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Epsom Oaks, Friday 4th June 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Mar 24, 2021.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I fancy Indigo Girl for the Oaks at 16/1
     
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  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    In some ways the same caveat regarding whether she is simply good enough has to apply Ron. If she wins the Guineas her price will collapse for the Oaks and 16/1 would look a good investment. There is still that concern about any horse fast enough to win a Guineas then staying the extra half mile.

    Love managed the double last season but that Oaks was the poorest I can recall for a very long time. Love was the best filly by a long way and the runner up Ennistymon suffered a few similar or worse pastings when failing to score in six subsequent outings.

    My feeling is that an unraced filly will probably emerge and become one of the leading lights for Epsom. I will be keeping an eye out for such possible canidates and may play for the Oaks prior to their seasonal debut because the value will likely be gone if they make a winning debut. For now I have Pretty Gorgeous at 40/1. She has obvious stamina questions but if she were to win the Guineas she would be skinny for the Oaks and would then be a useful ticket to hold in reserve. It looked last year that she might be a 10F filly in waiting and many have cited that as a reason to oppose her in the Guineas. She may fall between the two stools but it's a starting point for both races as we await the new faces this year.

    I would rather take 16/1 Santa Barbara for the Oaks than 3/1 for the Guineas though. I will get a closer look at the Oaks and potential unraced fillies who could come into the picture in the couple of months.
     
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  3. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Have a few quid on Willow for the Oaks at 40/1, American Pharoah out of Peeping Fawn, she looked very strong at the finish of her mile maiden win at the 3rd attempt. These Coolmore American Pharoahs are looking tremendous prospects physically and he had the Park Hill winner last year so he will produce proper middle distance types, he was the best horse in America probably since Secretariat, and I think Coolmore are going to get a lot of success from him with their Danehill, Saddlers Wells and Galileo mares. Theyve excelled on soft ground so far as 2yos but its possible that its the stamina test rather than the ground that played to their strengths. I think Van Gogh(out of Oaks winner Imagine) and Willow are his two best middle distance prospects this season, Queen Speech also looks a top class prospect but she has the US dam side being out of a Spieghtstown mare so she wont be winning the Oaks despite being half the price of Willow, she might be one for the Irish 1000 Guineas.
     
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  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Teona is another interesting one for the Oaks for Roger Varian, by Sea The Stars out of the quirky 10f G1 winner Ambivalent, she bumped into Sea Empress on debut who looks likely to be Haggas best 3yo filly, and pretty much matched her but was boxed in at a vital stage while Sea Empress showed her gears. Looked a strong maiden with those two pulling well clear and Teona won half the track next time out at 10f. I think she is one of the major English players for the race, im on at 66s but 20s is still fair enough I suppose given her credentials, although Roger Varians record at the classic level is not great, with the backing he gets he will need to start delivering more in the top races.
     
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Of the big prices, Michael Stoute's Noon Star makes appeal on breeding, being by Galileo out of Midday. A debut 3rd over 7F was followed by a comfortable win when stepped up to a mile and the runner up landed a minor race next time. She will need improvement for sure but when she steps up to 10F we may see her in a much better light. I've had a small interest at 33/1 with William Hill. The breeding and trainer will ensure that money will come if she makes a winning reappearance this season.

    Oaks Noon Star 33/1 to go with Pretty Gorgeous at 40/1.
     
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  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Indigo Girl won the May Hill and the first five home all ran behind Pretty Gorgeous in the Fillies Mile next time, with Indigo Girl doing best. The Gosden filly is a full sister to Journey, who certainly stayed well enough and whose career is probably best remembered for three runs in the fillies and mares champion race at Ascot. Collared by Simple Verse in her first attempt, she then won easily the following season before then being unplaced behind Hydrangea when trying to bring up the double in her final career start.

    Indigo Girl seems more precocious than Journey, who took time to get her career on track, and then improved quite a lot with age. The question will be how much Indigo Girl can progress from two to three. Journey went from 76 on official ratings in May, to running in the fillies and mares with a mark of 113. Indigo Girl is already rated 112 on official figures and clearly hasn't got the 37 lbs improvement that Journey had unless she is capable of a world record rating of 149 come season's end! On the plus side 7-10 lbs improvement would be enough to put her into Oaks winning territory in an average season.

