Daily Racing Thread Saturday 2nd. October 2021

Saturday's Meetings

Gowran Park
N/H 8 Races 1:00-5:05p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 1:10-4:40p.m.
Killarney
Flat 7 Races 1:25-4:55p.m.
Ascot
Flat 6 Races 1:30-4:25p.m.
Redcar
Flat 8 Races 1:50-5:50p.m.
Chester
Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:20p.m.
Fontwell
N/H 8 Races 2:50-6:10p.m.
Wolverhampton(E)
A/W 8 Races 4:53-8:30p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

Attivo. Superb as always mate. Thank you

 

Foden 10/1 Win and Little Prayer 33/1 ew with a little rev fc, my two against the field

 

A busy day with 9 races at Longchamp also likely to generate interest and with the meetings kindly listed by Attivo hosting 59 races between them, it gives a total of 68 races for selecting from.

I'll be thinking about Ascot for starters and it's a very competitive card.

Hurricane Ivor did me a favour a couple of runs back but I didn't play him last time when he stepped up to Group 3 class successfully. This is Listed class today and he has to give weight away this time, most notably to Tis Marvellous, who was behind him last time but is 2 lbs better off today. Dakota Gold has been needing soft ground for a while now and ran below par last time on a faster surface. Tis Marvellous seemed to relish the ground that day and wasn't so good next time with cut. It is likely to be softer still today and I feel Dakota Gold can gain revenge.

Minzaal is interesting. He won the Gimcrack last year and was then third in the Middle Park. He was injured thereafter, so has to come out after a lengthy absence. There was discussion as to whether he may be a Guineas horse in time but I doubted that and it seems they are looking to sprint trips with him. That Gimcrack hasn;t worked out well and neither has the Middle Park to b honest.

It was a toss up for me whether to go with Hurricane Ivor or Dakota Gold but the younger horse has been on the up and I think he could well prevail here. I will take him to collar Dakota Gold in the closing stages.

2.05 Ascot Hurricane Ivor 10/3

Hurricane Ivor/Dakota Gold RF

Great Ambassador was my Ayr Gold Cup play ante post and he ran a belter in 2nd place with a big weight. Bielsa came through with a rare burst on the other side of the track that day and ran out a good winner. Bielsa was getting 8 lbs from Great Ambassador in the Ayr race but must now face him on levels terms, so he is 8 lbs worse in for a little over 2 lengths win. There will be plenty who would think the Ayr Gold Cup favourite could get revenge at these weights. I have seen the Walker horse selected on At The Races but they do not mention what I see as the obvious worry and that is the soft going. Ed Walker had said he was concerned about soft ground for the horse when talking earlier in the season and that would have to be less than ideal.

Glen Shiel on the other hand has good Group 1 form on soft, with a win and two second places in Group 1 contests on soft. He hasn't competed in a Group 3 since winning one last August, so this is a drop in Class for him here. The downside is a poor run last time out but that was on fast ground.

Diligent Harry looked worth following but while he did quite well placing in decent races, those contests have not really worked out and he has been absent for 11 weeks. He is 4 lbs worse in with Tabdeed from an earlier contest where he beat the Burrows runner a nose and Tabdeed in turn has ground to make up with Great Ambassador. Kings Lynn also ran in the contest where Diligent Harry and Tabdeed met, finishing a disappointing 6th as the 9/4 Fav.

I am reluctant to desert Great Ambassador but it is hard to forget the trainer comments about soft going and hard to ignore that Glen Shiel is a Group 1 winner with his ground at a course where he has won before and where he finished runner up in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot.

3.15 Ascot Glen Shiel 7/2

Glen Shiel/Great Ambassador RF

Hurricane Ivor and Glen Shiel in a double and 4xRF doubles on the two races.

Good luck to all players today.

 

Regarding Fearby, as Stick says, he has a lot in hand on the Ratings. Officially ranked 104, he is 13 lbs ahead of the next highest horse with an official rating. If this were a Handicap, he would have to give 13 lbs to that horse, Ernie's Valentine but under the conditions of this Auction Race, he only gives the lower rated horse 4 lbs. That leaves Fearby with a good bit in hand on the bare figures.

This is a massive field of 30 runners but there is a high percentage of no hopers based on the form so far. Still, with a field this big, will the draw be a factor? Fearby is in stall 18, which isn't far from the middle, so he may have options in any split.

The main opposition according to the betting is from Tatsumaki, who is 2/2 for Marco Botti. He needs more from his OR of 88 but is still unexposed and gets 6 lbs from Fearby.

The aforementioned Ernie's Valentine is improving, having gone up 7 lbs for winning a Nursery last time. You couldn't rule out further improvement and his debut win reads very well, having beaten Wings Of War, who later landed the Group 2 Mill Reef. Some good horses ran in that debut win for Ernie's Valentine but he was disappointing when 6th of 8 at Ascot when running off 82 in a Nursery and that run concerns me.

Richard Hannon likes these big money pots and Foden looks the most promising of his four entries. He hosed up last time at Lingfield but that looked a bad race to me and it hasn't worked out well. It was on soft ground and was over 7F, so he will need more toe today over 6F on Good but he does get 10 lbs from the favourite and the Hannon family are foxes with these types of races.

The one at the very bottom caught my eye as a potential danger. Stubble Field gave warm favourite Khanjar a fright when beaten only a neck on debut at offs of 80/1. That was awarded a RPR of 77, which is 27 lbs behind Fearby but she could easily improve from that and the 4th and 5th from that race have managed to win next time out. Stubble Field gets a handy 15 lbs from the favourite but that still leaves ground to make up. On the plus side, she finished well last time and was four lengths clear of the third, so it was very promising for a cheaply bought filly.

