Epsom Derby, Saturday 5th June 2021

For info. from the Australian Daily Telegraph 2017
'' JOCKEY Edgar Britt, who died over the weekend at age 103, was particularly noteworthy for two things. Britt is part of the Australian vanacular; his surname is the subject of a rhyming slang that had made people smirk for over half a century. More importantly, Britt was one of Australia’s greatest jockey trailblazers. Britt won over 2000 races in four continents, from the early 1930s until his retirement in 1959.He is one of just 39 jockeys in the Australian Hall Of Fame and could easily be a “HOF” in other parts of the world. Britt was 16 when he rode his first winner at Canterbury in 1930, the year Phar Lap won the Melbourne Cup.
He rode for the world’s elite, including an indian “Maharajah’’ and in England as stable jockey for King George VI from 1948. His European winners included two St Legers, the Oaks, 1000 and 2000 Guineas, as well as an Irish Derby. In 14 years in England Britt won 1400 races. Racing NSW chief Executive Peter V’landys AM described Britt as “an Australian treasure.’’

Although Australians use rhyming slang it is usually regarded as the speciality of Londoners, specifically cockneys and it will not have taken much for them to pick up on the possibilities especially after he won two Classics on Musidora in 1949. Much superior provenance to Eartha Kitt I'd think. Any Londoner will out you anyway if you use the part that rhymes. Londoners will immediately know what you mean if you say ' Read the linens down at the battle while having an Edgar and decided to have a deep sea on the favourite in the first at Ally Pally'.

 

I have backed two in the Derby ante post and really mostly for fun off the back of Mother Earth winnings (cheers Boris).
I purely went through the pedigrees and ticked the horses I thought most likely to be suited by the trip. You can rip this to shreds but the two I ended up backing were WORDSWORTH (16/1) and HURRICANE LANE (25/1). They could both meet in the Dante which would not be ideal.

 

Couple of form lines taken a bit of a hit there in the Dee.

Maximal was beaten 1L by Hurricane Lane and beaten similar there by El Drama, suggests Hurricane Lane wont be good enough unfortunately stick.

The performance of Yibir is also worrying for Adayar from the Sandown Classic trial, got to fancy Kyprios against him now on Saturday.

Ontario another Obrien runner beaten half the track with solid Group form in book. Its beyond doubt now that there is a bug in that yard and you can put a line through pretty much all their no shows recently.

 

i still wouldn't back anything for the Derby!
worst trials so far I can ever remember!

 

Obrien usually mops these races up every year with all the Galileos getting out to 10f, with his team decimated the trials are definitely weaker than normal.

 

Maybe not mate but I am pretty confident that the further he goes the better light we will see him in. The dams side looks to have a very strong 12f pedigree and the Newbury run saw him stay on really strongly. He might not have enough class but he wont be found wanting in the stamina stakes.

 

Id be very surprised if we see Snow Lantern at Epsom, Coronation or Diane far more likely, even less chance of seeing the bookies 2nd favourite Mother Earth, fair play to 365 for not putting her in the betting, all the other firms trying to steal money off idiots.

Pretty Gorgeous and Indigo Girl look unlikely runners as well and thats a large portion of the top of the market who wont be running.

Sea Empress at 25/1 is probably the last chance to get a classy filly at a big price for the race, assuming Willow bombs again at the weekend, but the Exceed and Excel dam has put me off and I think 8-10f will be her ideal distance, the same connections skipped the race with Sea Of Class a few years ago.

Teona, Sea Empress and Noon Star are all entered in the Musidora and if that race materialises the winner will definitely be 2nd choice to Santa Barbara.

 

Yibir clearly did not benefit from the addition of cheekpieces, his head hanging to the right in the last couple of furlongs of the Dee Stakes; however, I could not understand why they were running the horse on easy ground (well beaten on two juvenile starts on easy ground) and at ten furlongs on a flat course (beaten over ten furlongs on a stiff course latest).

All credit to Youth Spirit in winning the Chester Vase, beating Ballydoyle sole runner Sandhurst, but this hardly looked like Derby form with Law Of The Sea a complete no-show for Godolphin whilst their favourite Wirko folded tamely in the last two furlongs.

