Daily Racing Thread Saturday 2nd. July 2022

Saturday's Meetings

Naas
Flat 8 Races 1:25-5:25p.m.
Haydock
Flat 7 Races 1:35-4:55p.m.
Sandown
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m
Beverley
Flat 7 Races 2:18-5:45p.m.
Leicester
Flat 7 Races 2:45-6:05p.m.
Bellewstown(E)
N/H 8 Races 4:35-8:10p.m.
Carlisle(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:50-8:50p.m.
Nottingham(E)
Flat 6 Races 6:00-8:30p.m.

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Good Luck

 

In the Coral-Eclipse Stakes tomorrow (15:35), over a distance just short of 10f, I fancy the chances of the older horses rather than the two three-year-olds. If one of the older horses can really set a strong gallop, so as to negate a sprint finish, then I think there is a chance of a minor upset here. Sandown is suited to front-runners and/or a horse that can stay close-up. In this respect, and without further ado, my choice is Alenquer, who will be ridden by Tom Marquand for the red-hot William Haggas yard. I would add that Mishriff should also be well-up with the pace too. However, I'll stick with Alenquer! 7/1 best price at time of writing, available in nearly all places.

Enjoy the day folks, and back all the winners!

 

5:25 Naas - Vlad The Impaler 16/1 ew 5 places. Another one from my tracker. This one a little different however. Didn't go in my tracker because i thought it was unlucky in running or anything like that. It went in because in my cynical mind it was been fiddled with and deliberately given a poor ride on stable debut. So today is definitely a speculative bet rather than me thinking the horse is due. I could be seeing things that aren't there and have it completely wrong but i've had a go today and will watch the run with interest. It was 25/1 last night when i got my tracker notification but unfortunately for me, i usually like to wait until the day of the race, especially on a Saturday to put my bets on.

 

Anybody with a house in Newton le Willows must wear wellies most of the year and have a well watered garden, possibly with a pond. So Haydock reverts to type with the word ‘soft’ appearing in the going description.

The Oaks form gets a little more scrutiny in the Lancashire Oaks with fifth home Kawida taking on her elders; however, given the poor showing of the winner in the Irish Derby the only positive for Ed Walker’s filly is that the third won the Prix de Diane over ten furlongs. The reality is that she was out of her depth at Epsom and a couple of the others look too good for her here. Sea La Rosa won first time up over the track and trip with Nell Quickly third but she needs to improve on that here. Eshaada also strips race fit but she ran like a drain at Newbury and retained rider Jim Crowley is here as Shadwell have no runners at Sandown. She is the only Group 1 winner in the field; however, FREE WIND was an easy winner of the Park Hill and has won 4 of her 6 starts up to this level but the down side is that she drops back two furlongs, it is her seasonal debut and she has never run on soft ground. I have to put my free bet on something.

The betting on the Old Newton Cup is a complete joke. Some idiot will be along soon to state that 7/4 Gaassee is value because if this race was run 1,000 times it would win more than 363 times. The price reflects the location of its home. Two of Liverpool Knight’s three career wins have been on the kitty litter at Wolverhampton but he won first time for his new trainer on soft ground at Windsor, receives a stone from the favourite and is only raised 6lb for that easy win. Secret Shadow ended 2021 with a win in a good race at Newbury on heavy ground and was a close third on her reappearance but the two furlong drop in trip puts me off. Get Shirty followed up winning a valuable Hamilton handicap with victory at Royal Ascot over two furlongs further and would have been my bet has the rain stayed away but I think Liverpool Knight has the most positives now.

 

Over at Sandown, the Timeform Ratings Banker Heredia should win the 3:00 and the odds reflect her superiority over the opposition.

Eight face the starter for the opening Coral Charge. Neither of the two three year old fillies look up to this level even in receipt of the WFA and sex allowance. Ignoring his King’s Stand no show, Arecibo would have chances based on his third in the Temple Stakes but only has two wins in the last three years. Existent has also been out of his depth since his second in the Palace House but was behind Arecibo at Haydock. Supporters of Method have long memories of the promise of his juvenile career and he has never won over five, or indeed since he was two. Equilateral has won three races in the last three years – all at Meydan, two of them the Dubai Dash 2020 and 2021 handicap – and he is not getting any quicker at seven. So this really looks to be between the two market principals. The three year old Mitbaahy is clearly going the right direction, winning going away last time over course and distance in a Listed race, and gets the WFA that starts to favour the Classic generation at this time of year; however, the progressive RAASEL has won seven of his last nine, all handicaps bar the latest win in a Haydock Listed race beating Dragon Symbol. Looking at the form, whichever of the two wins there will not be much in it as they are both held up and brought late.