    Hand in heart I would say 10F might be ideal for Indigo Girl but she is way better value at 16/1 than a maiden winner at 5/1 in my opinion. Santa Barbara could well be between Evens and 6/4 if she wins the Guineas but I would rather have done my money to smaller stakes at big odds, with so many imponderables at this stage.
     
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  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Video link:-

     
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  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Noon Star won well at Wetherby today. It wasn't a strong race but the further they went the better she looked. You would think she can only come forward from this and it looked like the Oaks trip would be right up her street. Generally 12/1 and 14/1 for the Oaks now. Happy enough with a ticket on her at 33/1 in a weak looking year so far.
     
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  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Shocking run from Willow today, Obrien said she would need the run but there seemed to be plenty of confidence behind her in the Oaks market and in the betting today. She didnt raise a gallop and now looks a longshot for the Oaks. I guess the only slither of hope is that lot of his horses are running badly right now and she is a big horse who probably needs a few runs to get fit but she will need to step forward massively next time.

    Noon Star is on my 3yo list but I didnt back her for the Oaks due to Stoutes recent classic record and getting burned by a few of his, just wasnt convinced she was quite top class on the Nottingham win but her debut was very promising and the pedigree is there. It was a good start for her today, suspect she will be well fancied for the Musidora now and we'll find out her level there. Shes probably still decent value actually at 14s while there are so few legit contenders and she will be under half of that if she wins at York.

    My hope now mainly with Teona for Roger Varian, gave her a good mention in his stable tour and planning to run either at York or Newbury, Id prefer Newbury as a trial, neither York or Newbury have been particularly strong pointers to the Oaks in the last decade but I think the Newbury race has produced more. Like Noon Star, there is the same concern for Teona with Varian not delivering in classics, but at 66/1 they are certainly factored in.
     
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  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Racing Post gave Mother Earth 113 for her win. Saffron Beach received 111, which is 6 lbs higher than her OR coming in.

    Mother Earth is 8/1 and 10/1 for the Oaks now. As a daughter of Zoffany out of a Green Desert mare you would think there is little to no chance of getting 12F.

    Santa Barbara was shortened by some firms and left alone by others at 7/2. Still a bit to consider for her having to step up another half mile in a hurry after what looked a weak Guineas so I wouldn't be playing at the odds. Her 110 RPR for the Guineas leaves her well ahead of Noon Star on 100 and Teona on 91 though and those two need to come forward a fair bit to be involved.

    Teona won by nine lengths on her second start but she was 1/3 Fav that day and didn't have to improve on her debut second. Obviously open to plenty of improvement but the nag is the lack of success from the Varian stable in the Classics, considering the ammunition he gets.

    Noon Star needs to find a stone by Oaks day but she is going the right way. I suspect that she might just fall short on class but when you back a horse at 33/1 ante-post you know there are going to be questions and that you need a bit of luck in finding that one who will improve and perhaps stay better than the slightly classier fillies.
     
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  11. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I thought Dubai Fountain was a solid outsider for the Guineas but it sounds like they didnt give it much thought and were always going straight up in the distance with her, she wasnt far behind Mother Earth in the Fillies Mile and had every right to run at Newmarket.

    Zeyaadah looked very promising in an unbeaten 2yo campaign and seems to have been given more credit from the race today after having to wait for a run and carrying a 3 pound penalty, but I suspect the Johnson horse will beat her again at the stiffer Epsom test off levels and I think she is nailed on top 4 but will probably come up short on class to win it.

    The run of Zeyaadah is encouraging for the stable if they do in fact have a better Oaks filly in Teona, it gives them a nice line to a pretty high level of form in the context of the race with Dubai Fountain rated 110, and Teona is now clear 2nd fav on Betfair without being seen on a racecourse. Although we seen what happened when that assumption was made about One Ruler over Master Of The Seas.

