Yes only two Europa places. You are right if the cup final losers finish 7th they will be in the new third tier competition.
Efficient scouting and a good transfer module goes a long way. We had one for many years, Leicester now more or less do exactly what we used to do and are reaping the rewards, West Ham have also picked up a couple of gems of late that have done really well. The right managers also help too, hindsight shows Jose was completely wrong for us and because of that we’ve ended up taking another step back from where Poch left us, when we were in desperate need to begin moving forward again. Rodgers and Moyes however have been perfect fits for their clubs so far. More or less every footballing decision this club has made for the last 5 years has been wrong. Whether that be a new signing, a new manager, a new contract, choosing to hold onto a player rather than accept a bid etc.
Everton have always been a bogey team for us, and the last time we beat Brighton was almost a decade ago. Antonio being back is massive, and I thik Rice will be back Saturday, but Ogbonna & Masuaku are a big loss for us (Moyes gets a massive shout for that as it's something I never thought I'd say.) I think it'll finish as it is.
For me I'd prefer it over the EL, neither are financially worth it to premier teams, it's less games against lower opposition, the perfect comp to throw your borderline youth and squad players in
Would be interesting to do a "Faustian pact" article to see exactly what people are prepared to tolerate for owners of Spurs if it means on-pitch PL/UEFA silverware ...
West Ham and Leicester have finished below us in almost every season for ages. They have one or two good seasons and are suddenly a model we should be following? Having less money won't solve the scouting issues (if any), it will simply amplify them.
Leicester have been building for years now and are likely set to finish above us for the second season running. West Ham are now in a strong position because of the work they’ve been putting in place over the last 18 months or so. We may still finish above them, we may not but it doesn’t change the fact they’ve been making the right calls and hiring the right people and there’s a sense of feeling now for their fans that they’re on the up. Arsenal finished above us every season for ages but Spurs fans all saw the progression we were making for years and then we eventually finished above them and have done for the last few seasons and barring a major mess up will do so again. Though we’re now in danger of essentially becoming the Arsenal whilst Leicester (and possibly West Ham) are becoming the Tottenham.
The Arsenal Spurs comparison is valid because it was a long term trend of us improving and them getting worse. Their trend downwards has continued and our upward trend has stagnated. Leicester do seem to be in an upward trend but it's nothing like as strong as ours was. West Ham are more likely one season wonders.
We've regressed, not stagnated. We're in a downward trend now. Leicester are in an upward trend because they've adopted a strong transfer module that's allowed them to punch above their weight. They've sold key players for high profits, reinvested the money smartly and have eventually replaced those key players with more key players, not forgetting they've got the right manager for their philosophy too. It's more or less a carbon copy of Spurs from around 2004-2014 where we ended up selling the likes of Carrick, Berbatov, Modric, Bale etc but eventually managed to still get better as a team. Though once we finally built that strong team under Poch after years of reinvesting, our module then seemingly got dropped in the bin, we wasted money on what feels like a scattergun approach, held onto players too long, gave poor or ageing players new deals and hired the wrong manager to try rectifying it. West Ham haven't been as impressive as Leicester but I also wouldn't rule them out and call them a one season wonder. They've made some very good signings of late and Moyes seems to have found his old Everton self again having been in a bit of limbo for a few years since his Utd tenure.
Comparisons with Leicester are difficult for many reasons. They are objectively a much smaller club than us but won a PL trophy during what was supposedly our 'strongest' era. I'd say where they are now is roughly where we were under Harry. Still miles off of challenging for the title but comfortably good enough to break into the top 4. The difference is that they have a largely young squad whereas under Harry we had a bunch of players on their last legs (VDV, Gallas, Ledley) so we struggled to maintain a grip on the top 4 (for that plus a dozen other reasons). They also don't have any truly outstanding superstar talents as we do with Kane and Son, or did with Bale, VDV and Modric. Their whole is greater than the sum of their parts which is something we lacked badly under Harry but discovered under Poch. Victory in the cup plus one more successful window and I can see Leicester becoming extremely difficult to unseat.
I don't think they're going away any time soon. I've said before I think they're doing their best at turning the big six into the big seven and it may not be too long until it's considered as such. They're doing more or less everything we done to make it a big 5 back then (big 6 when City got the Sheikh). Smart recruitment, selling for high profits, reinvesting and repeating that process, new training ground, plans for a stadium expansion... Leicester Hotspur, ladies and gents.
The only thing with Leicester is that their business model is unsustainable, as their wages outstrip their revenue and that's pre-corona. They've definitely been making a lot of sensible signings, though. A lot of teams have scouted some of them, but failed to pull the trigger and now look a bit silly. Tielemans and Maddison in particular were on a lot of lists.
Pereira, Castagne and Soyuncu, along with the two you mentioned were also on our radar at one point in time, as was Maguire back in his Sheffield/ Hull days. Starting to think they're somewhat doing a Bielsa and have spies in our camp, though they're not reporting on tactics, they're reporting on our targets, lol.
It is interesting that Leicester have Utd and Chelsea away in 2 of their next 3 games. If they lose them and we win our 3 winnable (although by no means guaranteed) games, then we would be 1 point behind them and then we play each other in the final game. For RCL purposes I am predicting (officially) that this will NOT happen.
Knowing our luck, United will finish 5th and win the EL, Chelsea will finish 6th and win the CL, West Ham will finish 3rd and we'll finish 4th.
I think that is almost impossible (not that I believe you truly worry about that). For us to get 4th we need Utd to take points off Liverpool and Leicester. They need 1 point (2 at a push for GD swing) to finish ahead of us and 3 points to guarantee 4th. If Utd finish 5th, we are 6th at best.
Even two draws in those matches for Leicester leaves us in essentially the same position....because being 1 point or 3 points behind on the last day both mean we would go above them if we beat them and stay below them with any other result.