I have done Fearsby at 3/1 as it seems a big price for a class act. I was a shade disappointed to see only 5 places for each-way in this cavalry charge and it puts me off trying one each way at bigger odds. Instead I just had a win saver on Stubble Field at 12/1.

2.20 Newmarket Fearby 3/1

Saver Stubble Field 12/1

 

Ronaldo shot on target. Evens with skybet (max £10) and Paddy Power (max £20). And Hills going 2/1 Ronaldo anytime scorer (max £10)

 

14:05 Ascot - Dakota Gold

(Quiet season so far but softer ground conditions will help this excellent sprinter a lot. Hoping for a really good run in this Listed Class-1 sprint. Connor Beasley rides for the successful Northern trainer Michael Dods. Best price 4/1 readily-available at time of writing.)

 

Saturday’s racing poses a bit of a dilemma. If the weather forecast is remotely accurate, rain is likely to show up and create false ground at some point during the afternoon as the rain loosens the turf before eventually sinking into the ground.

I do not find today’s cards at HQ or Ascot particularly inspiring.

According to the France Galop website, the going at Longchamp is très souple (very soft) and reading 3.9 on the penetrometer. I suspect any significant rain before Sunday is going to make for upset results.

Frankie is over in Paris and rides Kemari for Charlie Appleby in the opening Prix Chaudenay (12:23) but James Doyle rides the yard’s other runner, Manobo, who hosed up in a Listed race at Saint Cloud last time on easy ground and should take this step up in class with the ten length runner up that day Kertez re-opposing (do they think the extra two furlongs will make that much difference?). The biggest threat should be Aidan O’Brien’s Interpretation, fourth in the St Leger under Hollie Doyle after winning at Leopardstown and blinkered for the first time today.

In the Prix Daniel Wildenstein (1:33), last year’s winner The Revenant is looking to repeat but he has done nothing in two starts this term and faces better rivals than when beating four (including Olmedo) last year. His two principal opponents run in the Godolphin colours, with Prix du Moulin third Victor Ludorum preferred to Frankie’s ride Real World, easy winner of a York Group 3 last time, blinkered for the first time but has never run on soft ground.

The overseas challenge in the Prix Du Cadran (2:15) looks very strong, including the real reason that Frankie is in Paris: Stradivarius. Whilst he has won the Gold Cup twice on soft ground, it is not really his favoured conditions and although he is the best horse in the race, he must be susceptible to the James Doyle ridden mudlark Trueshan. There are a couple of Irish raiders in the race, including last year’s winner Princess Zoe, but most of the field are simply not good enough to trouble the three that I have mentioned.

The other Group 1 event on the card follows but the Prix de Royallieu (2:50) looks like a home win. Ribblesdale winner Loving Dream ran abysmally in the Yorkshire Oaks and was only fifth in the Lingfield Oaks Trial on soft ground when favourite. Yesyes is surely out of her class after being third in the Park Hill following a Listed win at Chester and it is hard to make a case for either of the Ballydoyle contenders. Roger Varian’s Believe In Love has been well beaten on soft ground twice this term in Blighty but did win a moderate Saint Cloud Group 3 race last year. So this race looks to be between the front two in the betting. Valia has been fitted with the blinkers following her third place in the Prix de Pomone last time, which was won by Arc contender Raabihah, but between the pair of them was JOIE DE SOIR, having only her fourth start and I am expecting Andre Fabre’s filly to confirm that running for Mickael Barzalona in the Magnier colours.

Does anybody fancy Black Lives Matter in the 3:25?

The last of the Group races is the Prix Dollar (4:00). Whilst the race looks very close on the ratings with a field including Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange winner Saiydabad and Listed winner Magny Cours for the home team, this looks up for export to one of the British raiders: Group 3 winner Megallan comes from the Gosden barn but the best he has done on soft or heavy is fourth, so the vote goes to the William Haggas trained DUBAI HONOUR, winner of the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano last time at Deauville, a repeat of which should be good enough to win here.

 

Had a go at the Longchamp card for a bit of fun.

12:23 - Manobo 4/6
12:58 - Jalela 6/1
1:33 - Real World 5/2
2:15 - Call The Wind 16/1 Ew
2:50 - Willow 20/1 Ew
3:25 - Purple Pay 8/1
4:00 - Cadillac 8/1
4:35 - Roberto Mount 7/1
5:10 - Calconta 9/1

 

Ascot 3.50
River Nymph 11/2

 

He is on the sodding bench!

 

Gowran Park
14,10 Frazel Express 8/1 e/w five places

Ascot
15,15 Ainsdale 25/1 e/w bet365 and Coral four places, 22/1 sky five places.

 

Cashed out my Skybet and Paddys stake but Hills ive had to leave.

 

Maybe went to the well once too often with Hurricane Ivor today. The conditions look pretty bad and Tis Marvellous has done well there today. Minzaal has run a cracker after his absence.

 

Huge disappointment that. Am very much afraid Dakota is not the horse he was. Take nothing away from the winner though, a fine performance and very well-ridden by Kirby.

 

There is always one to save the bookies and Fearby had no answer to the pace of Tatsumaki, who made a winning move that paralysed his field.

Fearby came through for a distant second, while Stubble Field managed 5th, annoyingly after drifting 10 pts to 22/1 and an each-way price.

Nice performance from Tatsumaki there and he looks promising.

 

Great Ambassador NR.