    Hopefully we see the real Willow at Lingfield on Saturday after her terrible first run, she will have to go close to winning that race to even justify going to Epsom.
     
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  12. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    The Chester winner has a good Epsom pedigree, that's for sure.
     
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  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Just having a look at the Oaks betting. I can't see why Mother Earth is 2nd fav. Surely on pedigree will not be top class at 12f

    I fancied Indigo Girl at 16s in March. By Dubawi out of a Montjeu mare, looks a decent pedigree for 12f. Still 16s and has not raced at 3. If she goes straight to the Oaks that would now be a worry. Beat Dubai Fountain in Sept. running green, and again when behind Pretty Gorgeous on soft ground, with Mother Earth 3rd

    Others I find interesting at decent prices are the unbeaten pair Sea Empress at 25/1 and Twisted Reality at 50/1, and Surely at 33/1. Unfortunately, like Indigo Girl, none of these have been out this year so no idea how they have trained on

    Sea Empress. Winner of her only race as a 2yo "Dwelt start, towards rear in centre of group, smooth headway to lead over 1f out, pushed along and clear with one other inside final furlong, ran on well final 110yds, promising" had none other than Teona behind on her only run "no match for winner"
    A Sea The Stars colt she has speed on her dam side, but also Ribot. Trainer has Mohaafeth in the Derby and also has Sea Karats in the Oaks. Jockey choice should provide a clue to how ready Sea Empress is

    Twisted Reality is another one raced winner at 2 "Slowly away, in rear and ran green, pushed along and headway over 1f out, led inside final 110yds, ran on, comfortably". Sire was champion Australian sprinter but she is out of a Galileo mare. Obviously expected to stay 12f as she is also entered in the Ribblesdale. Concern that the trainer doesn't seem to have had any runners this season that may have given a clue

    Surely, Galileo filly, simply just caught my eye. Nice name, 5th on debut, running green. Never know with an A P O'Brien outsider
     
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  14. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    What you do with the Oaks is look at the first horse in the betting. Then stop and worry about a different race.
     
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    <laugh> Oh bugger, just wasted 20 minutes
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    <laugh> at least you had fun. For me that run in the Guineas was as good a prep as you could get for the Oaks without actually winning the Guineas.
     
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  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Yea I suppose. Only beaten 1¼l and ran green, in a classic, however poor it was.

    That 4 by her name brings back memories of Meld who had a 4 before her name and won the fillies' triple crown. Showing my age again
     
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  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I think it was a decent renewal of the fillies Guineas, the front five all look pretty useful fillies, with Fev Rover potentially the one who was well placed and got the optimal ride. Not an exceptional field, but I thought it was a good enough race.
     
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  19. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Obrien has never won the Oaks with a filly beaten in the Guineas, and I dont think Santa Barbara will stay well enough, the pedigree looks good at a glance, Camelot out of a Danehill mare, but most of the mares offspring have done best at a mile, Order Of Australia scraped in a 12f maiden but was found out in the Irish Derby and produced a career best in the BC Mile. Iridessa is another one who looked a candidate for 12f but similarly she was found out in the Irish Oaks before dropping back to win the Matron at 8f and the BC Filly and Mares at 9.5f.

    They were both by Derby winners in Australia and Ruler Of The World so I dont think she is a certain stayer, shes been beaten in a poor Guineas by 105-110 horses and again she is priced up for a G1 Classic on hype, which makes her a very easy pass. Think the time to back her will be when she drops back after the Oaks and she will probably win a G1 at some point this season.

    Edit: Wrong on the first one, Qualify won the Oaks at 50/1 after being beaten 40L in the Guineas, think thats the only 1.
     
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    Last edited: May 6, 2021
  20. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Betting up the Musidora, some difference in opinion, 365 have Sea Empress at 5/2 fav while Paddy Power have her at 9/2, she does not have a jockey booked while the other two do suggesting Sea Empress may go to Newbury instead. Paddy Power have cut Teona to 2/1 fav but these are the best prices at the minute.

    Noon Star 3/1
    Teona 10/3
    Sea Empress 9/2
     
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