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Epsom Oaks, Friday 4th June 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Mar 24, 2021.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm glad Sea Empress has an outing before the Oaks. That makes the 25/1 quite tempting
     
    #21
  2. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Teona has been smashed up overnight, now 7/4 fav, guess with the stable in such good form and the vibes that she is their best its not too surprising, but i expected Noon Star to be fav due to having a run under her belt. Early betting suggesting Sea Empress wont be running in this.
     
    #22
  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Looking at Sea Empress there must be a stamina worry with the Dam's sire being Exceed And Excel. The Dam was a miler and her only other foal Red Line Alexander (full sister) weakened and was tailed off in her only try at 12F.

    Encouraging that Sea Empress won at a mile aged two but the obvious question is whether Teona can reverse form with her from that race?

    Teona looks the much more assured stayer on pedigree and I would have to prefer her to Sea Empress in the Oaks.

    Regarding the Musidora, Noon Star is more exposed but has progressed with every race. Her official rating of 98 is not daunting but you would think she is going to step upwards of 105 this time with normal improvement and it is going to take a run close to 110 to beat her in that scenario. I have no doubt that Teona and Sea Empress have the potential to reach that form but can they achieve it on seasonal debut?

    If Noon Star is going to beat Teona the Musidora probably represents her best opportunity and at 10/3 I would tend to think she is better value for the trial. Sea Empress seems weak in the betting.
     
    #23
  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Loving Dream and Ocean Road could give a few hints to the level of Noon Star in the Lingfield Oaks trial with both having finished 2nd to her.

    Ocean Road actually looks the bet to me, 13/2 into 4/1 already and she could end up favourite as Technique is not particularly impressive and Nash Nasha made hard work of a couple of newcomers last time, albeit potentially high class ones and she was giving them 7 pounds. Ocean Road was green and lost ground early on debut but actually made a big move to come from the back and head Noon Star before experience told late on. She was equally promising winning next time with a far from ideal trip here on the AW. By Australia and a half to the high class 12f international G1 winner Wigmore Hall, the step up in trip looks sure to suit and if any of these are going to be a player in the Oaks id say its her. Cant say she was ever on my radar but having given her a proper look ive had my 3rd and final bet on the race with her at 50/1, think that is just too big to let go on the off chance she does turn out to be the one tomorrow, with the Oaks looking so thin she could put herself right into the mix with a decent performance.
     
    #24
    Last edited: May 8, 2021
  5. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I really like TEONA for the Oaks but only had my first little dabble on the race today with an EW on OCEAN ROAD at 50/1. Nice middle distance pedigree and has some scope. Price would tumble if she smashed up the Oaks Trial at Lingfield today.
     
    #25
  6. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Decent run from Ocean Road but she wont be winning the Oaks, boost for Noon Stars form with 3 horses she beat all finishing close including the winner. Roger Varian with another line on the form as well with the 2nd.

    For me the race only further confirms that Noon Star and Teona are probably the main UK players and the Musidora will be the key trial outside Ireland.

    Teona has been absolutely smashed up, shes evens for the Musidora with Noon Star out to 4/1, and shes into 6s for the Oaks, might be a bit more confidence behind Noon Star after todays result.
     
    #26
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  7. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    That was much better from Willow in the Blue Wind, went through the race nicely and stayed on well in 3rd, big step forward from her last race and they might throw her at the Oaks but obviously she will be an outsider on the day.
     
    #27
  8. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    The best Trial run for the Oaks so far was the performance of Saffron Beach in the 1000G. Of course whether they decide to go for the Oaks is another thing.
     
    #28
    Last edited: May 8, 2021
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Doesn't look like an Oaks pedigree though does it Bustino?
     
    #29
  10. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    You are probably right Ron, but what makes you say that?

    Maybe I should have said the 1000G is the best trial so far.
     
    #30

  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I was looking at the immediate pedigree which looked littered with, what I recall as, 7-10f horses. But, looking further back, there are about 7 or 8 Derby/Arc winners and an Oaks 2nd, and even dear old Ribot. So there is plenty of stamina further back in the pedigree. However, the fav is slightly more stoutly bred, was only pipped on the post by the 2nd and 3rd despite running green. It looks like the fav has this and we are looking for the places

    Saffron Beach is entered in the Coronation Stakes and the Pretty Polly. Precaution in case she doesn't stay the 12f ?
     