So the only Chester Classic trial that really offered any glimpses of Epsom was the Cheshire Oaks, collected by favourite Dubai Fountain for Mark Johnston, presumably en route to the Oaks.

This is already looking like another of those years where Ballydoyle will have six or seven in the Derby and punters can start by scratching whichever one Moore rides.

 

The trials have been Brad Pitt so far but the Derrinstown looks interesting.

There are eight lining up on Sunday and ostensibly it is a match between Futurity winner Mac Swiney and Ballysax success story Bolshoi Ballet. I am holding onto the dream that Southern Lights may spring a surprise and leap into contention but he needs a huge step up here.

Mac Swiney had an in and out profile last season with three wins and three unplaced efforts. He was generally disappointing over 7F out side of two stand out wins over Wembley and Cadillac, who were both high level performers last season. He then seemed to bloom upped to a mile in the Futurity on heavy going when getting the better of favourite One Ruler. It seemed quite clear that his best runs came on soft ground and he is yet to win on good or faster going. I wouldn't be sure that Mac Swiney would get 12F based on running at 7F on five occasions from his six starts at two.

Bolshoi Ballet in contrast looks sure to get the Derby trip and I felt he was a solid bet for the St Leger at 12/1. Unlike many of Aidan's colts Bolshoi Ballet got his act together with a workmanlike but decisive enough success on his reappearance and it promised more to come. He is rated 6 lbs below MacSwiney but I didn't think last season's Futurity was a strong renewal and runner up One Ruler ran 6 lbs below his OR in the 2000 Guineas. I would be preferring Bolshoi Ballet for the Derrinstown but there is no betting as I write this.

Hard to see Taipan or Lough Derg reversing form from the Ballysax and I am hoping Southern Lights at least gives a good account of himself against the big two. He was very easy to back on his return and I ended up getting 4/1 on him as he ran out a decent winner against father Aidan's colt who was a bit disappointing. Runner up Hell Bent pissed up by five lengths in a maiden as 7/4 Fav next time out and is now rated 88 on official figures, so you would think Southern Lights is 90's class and although that leaves him a good bit to find it can be hoped he comes forward as a son of Sea The Stars and it is encouraging that he is at least being given a chance to tackle the big boys.

A dream of course but at 66/1 for the Derby he is at least letting me live that dream for one more race,

I'll see what the odds are but will be siding with Bolshoi Ballet for the Derrinstown and he could be favourite for the Derby in the aftermath.

 

The Lingfield Derby Trial saw Kyprios scratched from Epsom reckoning as Third Realm powered home for Roger Varian. He and the runner-up, favourite Adayar, pulled well away from the rest on the soft ground. Just how good the form actually turns out to be is open to question. It is hard to make a solid case for Adayar from the Appleby yard after the moderate showing of his stablemate Yibir at Chester; however, the step up to twelve furlongs and the easier ground should have benefited him. Appleby has already declared that Adayar will not be at Epsom. Yet again the Ballydoyle runners ran indifferently. In the last couple of weeks only Mother Earth and Armory have put in notable performances.

The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on Sunday is now starting to take on quite a significance, with Mac Swiney facing the O’Brien family contingent headed by Bolshoi Ballet. It will be run on easy ground as most probably will the Dante at York. The Derrinstown winner will be favourite for the Derby unless it ends up a blanket finish.

The last time we had a dry April (2007) we had a wet summer. If it is wet the first week in June then at least some of the trial form will have some value; otherwise, the betting will be wide open and Ballydoyle will have six or seven runners.

 

If there is an impressive winner* of the Musidora, I think that and Santa Barbara will be my 2. My original fancy Indigo Girl is not entered for anything before the Oaks so that now looks a bit dodgy

Similarly, if there is an impressive winner* of the Dante I think that and Bolshoi Ballet will be my 2 for the Derby

* For impressive winner read, or unlucky loser who looks certain to reverse placings over 12f

 

Generally 7/4 for the Derby after winning easily in the Derrinstown Bolshoi Ballet finally gave us a performance in a trial that looked like it was Epsom quality.

It was easy to think that we were watching the Derby winner today. The odds are short enough now that we have to look deeper into this form for reassurance that it is going to stack up stronger than the upcoming Dante. Post Dante Bolshoi Ballet may look very hard to get away from but what level of form do we have for this Derrinstown?

