Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 16th. June 2021

Probably the worst Ascot ive ever seen in terms of quality and the draw bias as always takes something away from the meeting but looking forward to seeing Love, have to take her on though at the price as shes unproven at 10f in open company and Obriens are rarely spot on first time.

Audarya at 8/1 looks worth an interest, showed she handles fast ground when winning at the Breeders Cup, that form with Rushing Fall and Tarnawa in France is high level, ive always liked her since her debut at Kempton but ive yet to catch her winning. Armory is unproven on proper fast ground and has yet to win a Group 1 for all he looks improved as an older horse.

 

Two good fillies, suspect there will be plenty more to come from Love, she will be hard to beat wherever on decent ground.

I like Golden Bell in the Windsor Castle, surprised to see her at double figures as I dont think there is much between her and Ruthin and shes going to be very hard to catch from the high draw.

 

That was a good ride from the front by Ryan. And it has to be said not very bright by the others allowing him to set the fractions. According to the sectionals on Sky, he slowed the race up after the first furlong and then picked up the pace in the last five.

Delighted that Love won; and showed that she is back in business this term and will be hard to beat. A very good effort by the runner-up Audarya, also on her seasonal bow, and the third Armory gives the form a solid feel.

 

Love - never in doubt.

 

Timeform had the forecast in the Queen’s Vase – but the wrong way around. They have gone with Finest Sound in the Royal Hunt Cup, which was my pick but after Frankie won the Duke Of Cambridge coming on the stands’ side, I do not want to be on a horse drawn 9 in a 30 runner handicap. So watch it win...

The horse that beat Finest Sound at Nottingham, Astro King is favourite here from box 27 but I could not be having it at 4/1.

So looking for a horse with a high draw, I am going to have an each-way nibble on Mick Shannon’s TRAIS FLUORS, which won on Saturday at Sandown and carries a penalty. Hopefully four days is long enough for him to have recovered from his exertions.

 

Of course the draw makes a difference but as one famous jockey said the best place to be drawn is where the pace comes from. And in the Norfolk and the Hunt Cup the pace came first on the stands side (Twilight Gleaming) and the far side (Eastern World) respectively.

 

There was plenty of pace on the stands’ side. At the finish, other than the winner only one horse on the far side was in the first six.

The winner had run two thirds and a fourth in Meydan over the winter, had an apprentice on because it was at the bottom of the weights (even though it was running off an official rating of 94); and I suspect has run its last race in a handicap after the handicapper has adjusted it for that performance – the race was over at the furlong pole.

 

Last chance saloon and I have a horse that is unbeaten this season, winning easily at Nottingham before following up on this course but over the distance on the straight course beating today’s favourite Dreamloper.

The trainer Sir Michael Stoute occasionally wins here and the jockey Ryan Moore gets a few rides.

The only problem the owners, Cheveley Park Stud, have is that my money is weighing LIGHTS ON down as well as topweight.

 

Unless

you go too fast of course.

When I first followed flat racing the days you had long-priced winners was when you had soft going or worse. Now it's the other way round. If the surface is good to firm or firmer it's then you get the long priced winners. Why has this happened? In my view it's just one reason and that's watering. Indirectly it has caused the demise of the racehorse.

 

That's rubbish. The early pace was on the far side. There's going to be far more finishers on the stand side because most of the horses came stands side.

 

After Chipotle's last run on soft ground in the National Stakes at Sandown I had reflected the following:-

"After reviewing Chipotle's effort, I feel he may not have been suited by track and going tonight and I may well give him another go on a faster surface. I doubt another furlong in the Coventry would be his bag".

He won well at 22/1 and the Ward runners were disappointing. Particularly Golden Bell.

The draw advantage on ATR said HIGH. Chipotle came out of Trap 1.

 

If you recall I put him up for the National, I think you had the winner. Not a penny on him today!

 

Rubbish day punting wise for me, I peaked too soon!

 

With the early pace on the far side, they were going too fast for all bar two of the runners: the winner, Real World, and the fifth, Beat Le Bon.

Nothing else in the first eleven home had a draw less than 20. The third horse home on the far side was Fantasy Believer in eighteenth.

There were two races run here. The pacesetters on the far side cut their own throats but clearly the performance of the winner indicated that it was a good horse.

 

You must have been watching a different race. Even the commentator said it's the boys in blue leading the far side. And they weren't only leading the far side they were ahead. But unlike the pace in the Windsor Castle it wasn't a breakneck pace.

My point is simple. It's not always about draw bias. Sometimes it's about pace bias.

 

I remember it well. My first thought when I saw the race live was that Ebro River had won easily but watching the race again later it struck me how well Chipotle travelled early in the race and that he simply emptied on the jockey in the closing stages. I suspected that the jockey felt he was running out of gas and was trying to hold him together. Part of my selecting Ebro River at Sandown was that he was proven on soft. Ebro River ran well in the Coventry yesterday, actually leading briefly but I suggested after the National that I would have aimed him at the Norfolk and the trainer decided to go Coventry.

The Coventry Stakes seems to be regarded as the better 2YO contest but the winners have a poor record overall of going on to win the Guineas, despite plenty of them being ante-post favourite for the race in the aftermath of their win at the Royal Meeting.

Talking of ante-post betting, it seems insane to me that Point Lonsdale is 10/1 favourite for NEXT year's Derby. Sweet Jesus, we just saw a Derby winner who was 40/1 on the morning of the race, 11 and a half months to wait on a 10/1 shot for a race where the likely winner is probably a few months away from running yet?

I don't care if Point Lonsdale wins the Chesham by 10 lengths, the Derby odds are a joke. Shame on William Hill, the old man would be turning in his grave at the "Fanny Baws" layers of today.

 

Keep it going PNkt, you set me up nicely on day one so I bow to your very worthy advice. Winner or loser you are so knowledgeable

 

Watching in a pub where they had the football commentary on for the Wales match, I have no idea what the commentators said.

My eyes tell me that the lead that the smaller far side group had was the result of a suicidal pace. It finished off all but two of the runners. The sensible pace of the stands side group saw the finish on that side dominated by horses drawn above twenty. Had the winner been drawn in the twenties, it could well have won by further; therefore, the best horse won despite the disadvantage.

The fact that other than the winner and the fifth, nine of the first eleven home were drawn twenty or above clearly indicates a draw bias.

My original selection, drawn 9, was never a factor on the far side, whilst my revised selection, drawn 28, finished eighth.