The first meeting of the generations in the Eclipse poses the annual quandary: are the Classic generation good enough? Visually Vadeni was very impressive winning the Prix Du Jockey Club as he liked and you would think that Appleby has some idea how good his Modern Games is that was well beaten in third there; however, Vadeni acting on the fast ground has to be taken on trust as Jean-Claude Rouget’s colt has run five of his six races on watered France Galop tracks. Native Trail’s only defeat was to his stablemate in the 2000 Guineas and he now steps up to ten furlongs, which should be okay as there is stamina on the dam’s side. I think Native Trail is being stepped up in trip so that Coroebus can stick to the mile races. Lord North has become somewhat unreliable. He has won the Dubai Turf the last two years but was no match for Alenquer in the Tattersalls Gold Cup over this trip and there were excuses last time at Royal Ascot. At Ascot, Bay Bridge never got close to winner State Of Rest; and that one had been just behind Alenquer at The Curragh, so the collateral form lines all point to the Haggas four year old from those three older horses. Strictly on the ratings, MISHRIFF is the best horse in the field but has not been seen since his no show defending his Saudi Cup crown. He slammed Alenquer by six lengths in the Juddmonte but was third in this race beaten nearly four lengths by St Mark’s Basilica last term on easy ground. I think he can bounce back on today’s quicker ground with regular partner David Egan aboard.

 

Very happy for the Charlton Stable's Sinjaari. If ever a horse deserved to win it is this one, at last he got his head in from. A step-up to 'Listed' is worth a go for him, Roger Charlton's son could be right in this respect?

(Too late to put it up on here, but did have a couple of shekels on Sinjaari at 7/2. Honest I did ! )

 

Go on Swanny

 

Well done Oddy, you got it absolutely right with the Eclipse winner!

 

Gotta love the French. Not only did they send over a classy horse for the Eclipse but also a couple of quality lasses to lead him up

 

Well done to those in the winner’s enclosure today. Not a penny on the Old Newton Cup winner because I do not bet when it is soft. Free Wind was a free bet and I got 11/2 – she would have won by a street if she had not nearly got put through the rails; clearly a Group 1 filly.

The finish to the Eclipse would have made a great photograph if I had been there, with the field in a line across the track with a furlong to go. In the end this was a race where virtually the whole field ran to their ratings.

When Vadeni came up on the outside, I thought he was going to pick up and win handsomely; however, he did not find much up the hill (perhaps that was the quick ground). I expect we may see him next in the Juddmonte or the Irish Champion. Native Trail hung right into the whip and that closed up the gap that David Egan was hoping to go through on Mishriff, so he had to switch and was, arguably, unlucky flying at the death for second.

If we ignored the manner in which the race was run then this would suggest that there is not much between the Classic generation and their elders. I am not convinced that is the case. The race was only five seconds quicker than last year when Addeybb cut out the running on good to soft ground in a field of four.

 

Yeah seems like I was imagining things. Horse just appears to be a bit ****

 

I'd expect Havlin to appeal that, and I think he'd succeed. Grotesque decision - the gap was there, and he was perfectly entitled to put his horse into it.

 

Strange decisions by Stewards. A lot of froth when Hanagan quite rightly got a ban at Royal Ascot, but what about St Marks Basilica last year?

 

I would love to see an aerial view of this because I don't think the angle of the camera is telling the true story.

To me the strip of rails on the "straight" between the 3 and 2 furlong post isn't straight in regards to the next couple of furlongs, which makes it very difficult for jockeys to keep "straight". As such, I am not sure how much Crowley deviates from a line and how much is visually confusing. Similarly the second home then comes across the Crowley horse in the later stages. I think you could argue that movement was more of a deviation than the one in the incident.

I do think it was a poor ride by Havlin as well, given he got the horse stuck in the pocket and tried to find a route up the rail. I don't think he was going to get a clean run up the rail at all, and whilst the incident was bad, I think he got extremely lucky too.

I don't think this is dangerous riding in the way Paul Hanagan ride at Royal Ascot was, but more of a circumstances incident and misjudged rides by both jockeys. It is fortunate all are ok!

 

I think Crowley shut the door deliberately to prevent himself looking a mug. The gap was there and Havlin rightly went for it. The fact that the horse responded and got Havlin out of his predicament is testament to how good she is. A horse worth following again this season.

NB; I could be slightly biased as I really dont like Crowley.