    #31
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    If there is an impressive winner* of the Musidora, I think that and Santa Barbara will be my 2. My original fancy Indigo Girl is not entered for anything before the Oaks so that now looks a bit dodgy

    Similarly, if there is an impressive winner* of the Dante I think that and Bolshoi Ballet will be my 2 for the Derby

    * For impressive winner read, or unlucky loser who looks certain to reverse placings over 12f
     
    #32
  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Musidora is down to 8 runners and Sea Empress is not in the field. Teona and Noon Star dominate the betting with Pretty Polly winner Mystery Angel next in the betting. Aidan sends Snowfall but she seemed exposed last season and an OR of 90 after six runs seems to suggest she needs a sudden leap forward here.

    I did Noon Star at 10/3 when betting opened and had a top up at 4/1. The odds seemed too big for a filly who is only 8/1 for the Oaks itself. Teona could be anything and has had tons of support but she is priced as if she has already proven herself to be way better than these and that is a leap of faith at Even money with decent opposition who have already shown what they can do this season.

    I can't have Saffron Beach for the Oaks based on her Guineas run or pedigree. She looked effective enough at a mile and didn't run as if another half mile would help. I also felt this was a weak 1000 Guineas for all that John Gosden stated he thought it was well up to standard.

    It can be argued that the Oaks is also weak but Noon Star sets a promising standard and looks like there will be more to come and Teona is being backed as if she is something special. There is also the chance that Santa Barbara will come on from what was only her second career start and she only has a neck and a nose to find with Saffron Beach. Santa Barbara looks more likely to stay the 12F than Saffron Beach and all things considered it is hard to make a case for Saffron Beach in my mind.

    I wouldn't say Santa Barbara was cast iron to get 12F and I think she is short enough with the Musidora likely to throw up a very decent contender one way or the other.

    No sign of Indigo Girl at all this season and she will have to arrive late to the party.

    Sea Empress is short enough for a filly who swerved the Musidora and Joan Of Arc at a general 10/1 is ridiculous for a filly who beat a 50/1 shot in the Guineas Trial in a scenario where the RPR man had to raise the runner up by 19 lbs out of the blue in order to get Joan Of Arc up to 103 for winning a Group 3. Add in the stamina doubt on pedigree/siblings and 10/1 is pure Barry White odds.
     
    #33
  14. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Agree with you Ron. As a sire you'd expect New Bay to be able to get produce that stay 12f. He stayed 10f very well and won over 12f as a 3yo before finishing 3rd in the Arc. Given his race record and his pedigree you'd fancy him to get produce to stay further than his sire Dubawi.
    As regards the distaff side my eyes initially catch the damsire, Ravens Pass, and his 5th dam Hope Springs Eternal (a big spread there). I'm sure most people would think Ravens Pass was a miler and likely to get fast horses, whereas the only time he ran over 10f he won the Breeders Cup Classic. He was a tough miler who never gave up in some tough races and maybe 10f might have suited him. Next let's look at Hope Springs Eternal who is famous as the dam of Miswaki (Mr Prospector). So Saffron Beach's 4th dam is a Northern Dancer half-sister to Miswaki. Now Miswaki was mainly a source of speed though became the sire of probably the best broodmare of the last 25 years (and Arc winner) Urban Sea.
    I suppose my view is that the best formula for a good Derby or Oaks winner is a 10f sire out of a 10f mare. I always feel that a pedigree full of stamina will result in a horse too slow to win an Epsom classic. The best Derby winners I've seen have been colts about whom there were stamina concerns. So if Saffron Beach turns up I'd be interested in her. But as I've said elsewhere you can have a horse by Frankel out of a 7f/8f horse and end up with a horse whose maximum distance was 5f/6f.
    As it is we may not have to worry about it as she may be rerouted elsewhere. I guess the Nassau would be a premium target.
     
    #34
  15. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Getting 12f winners and getting Epsom 12f classic winners is a different ball game, im sure New Bay will produce plenty of 12f winners but he may struggle in these races like Dubawi, and he wont get anything like the mares an American Pharoah will get. Santa Barbara is the only horse from the Guineas with any chance in this imo, im expecting Mother Earth and Saffron Beach to run in the Coronation.

