Epsom Oaks, Friday 4th June 2021

Galileo as a sire is like Frankel on the track, probably wont see another one like them for a very long time, freaks of nature.

 

I think Noon Star lacked gears today. She stayed on dourly for second and needs 12F now. I wouldn't rule her out of placing in the Oaks but she didn't come forward enough from her seasonal debut to be a winning contender. I would have expected a Stoute filly to progress a fair bit on her second start of her 3YO career and it was disappointing to see so little improvement.

Teona made a promising move but seemed to peter out quickly and trundle on to snatch 3rd from Mystery Angel. She still has scope but there is not a lot of time now to the Oaks

Snowfall got her arse on a plate every time she ran against Pretty Gorgeous and Shale last season and was expensive to follow, returning just a maiden win at 8/13, having been beaten at 4/7 previously. This looked a huge leap forward for a filly who was 40/1 for Epsom this morning.

Looking back at the Fillies Mile from last season we see Pretty Gorgeous winning from Indigo Girl, with 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth 3rd, Chester Oaks winner Dubai Fountain 4th and now Musidora winner Snowfall 8th. Shale was always a filly for last year to my eyes but I will be fascinated to see how Pretty Gorgeous gets on when we finally see her. It looks like she beat some damn good fillies last year and it also begs the question as to where Indigo Girl is? That filly Gosden ran in the Musidora today looks a right cuddy.

 

Galileo’s domination is exacerbated by the fact that he services Coolmore’s harem of blue bloods, many of whom are middle distance stock. Arguably Northern Dancer would be the most dominant sire ever; followed by his son Sadler’s Wells – Galileo’s dad. They are certainly keeping it in the family. Who will take up the mantle?

 

Singularly unimpressed with the Musidora as once again some jockeys left their brains in the weighing room. If the winner had been one of Johnston’s then it would be more obvious that it was allowed to steal the race. As it was, Moore set a moderate pace, picked up the tempo and left the others in a heap scrapping for second. Fair play to him, his job is to win races and he made use of his filly’s guaranteed stamina. Snowfall has a lot of miles on the clock but clearly all that juvenile form is meaningless, just like Mother Earth in the 1000 Guineas.

Noon Star was never pushed up to challenge, which was astonishing given her pedigree. I can still see her going to Epsom to try and avenge her mother’s head defeat by Sariska, as the extra two furlongs will be just as good for her as the winner; and Classic black type would be good on her CV. Teona clearly has her quirks and they may have to take their time to sort her out, which may mean no trip to the Classic. No horse becomes a bad one in just one race and Midday was arguably at her best as a four year old, so I am not writing any of these off yet.

 

Oh dear. Not the Musidora we were hoping for Apart from Santa Barbara, who didn't do her Oaks chances any harm with her 4th in the 1000 Gns, every time a hopeful runs it ends up being crossed off the list. I get the feeling the possible dangers may well be Sea Empress and Indigo Girl, but only because I haven't been able to cross them off the list yet

 

Its been a trend with Obrien last few years, his good 3yos fillies are often well exposed looking 2yos, thats what put me on to Love and Mother Earth. Snowfall looked a different horse today, she had the run of the race and Teona blew up after her antics in the first half of the race but its hard to knock the performance, she will be rated around 110 and rightly so.

The sectionals show that Teona ran the fastest last half mile despite having the slowest final furlong of the top 4, failing to settle and likely needing the run told in the end, Mystery Angel and Noon Star dont appear to have any excuses and were just outclassed by the winner, Noon Star could still do better but cant see her winning at the top level, and this was probably a career highlight for Mystery Angel.

Snowfall will be hard to beat at 10f in the 3yo fillies division based on this, and Teona is almost certainly capable of better.

 

Surely if you take Mystery Angel as your reliable measuring tool then there wasnt an Oaks filly in the field?

 

Id say that was probably the 2nd best performance by a 3yo filly this season from Snowfall, behind Mother Earth, I dont think anything else has run to 110. The 2 standard setters for the Oaks were Dubai Fountain and Santa Barbara, who probably ran to around 107-108, so with Mystery Angel a solid 100, you have to say the winner is bang there with the best contenders on class, and if Teona was to settle she would put herself right in the mix, thats now a big if with her though.

I think Dubai Fountain is being underestimated at 14/1, she should be around half that price, but after today I think the slight stamina doubt with Santa Barbara is probably the only hope of getting her beat, with the speed Snowfall showed today I wouldnt be rushing to go a stiff 12f with her. Santa Barbara will probably stay well enough as it just doesnt look like there is going to be a top class 12f performance by any of her opponents, like when Rhododendron bumped into Enable, I was hoping that Teona could have been the one but she clearly has issues that you dont expect to see from an imminent classic winner.

Sea Empress looks like she is running at Newbury now, she was entered for a mile race at York but not any more, every chance that she could be 2nd favourite after Saturday, she has the class and the temperament, 12f is the question mark for her.

 

Sea Empress yet another one to fail to settle in a slowly run race, seems to be happening way more than usual this season, she always looked unlikely to run in the Oaks but with the lack of top class contenders they must have been considering it before today.

Roger Varian wins another trial which sees Teona and Zeyadaah shortening, it was encouraging to read Varians comments on Teona after the Musidora, and unless hes putting everyone away, it seems he still thinks she is their best filly. Id be confident of a huge run if she settles but im not confident that she will knowing the dam and after the way she ran at York. Good chance I will go in big on the day again if she is still around 8/1 as I do really like the filly and im happy to go off the cliff with her.

The race is taking shape now as weve seen everyones cards already. The latest odds on betfair:

Santa Barbara 3.15
Snowfall 6.2
Teona 8.4
Zeyaadah 9.6
Dubai Fountain 12.5
Noon Star 22

and whatever price you want about anything else...

The worry for the likes of Teona is that Ballydoyle are unlikely to run a pacemaker in this, Snowfall thrived settling well in front off a crawl in the Musidora and Santa Barbara would also be well placed if turned into a sprint.

Varian seems to have a ton of decent fillies, maybe he can find one to make the running as it would suit his two to have a strong early pace, but its not really his style.

Dubai Fountain looks likely to get the run of the race if there are no pacemakers and she is being cut to single figures by most, some 12/1 left but it might not last long.

 

There goes another one.

 

They are pulling punters pissers with 16/1 Sea Empress for the Oaks. As Les Dennis said "I'll give you the money myself"

 

I'm not making a case for it to win the Oaks but it was given a shocker of a ride yesterday. I wouldn't completely write the horse off judged on that run.

 

The filly also lost her right-fore shoe during the course of the race.

 

Didn't know that. Another reason for the bad run. I'd definitely give the horse another chance. There's no way we saw a true reflection of its ability yesterday

 

It's early enough to be writing Sea Empress off but it is regarding her Oaks odds where I feel the price is wrong. It's only 18 days to the race and it's a huge ask to bounce back from a poor run.

Even giving the Varian trained winner a 19 lbs rise for her surprise win only left her on 97 and the Gosden runner-up got a 22 lbs upgrade but was still rated under the 100 on 96. Just a Listed race and Sea Empress would still have to find a lot to win an Oaks. I think Haggas would be better going more slowly with her and avoiding Epsom.

 

Like i said before i'm not making a case for it to win The Oaks but i don't think its price is too bad either. Its last run was bad yes but with genuine excuses. I also pay no attention whatsover to ratings. I can honestly say i've never once looked at a horses rating when having a bet. Pointless in my opinion as they are so subjective

 

I think they might be better if they were subjective smokey. They are pure maths as far as I'm concerned