Energumene or Shishkin?

I thought this potential clash of the titans deserved its own thread. We are just 4 days away from what is probably the most anticipated clash of jumping superstars since the Kauto Star v Denman era.

Saturday's Clarence House Chase at Ascot has 5 still engaged and, if all goes to plan between now and Saturday, the two most exciting chasers in training, Shishkin and Energumene, are due to clash in Royal Berkshire.

According to Turftrax, there are no extremes of going expected and we should have a perfect mix of soft, good-soft in places as the forecast remains dry over the coming days:



The handicapper currently has Shishkin (OR 172) just a pound ahead of Energumene (OR 171) but the bookmakers take a much clearer view of things and have Shishkin at a general 4/9 fav with Energumene at a general 9/4 (Bet365 go a standout 11/4).

Last year's winner, First Flow, should ensure this is run at a true pace and it will be interesting to see what tactics they employ on Energumene. In all his 5 chases to date he has made his own running and has set a pace (even on heavy ground) which has left his rivals literally gasping for air. This was particularly impressive in the Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown at the end of April where he demolished Janidil (subsequent John Durkan runner-up and now rated 164) by 16 lengths. I assume they will attempt the same at Ascot and, if the 2021 winner First Flow tries to go with him, he will likely suffer the same fate as Notebook did at Gowran Park.

Shishkin will, I'm sure, be ridden in behind and the crucial question for me is: can he stay close enough to Energumene, particularly if he hits a flat spot at a crucial time in the race, without coming out of his comfort zone. If they come into the home straight and Nico is still sitting motionless on Shishkin then I think it will be very difficult for Energumene to repel him. However, if Energumene has a 5 length lead and Nico is pushing away on Shishkin then he may have become uncatchable.

It is a fascinating race from so many aspects, not least tactically, and Paul Townend and Nico De Boinville will have to be on their A-game, constantly assessing their opponent and, if necessary, adapting tactics to suit.

This could, of course, be the first of several clashes between these 2 horses over the coming months and years and it will certainly be the biggest test either horse has faced in their respective careers. As I am not particularly emotionally attached to either horse I am trying to look at the race objectively. From a betting standpoint I think Shishkin is way too short - I could never back him at that price - and my gut feel is that, if Shishkin has a chink, it could be being taken out of his comfort zone right at the time when he can hit a bit of a flat spot. If Energumene can really power up the hill from Swinley Bottom and get a good few lengths advantage turning for home then he may be able to repel Shishkin's closing charge and hang on. I think that is what Paul Townend will try and do, and Nico will have to try and keep Shishkin close enough to reel him in without ruining his mount's chances.

So who do you think will win, and why?

 

I know what you mean - one of the trainers stating on Thursday „we weren’t 100% happy with him blah blah blah“

 

Got to fill my days somehow Tam

 

To be honest horse racing should be ashamed of itself if it can't get this on. The two should meet here at Ascot, then at Cheltenham and thereafter at either Aintree or Punchestown. Both camps have publicly stated they are training their horses for this race and it would need a bloody good reason for either of them to pull out now.

It looks like Paul Townend has some rides booked at Lingfield Friday which augurs well.

If this race doesn't happen I might just agree to say "**** horse racing"

 

Both horses declared this morning. I feel like a child waiting for Christmas morning ........................... Pleeeeeeeease let it happen

 

Betting and going update:

Shishkin best price 4/6 (Boylesports)
Energumene best price 15/8 (Bet365)

The home straight has gone good-soft:

 

Quite a change in the betting from when I started this thread and that 11/4 Bet365 on Energumene was indeed stand out. Just under half an hour to the off and Shishkin out to 5/6 in places and Energumene a general 5/4 shot. They could even flip-flop before the off.