A key element was always going to be how Mac Swiney ran today. I felt Bolshoi Ballet was the bet today but had expected enough confidence in the Bolger Colt to see the betting tighter between them than Evens and 10/3. This seemed ominous for a Futurity winner with a 116 rating and a theoretical 7 lbs superiority over today's favourite on official ratings.

Bolshoi Ballet kicked on today and none of the field could answer it. Mac Swiney was soon in trouble and was never going to close the gap. In the end Bolshoi Ballet won by six lengths and Mac Swiney could only manage fourth. I felt he was lucky to even get that because Southern Lights was staying on steadily looking like he might snatch a remote second but the jockey went for a daring run on the inside and had the door slammed in his face, having to snatch up and lost all momentum. I have watched it back and am sure Southern Lights was going to claim Lough Derg, who finished second.

In the end Mac Swiney has finished behind Fernando Vichi, who is a 98 rated colt on official ratings and in my mind he has run to at least a stone below his Futurity rating, which I always thought was artificially high in a poor year. We have seen plenty evidence this season to believe we have a below par cropof 3YO colts.

There are mixed messages from the Ballysax. Bolshoi Ballet has increased his margin over Lough Derg by 3 lengths from that race but has only beaten today's third Fernando Vichi by one length further than he did last time. Taipan, who also ran in the Ballysax has failed to confirm form with today's second and third with a fairly disappointing show as 3rd best in the betting today. Having said that he was only half a length behind a Group 1 winner in Mac Swiney.

I think we can conclude that Mac Swiney was poor today and has little to recommend him for the Derby. To me he was always dubious for Epsom. With him faoling to fire we have Bolshoi Ballet just doing more or less what he did in the Ballysax but in better fashion. In a very weak looking season he deserves to be favourite for now but I am not of a mind to lump on at the odds. I had seen him as a good bet for the Leger at 12/1 and the obvious concern is that he is now too good to run there with 12F targets that are much sexier on a CV to aim for.

Regarding the Leger, Bolshoi Ballet is 9/2 with most firms but Paddy Power are offering 10/1, perhaps the only firm to be thinking along the lines I am, ie that a Derby win would rule him out of Doncaster.

 

Obriens do at least seem to be coming on plenty for their runs, its obvious a lot of them are far better than we have seen in the last few weeks and if anything is going emerge as a danger to Bolshoi Ballet its odds on to come from the same stable.

 

Racing Post gave Mac Swiney as running a stone below form on 102.

Despite being beaten three lengths further this time, Lough Derg was given a 1 lb higher rating today. That is going to be the crux of whether this was a Derby performance from Bolshoi Ballet..

 

I dont think there is any doubt it was a Derby performance, it was clearly head and shoulders above anything weve seen from a 3yo middle distance colt so far, but thats not say Obrien doesnt have something else who can produce better on the day as weve seen him do it a few tiimes with wildcards. Bolshoi Ballet looks absolutely nailed on for top 2, whatever beats him wins id say, but obviously at the price I wont be touching him now, he was backable as a 2yo before his run in France but that run was off putting, looks like he just didnt handle the ground now.

There has been a move for Van Gogh in the Dante, 7s into 3/1 favourite, with doubts over High Definition running, Gear Up who beat Bolshoi Ballet in France looks the obvious UK runner, and Royal Champion is enitled to respect given the ammo Varian seems to have this season. Judging by the improvement shown by some of Obriens, I am expecting Van Gogh to take a big step forward from the Guineas, and hopefully book his place at Epsom as he is my only bet in the race and he has been my Derby horse all along.

I may have something on Derab at 50/1 if they are going for the race on Saturday rather than the maiden on Friday, I think it was a ridiculously hot maiden he got beat in over a mile and it was no disgrace. If Gosden goes for the Fairway stakes on Saturday then he is obviously thinking about the Derby, if he goes for the maiden instead then forget about it.

 

I was thinking it would all become clear after the Dante (and Musidora for the Oaks). But, as usual some won't turn up and even those races may just muddy the waters even more. Until then though, I'm not looking any more

 

Ally Pally, the old frying pan