    Sea Empress has an entry in the mile race at York with Snow Lantern so she is obviously not shaping like a 12f filly and id be very surprised now to see her run at Epsom, I suspected 8-10f would be her range.

    The Musidora is the most exciting race of the season so far for me with Noon Star vs Teona, two lightly raced fillies with exceptional pedigrees in a classic trial, its what the game is all about, obviously exciting to have a nice bet on Teona at a big price as well. She has become a bit of a hype horse now though, the money around for her tells you that she is working well in a stable that has been doing very well in the trials so far, and the expectations are that she is the standout, but she has to do it on the track now.

    I wouldnt read much into Sherbet Lemon being beaten 7L by Noon Star, she obviously left that run well behind at Lingfield, Loving Dream was beaten 2.5L by Noon Star and was beaten 3L by Sherbet Lemon at Lingfield. Sherbet Lemon finished behind Fraklet in the Noon Star race and that one got well turned over in a class 5 novice at Kempton so I wouldnt read that line literally.

    That said, Noon Star does set the standard on paper and improvement can be expected, but ultimately im still not convinced against my gut feeling that shes short of top class, and I think if there is a real star in the race it will be Teona, the vibes are very strong from a stable on fire and I hope she is the real deal, its about time Varian had another proper classic horse.
     
    #35
    Last edited: May 10, 2021
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  16. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Well that's pretty damning for poor old New Bay with only his first crop
     
    #36
  17. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Its not damning but the odds are surely stacked against him and any other non Derby winning, non Galileo linked, non Coolmore backed sires. In the last 10 years the only non typical Oaks/Derby winning sires were Cape Cross, who was a bit of a freak, and Fastnet Rock, who would not have won one without Coolmores Galileo mares.

    Frankel, Nathaniel, New Approach, all sons of Galileo, Sea The Stars a half brother to him, and Galileo himself obviously, Montjeu and his son Pour Moi also from the Saddlers Wells line. Its almost total domination by a few select bloodlines and breeding operations.

    Chances of New Bay producing an Oaks or Derby winner from likely at best 2nd string Juddmonte mares is pretty slim, its not a slight on him, just the reality.
     
    #37
    Last edited: May 11, 2021
  18. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Generally 2/1 Noon Star for the Musidora now. 4/1 looked too big a price for her. 11/8 about in places for Teona now. Interesting to see what the odds are saying tomorrow morning.
     
    #38
  19. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Varian said: “She looks a very nice filly at home and we’ve always held her in high regard. She’s taken a while to come to herself this spring and I should think the run will bring her forward. That said, her last few weeks of training have been very pleasing.

    “She’s a big, rangy filly. I trained her mother, who also took a while to come to hand, and Teona was never going to be a summer two-year-old – she’s all about this year and beyond. We like her a lot – it’s well publicised I think, the regard which we hold her in.

    “This is a nice starting point and a lovely place to start. If she doesn’t win it’s not the end of the world, but we’d expect her to run well.”


    Varian confirming what the market moves hinted at but it doesnt sound like they will have her 100% for this, only 2 horses in the last 13 years have won it first time out and most of the trials so far have been dominated by race fit horses, the Cheshire Oaks being the exception, market now correctly has Noon Star favourite again.

    Only 5 horses since 1988 have won the Oaks after running in the Musidora, surprisingly all of them were beaten first time out as 3yos, Diminuendo and Reams Of Verse were well beaten in the Guineas.

    1988 Diminuendo (USA) won (Had 2 runs)
    1989 Snow Bride (USA) won (Had a run)
    1997 Reams Of Verse (USA) won (Had a run)
    2006 Alexandrova (IRE) 2nd (Season debut)
    2009 Sariska (GB) won (Had a run)

    You could say the race is due another one and it does look a potentially good renewal in a weak year.
     
    #39
    Last edited: May 11, 2021
  20. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Teona showed plenty there making a big move into the race, unfortunately also showed she is her mothers daughter, Ambivalent was a nutcase and Teona looks to have inherited some of her mind which is a worry, ive no doubt she was the most talented in the race but she might need more time.

    Noon Star exposed id say and and wont be surprised if she goes Ribblesdale instead, guess the same could be true for Teona. Moore back to his best recently and rode them to sleep on a professional filly, probably flattered slightly but looks like Ballydoyle have both the Epsom classics tied up as per.
     
    #40

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