The £10k Betting Experiment (Stage 1) - FINISHED

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Ron

Ron

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Forum Moderator
Jan 25, 2011
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On the lead up to my retirement I planned to set aside £10k for a betting bank. Based on my performances of late in competitions, it's just as well we had more pressing needs come the day and the betting never materialised.

Instead, I have decided to see what might have happened.

I'm going to start off with a speculative £1k win on Themilanhorse 15.55 Wincanton @ 5/2

I won't stick this thread as it will more than likely be in my interests for it to quickly disappear.

I will also include some post race analysis, particularly on losing bets, as this hindsight may be helpful to inexperienced punters that may be looking in.

Additional helpful comments from more experienced punters would be invaluable.

EDIT. For the purposes of this exercise all bets will be with established bookmakers. No bets will be placed on the Exchanges because, without actually placing the bet, there is no guarantee that the bet will be matched. In the event of laying a bet I must offer better odds than the best odds available from established bookmakers.

WARNING. This is mainly me talking to myself, making betting decisions with a fictional £10k

Completion of exercise: I have been operating 2 plans. Plan A is simply a running account; Plan B ploughs all profits into a Piggy Bank with the Betting Bank being reduced by losing bets. From today (Tuesday 3rd July 2012) I will be operating Plan B only (retrospectively) and the exercise will be completed when my Betting Bank is expired.

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Final Result:

£10,203* profit.


*This assumes that Sea Moon fails to win the Arc de Triomphe. Should he win then there will be another £700 to add to the Piggy Bank.
 
Ron said:
On the lead up to my retirement I planned to set aside £10k for a betting bank. Based on my performances of late in competitions, it's just as well we had more pressing needs come the day and the betting never materialised.

So I have decided to see what might have happened.

I'm going to start off with a speculative £1k win on Themilanhorse 15.55 Wincanton @ 5/2



I won't stick this thread as it will more than likely be in my interests for it to quickly disappear.
Click to expand...

And if it comes in how sick will you be?For the sake of your health i wouldnt even bother looking unless you are somewhat masochistic.
 
Ron,


My honest advice, and I generally mean it, would be to completely forget the idea completely. £10k might be a lot to you, it might be nothing. Whatever it is, it can be better spent.


Set yourself a five pount note aside on a Saturday for a small bit of fun and leave it at that.


The bigger the stake, the sicker you feel when you lose, and it totally takes away all love and romance of the sport- you'll very quickly become a financially-orientated viewer, as opposed to one who simply loves the sport for what it is.
 
This is for fun folks. No different to our betting comps.

If I turn the £10k into £100k (some hopes) I know that I would never have risked it with real money. If it all goes I can have a good laugh.
 
cyclonic111 said:
You know you probably wouldn't have punted as you have today, had you the cash. You probably would have agonised over how to invest the money. Maybe done some real homework. Not that I'm suggesting that you didn't today. :)
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But you are right Cyc; I didn't do my homework. I would invest in Timeform and hope to find a good bet now and then but then spend ages studying every other horse in the race to see if I could be put off. The plan was that if I did this methodically and with patience I would aim to get one winner in 3. As I don't have the money to risk now it's only natural that I will be a bit more speculative.
 
If I had 10k to blow it'd be on my own horse (in a syndicate) rather than on other people's in the form of bets!!
 
There's a thing that paddypower done called Bet Dash ( betdash.com ) where you can either do it for free or for different amounts of money e.g. £1 , £2, £5, £10 etc and basically you start with 100k and you can bet on anything and you get 21 days and depending on your stake etc you win different amounts e.g. you could get to 500k and then stop the game and cash out, if you staked £5 then you'll probably have won £20 or something, or if you manage to get to a million you win a nice amount plus a free bonus round where you can win more.
Just thought i'd let you know if you wanted to try turn 100k into a million for example with a small investment or for free as you said above ( i know you said 10k to 100k ).
 
A lot of money has come for newcomer Speaking of Which in the 17.30 at the Curragh enabling Violet Lashes to drift out to 11/4. I'm having a small dabble (just £40) on Violet Lashes at 11/4 in the hope that the newcomer is not as good as Kissed against whom VL ran a cracker.
 
That'll teach me not to look at all the runners. I always go for Teofilo offspring and didn't even notice it running until I looked at the result. What a plonker. VL turned out to be a bit of a plodder and didn't compliment Kissed at all. And it drifted out further as money came for yet another plodder. Still, only £40 down the drain. Still £2,460 up so mustn't complain. But stupidity could have cost me dearly there.
 
Ron Kissed won as she liked that day despite running green, Jockey looked after her in a way that suggests she is very good.
 
Looking at this race further, I have for many years also shown an interest in any 2yo that came 5th/6th in a field of 12 or more on début and is having its second run. The winner was 5th of 19 on début. So, combining this with it being a son of Teofilo, plus the late gamble on 2 horses in the race that I had discarded, and the fact that the winner was 14/1, surely i should have spotted this one for a small ew dabble. Fact is, I didn't.

Lesson learned: However good one horse looks in a race, always examine every horse in the race to uncover any potential dangers/ alternative wagers. Then decide whether or not to get involved after all.
 
Sometime the problem is deciding which race to play on Ron - just 27 to choose from today but some days you are looking at 40+

There are lots of race to avoid IMHO - handicaps, maidens, novice races of any kind. Probably only leaves you 3 or 4 races each day to look at- If I were doing it full time that's where I'd start <ok>

Best of luck with your endeavours
 
Thanks RV. That comment however, may have given me a little added confidence in VL as it wasn't pushed too hard and the pair drew well clear. I guess the other runners were relative donkeys.
 
OddDog said:
Sometime the problem is deciding which race to play on Ron - just 27 to choose from today but some days you are looking at 40+

There are lots of race to avoid IMHO - handicaps, maidens, novice races of any kind. Probably only leaves you 3 or 4 races each day to look at- If I were doing it full time that's where I'd start

Best of luck with your endeavours
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Exactly Oddy. That's the approach I was adopting years ago when I did bet. It's how my betting ceased as most races were crossed off and then, using more and more hindsight, I couldn't find anything to bet on in the remaining races.
 
Ron I thought VL would win today . Regarding the maiden VL and Kissed pulled clear in the winner of the 3.00 today was in there
 
I sometimes think novice races can be great for a bet because often the trainer alone can result in a given horse being favourite. Also a decent run behind a hype horse can also result in a horse being an unworthy favourite.
 
Well spotted RV. It was just over 15l behind VL. Interesting. Maybe all those in the 3.00 are relative donkeys. Always difficult to tell when a lot of decent 2yos are only running for the experience in their débuts.
 
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