite. the form seems to be working out for Fancy Man so probably the value call in this

 

No time to study but at Chester
Zeyaadah
Showalong
Law Of The Sea
Kingsofthemidlands

 

Sorry if this is a stupid question but can I do a straight tri-cast with only 6 runners? EW gives first 2 only and I have bad memories of predicting the first 3 in a small field and being told (after they came in the correct order) that the tote was only paying 1 and 2 forecast. Advice gratefully received!

 

Disappointing fields at Chester.

I did Yibir ante post in the Vase based on Charlie Appleby stating that it was the colt's target because he needed the longer trip. In the end they sent Wirko instead and Yibir goes to the Dee Stakes over the 2F shorter trip. Maybe the horse has got faster in the space of 5 days but I reckon I could have been sitting with 4/1 on a colt sitting at evens today but that's the gamble with ante-post. I wouldn't mind so much but the statement of intent from a stable should mean something surely, lest punters feel they are getting put away.

Anyway, not touching the race now.

I came up with a real old cuddy for the bet today. Sir Maximilian is a real veteran at 12 but he is a horse who has a good strike rate on turf. He has won 11 of his 58 races on the surface but only won once on the all weather. He has been a rank outsider of late but ran a bit better back on turf last time when 6th at 100/1 odds. He has won four times at Chester and twice over C&D, His last win was off 89 and he runs today off 84. This is the lowest grade he has run in for a very long time and he was rated 112 in his pomp. With the stable in form and coming out of trap 2 I felt he had plenty going for him. The market seems negative about his chances but I went with him today.

Lincoln Park is popular in the betting but is in box 11.

4.45 Chester Sir Maximilian 7/1

Come on the pensioner. (Ooh err missus)

 

Use the tote and you'll get the trifecta...

 

not a bad start Reebs

 

Not unusual I suppose, 3 from 3.
Is it really good to soft out there today?

 

its hard enough trying to predict the winner, let alone the first two!
As for first three
Well how close did you get ?

 

Well, Charlie Appleby took Yibir out and left Wirko in. Yibir was said to have needed the 12F and Wirko went out there and didn't stay a yard of it, weakening into a well beaten 4th. The ITV team got a bit enthused about Pleasant Man, noting how shrewd Jason Weaver was as a tipster but the colt stank the place out. Roger Charlton is having a pretty awful season and once again the Guineas came and went without any of his inmates taking part. Gosden's Law Of The Sea was all at sea on the ground and the trainer had noted he was more of a Leger sort.

This looked unlikely to have any impact on the Derby and Wirko was probably Appleby's weakest candidate.

Fancy Man and winner Youth Spirit paid compliments to Mohaafeth on lines from the Feilden form.

 

Well that's something I suppose